“Is that true?” marveled Marlins president of baseball operations Peter Bendix. “That is amazing. That is mind-boggling.”
The game has undergone rapid change this decade, accelerated by year-round training methods popularized at facilities such as Driveline and propelled farther by the COVID-19 shutdown of 2020, when minor leaguers were sent home and, without games, spent the entire year training to add power and sharpen their pitch shapes.
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A huge number of pitchers came back with eye-popping velocity gains. The genie was out of the bottle. Teams and pitchers — who typically get paid more for throwing hard, and get more big league opportunities when they do so — both saw paths to push for more … more … MORE in ways that have fundamentally altered the game.
The average four-seam fastball had seemingly leveled off, moving incrementally from 93.1 m.p.h. in 2015 to 93.4 in ’20. That number, however, has undergone a more rapid increase to 94.5 over the last five seasons.
“Ten years ago, to talk about somebody throwing 100 miles per hour was a topic of conversation,” said Diamondbacks general manager Mike Hazen. “Now, everybody has two guys in their bullpen that throw 100 miles an hour, and it’s not uncommon for us in the minor leagues to look at our game report on a nightly basis and see multiple minor leaguers throwing 100 miles per hour.”
“I can’t say I’m surprised anymore [by a pitcher throwing 100],” said longtime reliever Adam Ottavino, whose velocity peaked at 99.4 m.p.h. “I’m a little numb to it. I shouldn’t be, because it’s crazy — like, objectively crazy.”
More than three-quarters of all pitchers in the big leagues now throws 95 m.p.h. How widespread might throwing 100 become? No one pretends to know the answer, but it seems fairly clear that pitchers will continue to push their top-end velocity, mindful that if they don’t, someone else will do so.
“You throw 95, you can go to Mexico or independent ball now. They’re not impressed by that anymore,” said Ottavino. “You’ve got no choice but to go for it.”
Right now, pitchers are training to do just that. In fairness, baseball is far from alone in the sports world in terms of speed being a driver for training — and pushing the limits of possibility.
“I don’t think it’s that dissimilar from Olympic records. They get broken every four years. Who knows what the human body is capable of?” said Dodgers GM Brandon Gomes. “So I wouldn’t bet against a higher percentage throwing 100, but maybe we’re approaching [a plateau].”
Then again, maybe not. The ability of a pitcher like Red Sox hurler Payton Tolle to go from an average velocity as a college junior of 91 m.p.h. and topping out at 96 to sitting at 96-97 and topping out at 101 in the big leagues one year later hints at the effectiveness of velocity training programs — and of the desire for teams to turn up the knob on heaters.
The Sox were the only team that didn’t throw a single 100 m.p.h. pitch in the 2023-24 seasons. They viewed their lack of top-end velocity as a shortcoming to address, part of the motivation in trading for Garrett Crochet and signing Aroldis Chapman.
“We’ve seen the way that power stuff performs over the course of the season, but particularly in the postseason,” Red Sox chief baseball officer Craig Breslow said of those pursuits. “The ability to get swing-and-miss do that on the heels of overpowering stuff was very important.”
Crochet, Chapman, and Tolle were among the 12 (!) pitchers in the Sox organization in 2025 to clear 100 m.p.h., joining a group that included Jordan Hicks and Jorge Alcala as well as prospects such as Luis Perales, David Sandlin, and Juan Valera.
The ever-increasing volume of hard throwers in the game has numerous repercussions. Foremost, with pitchers being asked to push their limits, a growing number of hurlers are exceeding them and breaking.
“How do you mitigate the health concerns that come along with [throwing 100 m.p.h.]?” wondered Gomes. “As an industry, we’ve got to put our heads together to try to figure that out.”
Moreover, the ubiquity of baseball’s smoke show is not only shortening the careers of pitchers through injuries, but also of position players who find it increasingly difficult to hold their own against top-end velocity.
It used to be that an inability to handle pitches in the upper-90s and triple digits due to declining bat speed represented a liability for hitters. Now, it’s a fatal flaw. In 2024 and ′25, there were just 15 big league position players age 36 or older — the fewest since 1973, the year when the designated hitter was introduced.
“It’s harder and harder for players in their 30s to stay good,” said Bendix. “I personally believe that is not those players getting worse, it is younger players being better and better.”
And, of course, throwing harder and harder.
