WASHINGTON (TNND) — United States and Ukrainian officials are projecting cautious optimism about the latest round of discussions for a peace plan that provides security guarantees after the war but have a long way to go in addressing territory issues and getting the Kremlin to sign off on it.
Proposals for a deal to end the fighting after four years of fending off Russia’s invasion could be finalized within days, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told reporters on Monday after talks in Berlin. Discussions have yielded significant headway over the last several days but the biggest challenge facing officials in what happens to Ukrainian territory occupied by Russian forces remains unresolved with no clear route to solving.
Progress in the effort to end the long and grueling war comes after several days of meetings that have been the most extensive discussions yet to find a diplomatic end to the war as it nears its fourth anniversary.
“In recent days, we have seen significant diplomatic momentum, perhaps the most since the war began on Feb. 24, 2022,” German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said after Monday meetings. “We now have the opportunity for a genuine peace process for Ukraine.”
The U.S. has reportedly promised to protect Ukraine from any future attacks from Russia in a breakthrough for a key request for Kyiv as it tries to find a path out of the war. America would not send troops to the ground but would supply other types of support like monitoring and air patrolling.
NATO allies in Europe have backed security guarantees for Ukraine for months and voiced willingness to send troops but have pushed for some form of U.S. involvement. Altogether, the guarantees are similar to NATO’s Article 5 backing. Trump is reportedly also willing to submit a final agreement to the Senate for approval, which would signal commitment to Ukraine’s defense beyond his administration.
President Donald Trump was optimistic about new progress, telling reporters, “I think we’re closer now than we have been, ever.”
“At this moment, Russia wants to get in and the problem is they’ll want to get it ended, and then all of a sudden they won’t, and Ukraine will want to get it ended, and all of a sudden they won’t,” Trump said. “So we have to get them on the same page.”
Getting the U.S. to sign onto security guarantees is a major boost for Ukraine and Europe but is likely to be met with fierce resistance from the Kremlin, which has also rejected NATO countries’ involvement in any post-war security forces. Any movement on a peace proposal that soothes Ukrainian and European issues are likely to feed into Russian resistance to them.
“Ukraine needs the security guarantee, and they won’t see one as valid unless there’s actual Western boots on the ground. There are countries that are willing to do that but that’s a nonstarter with (Russia) too. People say it’s inching towards the resolution, but I don’t see the Russians giving up,” said Ian Kelly, a former State Department diplomat and ambassador in residence at Northwestern.
Russia has not publicly commented on much related to the new rounds of discussions other than Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov saying Russia wants a comprehensive deal and said Russia would not participate if Ukraine sought “momentary, unsustainable solutions.”
“We want peace — we don’t want a truce that would give Ukraine a respite and prepare for the continuation of the war,” he told reporters. “We want to stop this war, achieve our goals, secure our interests, and guarantee peace in Europe for the future.”
Once talks with Ukraine and Europe to finalize the remaining outstanding issues, the proposal will be taken to Russia by U.S. officials. Zelenskyy warned that he expected increased pressure on Moscow from the West in the form of tighter sanctions and more military support for Kyiv if the Kremlin rejects the latest offer.
Finding a solution on ceding territory is the biggest hurdle left for negotiators. Zelenskyy has been adamant Ukraine will not allow Moscow to take control of any of the territory it has taken over the course of the war and said allowing Russia to take the Donbas, an economically important area of the country Russia doesn’t fully control, is a nonstarter. Europe has also been opposed to allowing Ukraine to give up territory in fear of incentivizing Putin to continue military campaigns to take lands by force.
Trump officials have pushed Ukraine to accept it will have to give up territory in a final settlement and Putin has insisted on Russia taking all the regions it has seized and Crimea, which was illegally annexed in 2014.
Russia has also shown few signs of being interested in giving up its onslaught of Ukraine as it continues to strike its electrical grid and heating infrastructure despite claiming interest in the Trump-led peace talks.
“(Putin’s) just gonna laugh at it, because he has his own way forward. His own way forward is to rely on his military momentum, which is pretty pathetic, but I think he’s counting on the will of the Ukrainians to keep fighting to just collapse,” Kelly said.