The Oklahoma City Thunder are soaring above the rest of the NBA this season, but the San Antonio Spurs may just be their kryptonite — and that raises the stakes as the teams square off again on Christmas Day.
San Antonio has handed OKC two of its four losses this season, and my Spurs vs Thunder predictions signal more promising signs from the visitors’ young core as they visit Paycom Center.
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Check out my NBA picks for this December 25 clash, which stands out as the best gift on the five-game slate.
Spurs vs Thunder prediction
Spurs vs Thunder best bet: Stephon Castle Over 16.5 points (-105)
The backcourt battle usually gives the Oklahoma City Thunder the upper hand, but the San Antonio Spurs’ fearless guards have proved they’re up to the challenge.
While De’Aaron Fox brings the veteran savvy, Stephon Castle is taking huge strides alongside him.
Castle has delivered some of his best performances this year against the Thunder. He poured in 24 points on 7-for-12 shooting in Tuesday’s impressive 130-110 victory over OKC — including four triples — and he served up a 22-point effort in the NBA Cup semifinal.
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With Victor Wembanyama still being eased back into the action off the bench, the Spurs need Castle to bring a scoring punch, and his relentless play was a key ingredient in San Antonio’s 56% mark from the field earlier this week against SGA & Co.
For all the defensive intensity of Alex Caruso and Lu Dort, the Thunder haven’t found a way to slow down Castle, and the second-year phenom has gone past this O/U number in four straight outings while averaging 20.9 PPG in December.
With double-digit field goal attempts in every game this month, Castle’s role in a humming Spurs offense puts him in great shape to nail this Over.
Spurs vs Thunder same-game parlay
Even with Wemby playing 25 minutes or fewer in all six games since returning, the Spurs are racking up victories. They’ve won four in a row and eight of their last 10 outings.
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San Antonio is 17-12-1 ATS this season — plus, by taking the points, the visitors don’t necessarily have to end the Thunder’s 14-0 start at home.
Give me the Over on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s assists tally, too. He was terrific against the Spurs earlier this week, and he’s dished at least eight dimes in three straight contests.
Spurs vs Thunder SGP
Stephon Castle Over 16.5 points
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 6.5 assists
Our “from downtown” SGP: Spur of the moment
Devin Vassell is quietly shooting 43% from beyond the arc in December, and he’ll have a big role to play here on both ends of the floor. He’s drilled at least three 3-pointers in four of his last six games.
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Spurs vs Thunder SGP
Stephon Castle Over 16.5 points
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 6.5 assists
Devin Vassell Over 2.5 threes
Spurs vs Thunder odds
Spread: Spurs +9 | Thunder -9
Moneyline: Spurs +280 | Thunder -360
Over/Under: Over 235.5 | Under 235.5
Spurs vs Thunder betting trend to know
The Spurs are 10-5 SU on the road this season. Find more NBA betting trends for Spurs vs. Thunder.
How to watch Spurs vs Thunder
Location
Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK
Date
Thursday, December 25, 2025
Tip-off
2:30 p.m. ET
TV
Disney+/ESPN2
Spurs vs Thunder latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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