The Athletic has live coverage of Alabama vs. Oklahoma in the College Football Playoff first round.
Most fan bases are optimistic in August, and that was the case for all 12 of the teams that reached the 2025 College Football Playoff.
So, where does confidence stand now with a national championship in the balance? In the latest installment of our Hope-O-Meter survey, all but three fan bases are confident that their team can raise the trophy.
It’s understandable why fans of James Madison and Tulane, a pair of Group of 5 programs, aren’t expecting to pull off the impossible. But why are fans from Alabama, a program that has won six national championships since 2009, saying they’ll be content with winning only one Playoff game this time around? Was the loss to Georgia in the SEC Championship Game so ugly that most Crimson Tide fans are expecting the team to roll over if it faces Indiana in the Rose Bowl?
“They shouldn’t have made it after laying that egg against Georgia,” said Bama fan Jared P. “I have no doubt that they will beat Oklahoma. But Indiana is going to cave them in.”
“As a Bama fan, usually I expect nothing less than a natty but currently half of our key players are injured,” added Nolan W. “I don’t trust this head case version of Ty Simpson, and our offensive line thinks they’re at a turnstile cosplay convention.”
What does a successful Playoff run look like for fans of the top four seeds?
The majority of Indiana and Georgia fans believe making the national championship game would suffice. Texas Tech fans would be happy simply getting to the semifinal round. But for fans of the defending national champion Buckeyes, a repeat is all that will make the majority content.
“Indiana was just a hard fight where some bad play calling on third and fourth down led to a field goal choke,” said Buckeyes fan Adam. “I still believe Ohio State is the best team in the nation.”
Here’s a closer look at what fans would consider a successful Playoff and how they feel about their chances, along with a look back at what some pessimists were saying about their team in the preseason.
1. Indiana Hoosiers
Win it all: 23.6% | Make the title game: 39% | Win at least one game: 30.8% | Just happy to be here: 6.7%
It’s been a dream season in Bloomington, and the reality is that few in the fan base are going to view this as a bad year even if the Hoosiers somehow get bounced in the Rose Bowl. That’s why fewer than one-in-four of the Indiana faithful said winning a national title is the only thing that would make the Playoff run a success.
“I have been a season ticket holder for Indiana Football since 2018 (and a fan before that),” said Alex K. “Outside of a brief stretch during the Tom Allen years, it could be pretty much assumed we were going to lose every conference game we played in. I attended the games more so because I love college football and Indiana is my alma mater. Fast forward to Curt Cignetti’s hiring. I was in Lucas Oil Stadium last Saturday night and when the confetti fell, I started crying. I never thought Indiana would be in this position. I honestly think they can win it all. Even if they don’t, I’ll always have the memories of this season!”
Said Kookie, who classified himself as just being happy to make it back to the Playoff: “Dude. We sucked. My whole life. Now we are expected to win. We are just enjoying the ride while we wholeheartedly believe IU can win the damn thing!”
Do fans think they can win it all? 99 percent say yes
BetMGM championship odds: +275
Season-opening odds: +10,000
Preseason Hope-O-Meter: 98 percent optimistic
Preseason pessimism: “I mean, it probably won’t be as good as last year. But it won’t be a train wreck like the rest of my life. So that’s good!” — Andre K.
2. Ohio State Buckeyes
Win it all: 53.8% | Make the title game: 37.1% | Win at least one game: 8.8% | Just happy to be here: 0.4%
The tune for Buckeyes fans definitely changed since the preseason. While some hoped they could go back-to-back, the general sentiment in Columbus was that Ryan Day had too much talent to replace and a young quarterback who was bound to trip up at one point or another. Now, though, anything short of winning the Cotton Bowl and reaching the title game will be seen as a failure by most Ohio State fans.
“Only worried about UGA and Indiana,” Jim said.
“I think they should win the natty,” Randy said. “I don’t think Indiana can beat them twice in one year.”
