Miami overcomes long odds to reach CFP final four

David PurdumJan 2, 2026, 09:19 AM ET

Close Joined ESPN in 2014
Journalist covering gambling industry since 2008

Miami had an odds-defying December, going from a long shot to even make the College Football Playoff to one of the favorites in the final four.

Miami opened as a 2.5-point favorite over Ole Miss in next week’s semifinal. Indiana was installed as a 4-point favorite over Oregon in the other semifinal.

A week before the final CFP rankings were released Dec. 7, the two-loss Hurricanes were 10-1 to make the playoff and around 150-1 to win the national championship. They inched past Notre Dame and into the playoff and now have posted consecutive upsets, including Wednesday’s wire-to-wire win over defending champion Ohio State.

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The Buckeyes’ loss was costly for the betting public. More bets had been placed — and more money wagered — on Ohio State to win the national championship than on any other team at multiple sportsbooks this season.

Outside of Florida, Miami didn’t garner much betting interest from the public, especially after losing twice in three weeks entering November. However, in the Sunshine State, the Hurricanes still had believers.

On Nov. 30, when Miami was 150-1 to win the national championship, a bettor with Hard Rock Bet placed a $2,500 bet on the Hurricanes for a chance at a $375,000 net win.

Hard Rock, the only licensed sportsbook in Florida, has been inundated with action on the Hurricanes all season. Miami’s upset of Ohio State attracted more money from bettors than any other game this season at the sportsbook, with the opener between Miami and Notre Dame second. More money has been bet on the Hurricanes to win the national championship than any other team at Hard Rock Bet.

“When it comes to national title liability, it’s all about the U,” Neil Walsh, senior vice president of Hard Rock Bet sportsbook, told ESPN. “Miami has been our most popular team all year, and because futures were written at much longer prices than past Florida title runs, the liability is on another level.”