BLOOM’S DAY
Cardinals-Sox trade ‘a little strange’
Chaim Bloom consummated his first major deal as Cardinals president of baseball operations by striking a trade to send starter Sonny Gray to the Red Sox in exchange for fellow righthander Richard Fitts and minor league lefthander Brandon Clarke. What was it like for Bloom to deal with his former club?
“It feels a little strange, obviously,” said Bloom. “But at the end of the day, that doesn’t really impact things. We’re trying to do the best we can for our club, no matter who [a trade] is with. If we accomplish our objectives, then it doesn’t matter, it shouldn’t matter where I worked last or anything other than what’s best for the St. Louis Cardinals.”
And the Cardinals matched up well with the Red Sox given the different positions of the organizations. The Sox wanted to upgrade their 2026 roster, and Gray — with one year of team control remaining — accomplishes that. (Three separate evaluators described him, however, as a strong No. 3 as opposed to the true No. 2 starter chief baseball officer Craig Breslow suggested the Sox hoped to add this offseason.)
The Cardinals, meanwhile, are looking for players who can contribute for the longer term. The Red Sox’ pitching depth (not a typo!) positioned them well to strike a deal.
Fitts is likely to compete for a rotation spot, and has six remaining years of team control. Clarke is more of a lottery ticket with electrifying stuff but multiple unknowns, with health/durability and control foremost on the list of questions about him.
“We have somewhere we need to go. We’re not there now,” said Bloom. “The way to get there is through building on our core of talent and having promising young talent that can be with us for many years and that have their best ahead of them, we hope.”
GOOD DEAL
Potentially better Fitts in St. Louis than Boston
The trade of Richard Fitts to St. Louis in the Sonny Gray deal served as a barometer of change in the Red Sox organization.
When he was still the Sox’ chief baseball officer, Chaim Bloom actually explored acquiring Fitts at the 2023 trade deadline in a potential Alex Verdugo deal. The deal didn’t get done during the season. After Bloom was dismissed by the Sox that September, his replacement – Breslow — made his first major transaction by closing a deal with the Yankees for the righthander as part of a package for Verdugo, who was one year from free agency.
At the time, the Sox were, like the Cardinals now, focused more on future value than the present. They had a glaring lack of internal rotation depth that Fitts helped to address.
Eventually, Fitts performed well in his big league debut in 2024 then had a standout spring training in ′25 to break camp in the rotation. However, the team’s improved back-of-the-rotation depth positioned them to trade Fitts again — at a time when the compass guiding the Sox is pointed more toward 2026 than the future.
Fitts recognizes he might get a shot in St. Louis that might not have materialized in Boston.
“With this opportunity [with the Cardinals], if I am able to stay healthy, I think it’s just going to be a great fit and a way for me to stay in a rotation,” said Fitts. “I feel like I really grew as a pitcher with the Red Sox. When I came over from the Yankees to the Red Sox, it was like, ‘Oh, this would be cool if I get to be a big leaguer over here.’ And now, moving to this opportunity, it’s like, ‘I am a big leaguer. How can I fit into [the Cardinals] rotation?’ ”
Other Red Sox notes:
▪ Lefthander Chris Murphy had been with the Sox since the 2019 draft, one of the longest-tenured members of the organization. But when he received a call from chief baseball officer Craig Breslow earlier this month, he knew his tenure was ending.
“I was like, ‘Oh boy. It’s one of two — it’s a DFA or trade, and I hope it’s not a DFA,’ ” recalled Murphy.
Murphy, who went 3-0 with a 3.12 ERA for the Red Sox in 34⅔ relief innings in 2025 in his return from Tommy John surgery, immediately recognized a newfound sense of possibility with the news that he’d been dealt to the White Sox for minor league catcher Ronny Hernandez.
“My first thing was, ‘I wonder how they see me. I wonder if I can start,’ ” said Murphy. “All things considered, I’m hopefully going to get an opportunity that I don’t think I was going to really get next year with the Red Sox.”
Chris Murphy was 3-0 with a 3.12 ERA for the Red Sox in 34⅔ relief innings in 2025 in his return from Tommy John surgery.Danielle Parhizkaran/Globe Staff
▪ The Sox want to add a top position player this offseason, whether through a reunion with third baseman Alex Bregman or another bat such as first baseman Pete Alonso. But even assuming they do so, multiple sources suggest they’re open to adding an additional complementary position player. One intriguing possibility: Switch-hitting infielder Jorge Polanco, who slashed his strikeout rate from 30 percent in 2024 to 16 percent in 2025 en route to a .265/.326/.495 line with 26 homers. The 32-year-old played second base and third for the Mariners, and is open to adding first to add to his versatility.
▪ Kristian Campbell is going to play winter ball, according to multiple sources. The infielder/outfielder’s likely team: The Caguas Criollos of the Puerto Rican Winter League, who are managed by Sox bench coach Ramón Vázquez.
▪ Outfielder Jhostynxon Garcia will play winter ball in his native Venezuela for the Navegantes del Magallanes from Dec. 5-21, the team announced. Also on that roster: 2018 Red Sox World Series champion Sandy Léon, longtime Sox minor leaguer Bryan Mata, Yasiel Puig, and Tucupita Marcano (banned for life by MLB in 2024 for betting on MLB games).
▪ As part of his managerial search, Nationals president of baseball operations Paul Toboni, the former Red Sox assistant general manager, interviewed longtime Sox coach Chad Epperson, who has spent the last four years managing the Double A Portland Sea Dogs. “Players absolutely love him, because I think they feel this genuine feeling of, ‘This guy really cares for me, but he also challenges the heck out of me,’ ” said Toboni. “My guess is that he’ll find himself on a major league staff at some point.”
▪ There were no talks between Gray and the Red Sox about a multi-year deal.
▪ Precedent suggests the Sox will keep exploring rotation upgrades even after their trade for Gray. Last offseason, after the Sox traded for Garrett Crochet, they explored other high-end trade options (including with the Pirates, Twins, and Mariners) before adding Walker Buehler.
For teams that are in the market for high-end starting pitching and willing to deal big league talent to get it, the Royals represent one of the most interesting potential trade partners of the offseason. Kansas City isn’t hiding its willingness to deal a rotation member for an outfielder. “Our starting pitching, we have some depth there,” said Royals general manager J.J. Picollo. “A lot of teams are looking for starting pitching, so if we have what they may be interested in, and they have an outfielder that would be of interest, then there’s potentially the opportunity to make a deal.” Is anyone, including lefthander Cole Ragans, off limits? “I wouldn’t say off limits,” said Picollo, who noted that the Royals were reluctant to deal either Seth Lugo or Michael Wacha after the two veteran righthnders committed to them via free agency. “There would have to be a really big return for one [starter] in particular.” That starter, of course, is Ragans. Though the Royals would prefer a righthanded-hitting outfielder, they won’t be tethered to the notion — making their considerable interest in Red Sox outfielder Jarren Duran at the trade deadline notable … News that the Angels are in talks with Anthony Rendon to buy out the final year of the third baseman’s seven-year, $245 million contract and permit him to retire serves as a reminder of the brutal waste of talent in Anaheim. There have been just 13 players in MLB history to win at least three MVP awards, and just two instances where any of those players were teammates: The 1940s-’50s Yankees, whose dynasty was fueled by the overlap of Joe DiMaggio, Yogi Berra, and Mickey Mantle, and the 2012-23 Angels, who had in-their-prime superstars Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani as well as post-peak Albert Pujols. Alas, the team’s massive investments in Pujols and Rendon yielded years of disappointment. The Angels have gone longer than any other team without appearing in the playoffs (11 years) or winning a playoff game (16 years). How heartbreaking must it be for Angels fans to watch Ohtani, finally getting his opportunity in the postseason, claim back-to-back titles with the Dodgers? … RIP George Altman, who passed away at 92. He began his pro baseball career with the Kansas City Monarchs, then went on to play nine years with the Cubs, Mets, and Cardinals, before spending several years in Japan. According to Negro Leagues Baseball Museum president Bob Kendrick, Altman joined Hall of Famer Larry Doby and former Dodgers great Don Newcombe as the only players ever to play in the Negro Leagues, MLB, and NPB … Happy 75th birthday, Mike Easler. The “Hit Man” spent two years as a Red Sox player (1984-85) and two more as a coach (1993-94), leaving a mark both times. As a player, after the Sox acquired him from the Pirates in a trade for lefthander John Tudor, he posted a monster campaign in 1984, hitting .313/.376/.516 (140 OPS+) with 27 homers. As a hitting coach, he had a huge influence on Mo Vaughn, whose coiled stance and high finish very much resembled Easler’s own distinctive swing. Easler now works with his former protégé at the Vaughn Sports Academy in Florida.
Alex Speier can be reached at alex.speier@globe.com. Follow him @alexspeier.