Do fans think they can win it all? 98.8 percent say yes
BetMGM championship odds: +225
Season-opening odds: +450
Preseason Hope-O-Meter: 97 percent optimistic
Preseason pessimism: “Other than Jeremiah Smith — the rare player not only worth all the hype he may actually deserve, but probably deserves even more — this offense is young. Too young to make much of a run. I see four losses with two of them being the opener with Texas and the inevitable Ryan Day meltdown with Michigan that ultimately costs them a playoff spot.” — Eric Furniss
3. Georgia Bulldogs
Win it all: 37.1% | Make the title game: 46.8% | Win at least one game: 14.9% | Just happy to be here: 1.2%
This is the fan base with the second-highest “we need to win the national title to make this a successful Playoff run” vibes. Georgia fans were definitely disappointed with losing to Notre Dame in the Sugar Bowl last year, but they are much more confident that Kirby Smart can make a run to a third championship based on how the defense has played of late.
“UGA seems to be one of the three best teams in the Playoff,” Allen said. “In a late-game fistfight with the other two best teams (Indiana and Ohio State), I like our chances since the Dawgs have had to win late repeatedly. But Ohio State and IU are legit, so I’m taking nothing for granted. Plus, balls bounce, etc.”
Paul S. is a little more confident: “This team got better as the year went on and at times looks like the two championship teams we had in 2021 and 2022.”
Do fans think they can win it all? 99.4 percent say yes
BetMGM championship odds: +500
Season-opening odds: +600
Preseason Hope-O-Meter: 91 percent optimistic
Preseason pessimism: “Gunner Stockton is unproven beyond a few games last year. The whole team vibe is ‘rebuild’ followed by ‘Why is Mike Bobo still OC?’ 9-4 or 8-5. Yeesh!” — John
4. Texas Tech Red Raiders
Win it all: 0.0% | Make the title game: 16.2% | Win at least one game: 75.7% | Just happy to be here: 8.1%
The biggest question for Red Raiders fans heading into the season wasn’t if the team GM James Blanchard put together was talented — it was more about if it would all come together fast enough to win the program’s first Big 12 championship. It happened, and now the Red Raiders are three wins away from a national championship. Less than 10 percent of Raiders fans responded to our survey saying they don’t think Texas Tech can win it all. Most, however, would be satisfied with simply winning the Orange Bowl and beating the Oregon-James Madison first-round winner.
“The goal was always to win the Big 12, anything after is icing on the cake,” Alex said. “This team can do more than that, though, and I think they will.”
Added Cody Empkey: “I believe this defense is truly the best unit of any team in the Playoff. We will go as far as they take us.”
Do fans think they can win it all? 91.9 percent say yes
BetMGM championship odds: +900
Season-opening odds: +15,000
Preseason Hope-O-Meter: 98 percent optimistic
Preseason pessimism: “Too much money spent on players who haven’t proven they can be part of a cohesive team. Too much pressure on a coach to produce immediately.” — Kevin
5. Oregon Ducks
Win it all: 23.6% | Make the title game: 58.4% | Win at least one game: 18% | Just happy to be here: 0%
After watching their team go undefeated but get knocked as the top seed in last year’s tournament, Oregon fans began the season hopeful that quarterback Dante Moore and a cast of unproven receivers would end up being good enough to lead them back to the postseason. Now, the overwhelming sense from Ducks fans is they have to at least make it to the national championship game to call this a successful Playoff run. Still, a percentage of fans believe the Ducks won’t win the title.
“Feel like it’s been almost 20 years of having a legit title shot only for one unfortunate set of circumstances after another that eventually bite them at their peak,” Brent B. said. “If Indiana can do it in two years, while Oregon has been building for decades, it would kill me a bit inside. Time for this team to finally catch fire and catch a break. The bracket is set up perfectly.”
Added Keith Dobkow: “It’s just time. Time to be an official blue blood.”
Do fans think they can win it all? 93.8 percent say yes
BetMGM championship odds: +800
Season-opening odds: +700
Preseason Hope-O-Meter: 97 percent optimistic
Preseason pessimism: “If we couldn’t win it all with Bo Nix playing out of his mind, I’m skeptical that it’s going to get better than that. Plus, that Ohio State loss was just too brutal to forget.” — Aarron
6. Ole Miss Rebels
Win it all: 2.2% | Make the title game: 21.7% | Win at least one game: 76.1% | Just happy to be here: 0%
Even though the Rebels felt as though they missed an opportunity last year, fans believed Lane Kiffin’s coaching and work in the transfer portal would have the team right back in contention to make the Playoff in 2025. He exceeded expectations and went 11-1 before breaking Rebels fans’ hearts and leaving for LSU. Now, most Ole Miss fans are not optimistic that their team can win a championship.
“It’s a little bit of a miracle season given all the hurdles the team has to overcome,” Austin said. “There seems to be something magical about this team. Let’s see how long it can last!”
Lofton thinks one Playoff win with Pete Golding as head coach would make it a successful postseason. But getting two would make the faithful feel a lot better. “To beat Georgia in the Sugar Bowl would be huge for a program that now needs to show more than anything that it can win without you know who,” he said. “Anything less is sort of an underwhelming end for one of the greatest teams in school history.”
Do fans think they can win it all? 65.2 percent say yes
BetMGM championship odds: +2500
Season-opening odds: +2500
Preseason Hope-O-Meter: 99 percent optimistic
Preseason pessimism: “Feels like last year was the year and we blew it.” — Dylan
7. Texas A&M Aggies
Win it all: 3.2% | Make the title game: 14.7% | Win at least one game: 77.9% | Just happy to be here: 4.2%
Mike Elko isn’t winning at Curt Cignetti levels, but he’s not far off in Year 2 with the Aggies. The truth is, Texas A&M fans weren’t expecting a lot from quarterback Marcel Reed, and many thought they were likely headed for another 8-4 season. The preseason Hope-O-Meter survey results for the Aggies included more pessimists than the other teams that eventually made the Playoff. But times are changing in College Station. Only a quarter of Texas A&M fans who responded to our survey believe the Aggies aren’t capable of winning it all. But most say they’ll call it a successful Playoff run simply by beating Miami at Kyle Field on Saturday.
“At least they gave us a gimme first game against Miami. Then it gets tricky,” Garrett said. “But I think we have the talent to make a run.”
Said Sam: “It will be tough to get past Ohio State, but if we do upset them, then the sky is the limit!”
Do fans think they can win it all? 75.8 percent say yes
BetMGM championship odds: +1700
Season-opening odds: +3000
Preseason Hope-O-Meter: 73 percent optimistic
Preseason pessimism: “No matter who we hire, no matter how well we recruit, no matter how much money is poured into the program we seem destined to finish 8-4. Forever.” — Blair
8. Oklahoma Sooners
Win it all: 4.3% | Make the title game: 6.1% | Win at least one game: 80.9% | Just happy to be here: 8.7%
Oklahoma fans were basically on the verge of jumping off the Brent Venables bandwagon at the start of the season — if they weren’t already there. But here the Sooners are hosting a first-round game and looking for their third win in the last 13 months against Alabama. Yes, John Mateer and the offense remain a concern. But nobody is talking about dumping Venables anymore.
“This season is already a win. Way better than preseason expectations. I think we have a chance to win a game or two but happy just to be in the Playoff,” said Albert Pender, who is among the strong majority of OU fans who would be pleased simply to win a first-round game.
That doesn’t mean there aren’t those who believe the Sooners can make a run to their first championship since 2000.
“Boomer Sooner, baby!” Boomer Bobb said. “Got the D! Gonna get that O rolling! Ice that thumb, Mateer, and play like a Heisman hopeful (for next year). All the way, Oklahoma! We got this. Worst case, Longhorns will be watching us from their couches.”
Do fans think they can win it all? 56.5 percent say yes
BetMGM championship odds: +5000
Season-opening odds: +7000
Preseason Hope-O-Meter: 85 percent optimistic
Preseason pessimism: “It feels more likely our coach gets fired than we make the Playoff.” — Jeremy
9. Alabama Crimson Tide
Win it all: 9.5% | Make the title game: 19% | Win at least one game: 66.7% | Just happy to be here: 4.8%
As mentioned above, Alabama fans aren’t feeling good heading into the Playoff after getting spanked by Georgia in the league championship game.
“We shouldn’t be in the Playoff,” Sean said. “We’re not as good as Notre Dame or even Texas. I can’t stand watching this offense. The running game is anemic. Luckily we drew Oklahoma, whose offense is somehow worse. Just hoping Indiana doesn’t beat us by 30.”
That doesn’t mean there still aren’t some diehard Crimson Tide fans who believe Kalen DeBoer’s team can get back to looking like the team that won four consecutive games against ranked opponents in October.
“Bama has been up and down this year,” Stephie concedes. “The SEC Championship Game was bad. But they bounced back from losses all season. When they need to, they can show up. So I’m still optimistic.”
Do fans think they can win it all? 47.6 percent say yes
BetMGM championship odds: +2500
Season-opening odds: +1200
Preseason Hope-O-Meter: 95 percent optimistic
Preseason pessimism: “Concerned about our QB and the loss of culture.” — Stan
10. Miami Hurricanes
Win it all: 9.6% | Make the title game: 13% | Win at least one game: 66.1% | Just happy to be here: 11.3%
The Hurricanes, who snuck into the Playoff as the last at-large team, haven’t played on this big a stage in more than two decades. The reality is the Hurricanes still have not won an ACC championship since joining the league in 2004, and Miami fans are truly just happy to be a part of the Playoff in Mario Cristobal’s fourth season. Does that mean they don’t believe the Canes can get hot and win it all? No. Most do. But winning at Texas A&M on Saturday and advancing to the Cotton Bowl would satisfy most of the fans and make them feel as though the Cristobal hire is finally paying off.
“The talent level of the roster is Mario Cristobal’s No. 1 achievement at Miami,” John said. “Leveraging it is the key to success. Either way, hard not to be pleased with the progress made and the hope for future success.”
Added Rob J.: “Sleep on them all you want, talent-wise as good as anyone.”
Do fans think they can win it all? 90.4 percent say yes
BetMGM championship odds: +2200
Season-opening odds: +3500
Preseason Hope-O-Meter: 93 percent optimistic
Preseason pessimism: “Feels like a typical Miami season where there is a lot of hype and hope but ultimately they fall on their face en route to an eight-ish-win season, largely due to poor QB play. Carson Beck is definitely not the guy.” — Greg B
11. Tulane Green Wave
Win it all: 0% | Make the title game: 2% | Win at least one game: 54.9% | Just happy to be here: 43.1%
Tulane fans are growing accustomed to having good seasons and then losing their head coach and best players to Power 4 programs. That doesn’t mean they don’t want to enjoy a postseason run with Jon Sumrall before he heads off for Florida.
“I’ve been a fan of this team since childhood, and an alumnus for over almost 20 years,” Shane said. “I never thought we’d be here. And we might not be here again. So we need to maximize it.”
The reality is, fans of Group of 5 teams enjoy the opportunity to compete on the big stage.
“College football is not always about the team that has the best chance to win the championship, it is always about the team that wants to win the most,” added Jeff.
Do fans think they can win it all? 11.8 percent say yes
BetMGM championship odds: +50,000
Season-opening odds: +15,000
Preseason Hope-O-Meter: 92 percent optimistic
Preseason pessimism: “Would have felt much more confident with Darian Mensah under center. Jake Retzlaff recently resurrected hope, but I doubt he spent enough time in the system to be efficient in it.” — Fred MB
12. James Madison Dukes
Win it all: 5.8% | Make the title game: 1.9% | Win at least one game: 26.9% | Just happy to be here: 65.4%
We get it: James Madison would not have made the field if not for the ACC’s tiebreaker fiasco. There’s no doubt Dukes fans are happy about it. It’s been a wild ride, really. Four years ago, James Madison competed at the FCS level. Now, it’s in the College Football Playoff. What the Dukes have to do now, most JMU fans hope, is not embarrass themselves.
“Part of me thinks JMU can beat Oregon,” Justin said. “The other part of me thinks I should see a psychiatrist.”
Said Dawn: “Honestly, I just want JMU to be more competitive than Liberty’s 45-6 loss in the Fiesta Bowl (to Oregon) two years ago. Cautiously optimistic that our defense can keep things interesting.”
At least one JMU fan believes this game is about a lot more than football. “To indict an underdog’s place in these playoffs is to indict the United States of America,” Mark S. said. “You say what you want about James Madison, but we’re not going to sit here and let you badmouth the United States of America! Dukes by 50.”
Do fans think they can win it all? 25 percent say yes
BetMGM championship odds: +50,000
Season-opening odds: +100,000
Preseason Hope-O-Meter: 100 percent optimistic
Preseason semi-pessimism: “While I don’t think we end up competing for the G5 slot in the Playoff, I think this is the year we win the conference championship. Strong returning offensive line with a deep backfield.” — Mark