Will tariffs increase prices for holiday shoppers? Here’s what the data shows

Tariffs could push up prices for holiday shoppers this year, but experts say the impact may be smaller than many predicted.A new LendingTree analysis estimates added costs for the average American. It finds, if the current tariff levels had been in place during the 2024 holiday season, consumers would’ve shouldered $28.6 billion, or $132 per shopper. “I think, for consumers, the best thing they can do is plan for that worst-case scenario and factor in some increases into their budget,” said LendingTree’s Chief Consumer Finance Analyst Matt Schulz. “It’s too soon to know for sure exactly what the impact is going to be, but what is pretty clear is that the perception for most consumers is that they expect things to be more expensive,” Schulz added. A new survey from NerdWallet bears that out. It finds that nearly two-thirds of holiday shoppers this year are concerned about the impact of tariffs. “I would say that the bark has been worse than the bite so far,” said Ted Rossman, a senior analyst for Bankrate. The latest Consumer Price Index shows that some popular gift categories have seen modest price increases since last year. Jewelry prices grew by 1.7% from September 2024 to September 2025. Footwear increased by 1.3%. On the other hand, toy and apparel prices were relatively flat. Televisions fell by 6% and smartphones dropped by nearly 15% in the same time period. Rossman said there are several reasons why prices haven’t moved as much as expected. “One is that a lot of retailers stocked up early, and they brought merchandise in before the tariffs took effect. They also have been absorbing some of these higher prices into their margins,” Rossman said. “That may not last forever, but it should at least get us through the holidays.” President Donald Trump nodded to that trend in a Truth Social post on Monday. He said product stockpiles built up before tariffs were implemented are now running low. “That heavy inventory purchase is now, however, wearing thin, and soon Tariffs will be paid on everything they apply to, without avoidance, and the amounts payable to the USA will SKYROCKET, over and above the already historic levels of dollars received,” Trump wrote. Asked about concerns that tariffs will take a toll on holiday shoppers, the White House condemned “endless doomsday fantasizing by the Fake News and Democrats,” and pointed to strong consumer spending and retail sales.”Retailers and payment processors are seeing no signs of slowdown in America’s economic resurgence, and Americans can count on the economic agenda that created historic working-class prosperity in President Trump’s first term to again pay off in his second term,” said White House Spokesman Kush Desai in a statement. Some major retailers are downplaying the impact of tariffs on holiday shopping. “The bigger companies are more able to weather things like inflation and tariffs,” Rossman said. “I would argue that it falls more on small businesses.” Amazon said in a statement, “Prices have not increased outside of normal fluctuations across millions of items on Amazon, and we continue to meet or beat other retailers’ prices across the vast selection of products in our store.” Target also pointed to a range of holiday deals and said the company has many strategies to mitigate the impact of tariffs. Price changes are a “very last resort,” according to Target. Walmart didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment on Tuesday.For more coverage from the Washington News Bureau:

WASHINGTON —

Tariffs could push up prices for holiday shoppers this year, but experts say the impact may be smaller than many predicted.

A new LendingTree analysis estimates added costs for the average American. It finds, if the current tariff levels had been in place during the 2024 holiday season, consumers would’ve shouldered $28.6 billion, or $132 per shopper.

“I think, for consumers, the best thing they can do is plan for that worst-case scenario and factor in some increases into their budget,” said LendingTree’s Chief Consumer Finance Analyst Matt Schulz.

“It’s too soon to know for sure exactly what the impact is going to be, but what is pretty clear is that the perception for most consumers is that they expect things to be more expensive,” Schulz added.

A new survey from NerdWallet bears that out. It finds that nearly two-thirds of holiday shoppers this year are concerned about the impact of tariffs.

“I would say that the bark has been worse than the bite so far,” said Ted Rossman, a senior analyst for Bankrate.

The latest Consumer Price Index shows that some popular gift categories have seen modest price increases since last year. Jewelry prices grew by 1.7% from September 2024 to September 2025. Footwear increased by 1.3%.

On the other hand, toy and apparel prices were relatively flat. Televisions fell by 6% and smartphones dropped by nearly 15% in the same time period.

Rossman said there are several reasons why prices haven’t moved as much as expected.

“One is that a lot of retailers stocked up early, and they brought merchandise in before the tariffs took effect. They also have been absorbing some of these higher prices into their margins,” Rossman said. “That may not last forever, but it should at least get us through the holidays.”

President Donald Trump nodded to that trend in a Truth Social post on Monday. He said product stockpiles built up before tariffs were implemented are now running low.

“That heavy inventory purchase is now, however, wearing thin, and soon Tariffs will be paid on everything they apply to, without avoidance, and the amounts payable to the USA will SKYROCKET, over and above the already historic levels of dollars received,” Trump wrote.

Asked about concerns that tariffs will take a toll on holiday shoppers, the White House condemned “endless doomsday fantasizing by the Fake News and Democrats,” and pointed to strong consumer spending and retail sales.

“Retailers and payment processors are seeing no signs of slowdown in America’s economic resurgence, and Americans can count on the economic agenda that created historic working-class prosperity in President Trump’s first term to again pay off in his second term,” said White House Spokesman Kush Desai in a statement.

Some major retailers are downplaying the impact of tariffs on holiday shopping.

“The bigger companies are more able to weather things like inflation and tariffs,” Rossman said. “I would argue that it falls more on small businesses.”

Amazon said in a statement, “Prices have not increased outside of normal fluctuations across millions of items on Amazon, and we continue to meet or beat other retailers’ prices across the vast selection of products in our store.”

Target also pointed to a range of holiday deals and said the company has many strategies to mitigate the impact of tariffs. Price changes are a “very last resort,” according to Target.

Walmart didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment on Tuesday.

For more coverage from the Washington News Bureau: