If peace negotiations are successful, the wider economic impact will likely depend on the extent to which trickier topics – such as territorial recognition – are addressed, and how enduring any ceasefire is perceived to be. In a more optimistic scenario – where a credible, long-term agreement is reached and investors feel confident about redeploying money in Ukraine – reconstruction efforts would likely have wider ripple effects on activity and, more importantly, sentiment in Eastern Europe.
Lower energy prices, depending on the extent of sanction removal, could also have a stimulative effect on global consumers. However, our energy team notes that Russian oil supply hasn’t materially fallen in recent years, so the impact on the global supply balance may not be significant. Although, admittedly, it would reduce a large amount of supply risk hanging over the oil market. The impact on the gas market would be more significant, but this would require Europe to start resuming its purchases of Russian natural gas.
Impact: Lower energy prices boost global growth. Some central banks (e.g. the Bank of England) may counterintuitively react dovishly, having recently reacted hawkishly to price spikes on fears of supply-driven inflation.