The Red Sox have established their price on a return in a potential Jarren Duran trade, and it’s a steep one, according to the latest intel from ESPN’s Jeff Passan.
“The Red Sox believe Duran is worth a front-of-the-rotation starter,” Passan shared on Threads. “At this point, no one has been willing to pay that.”
It’s also in line with reporting from last summer, too, which linked Duran to San Diego and then-Padres pitcher Dylan Cease as a potential pitcher of interest to the Red Sox in a hypothetical Duran-to-San-Diego trade. That trade obviously never came to be, and Cease has since signed a $210 million contract with Toronto.
The bad news for Craig Breslow & Co., though, is that their desired return on Duran may no longer be in line with the going rate, according to Passan.
“Considering the return the Rays got on Shane Baz, teams are going to be that much more emboldened to price starting pitchers very aggressively, even with the paucity of good bats left beyond the very top of the free agent market,” Passan wrote.
Moved from Tampa to Baltimore earlier this month, the Orioles parted with three of their top 11 prospects, along with a 2026 Competitive Balance Round A Draft pick, to pry Baz out of Tampa Bay. That’s a haul and then some, and is certainly a stronger package than Duran. Even if you (rightfully) view prospects as lottery tickets that might never match what Duran has been for Boston.
If Duran is netting the Sox a top-tier arm, it’s going to be in a trade that’s more like “Duran, plus, plus, AND maybe even another plus.” Given the prices they’ve paid to make their trades to this point this offseason (as well as some of their other targets that could cost the club something similar via trade), it’s a legitimate question as to whether or not the club could afford to do that while staying true to their obvious vision for sustainability above all else.
Photo by Greg Fiume/Getty Images
WASHINGTON, DC – JULY 04: Jarren Duran #16 of the Boston Red Sox drives in a run with a single in the second inning against the Washington Nationals at Nationals Park on July 04, 2025 in Washington, DC.
But even if Boston’s desired asking price on Duran might not be in line with the current market, it does make sense for the club.
In addition to being an All-Star and finishing eighth in American League MVP voting in 2024, Duran is under contract at an affordable $7.7 million contract for the 2026 season. And factoring in his upcoming arbitration years, the 29-year-old Duran is under a team’s control through the 2028 season. In other words, they’re not totally at a point where they have to make a call on Duran.
But they could be getting close.
Reports ahead of the Winter Meetings basically indicated that the Red Sox would have to make a move with their outfielder logjam, with Duran and Wilyer Abreu the most frequently mentioned names. The Red Sox were able to alleviate that logjam a year ago by moving Ceddanne Rafaela to second base at times a year ago, but he’s at his best in the outfield, and the Red Sox still have hopes of bolstering their infield with a signing or trade addition, so that’s unlikely to be a go-to option for the club as much as it was a season ago. Duran, often considered the weakest defensive option of their current outfield group, could be the odd man out there.
The Red Sox also feel saddled with Masataka Yoshida and his contract until proven otherwise (and they clearly view him as a designated hitter only), while the addition of Willson Contreras will only further eat into at-bats at the ‘DH’ position in 2026. The Red Sox have already said that Contreras will spend the majority of his season at first base, but that they will also put him at DH to keep his bat in the lineup whenever possible. So, moving Duran to designated hitter is not going to be the go-to move because it’s essentially already been filled two times over.
While the Red Sox remain an obviously unfinished product this offseason, it’s simply getting harder and harder to see where Duran fits into this picture for Boston moving forward. But it’s also getting harder to see a trade that truly satisfies Boston’s appetite to indeed pull the trigger on that trade.