In a perfect world, I think the top five should have one team from each division. That’s not about spreading the hype or artificial parity. It’s just the reality of the current playoff format, where each division is virtually assured of sending one team to the final four. (The exception would be a crossover wild-card “winning” a division it wasn’t even in, which would be very funny but has sadly never happened. Yet.)
If our top five is about the long-term view, projecting ahead to an eventual Stanley Cup winner, that final four feels like it should be our starting point. And that means every division would ideally be represented. Remember, we’re not trying to figure out if a team is better than, say, the Minnesota Wild. It’s about whether their Cup chances are higher, and not having to go through the Dallas Stars and Colorado Avalanche to get to the conference final should count for something. Maybe even a lot.
All that said … I’m officially giving the Pacific Division a top-five timeout.
I tried. I’ve spent the majority of the season with a Pacific rep in the top five somewhere — first with the Edmonton Oilers way back in week one, and then with the Vegas Golden Knights showing up eight times in the next 11 weeks. The division never went back-to-back without a top-five team. Until now, because man, this division is a mess.
Bonus five: Bad signs for the Pacific Division
5. This stat from Jesse – A couple of caveats: It’s from Friday, and it’s using the NHL’s version of goals differential which counts shootouts. But still … yikes.
Every single team in the Pacific Division has a negative goal differential. pic.twitter.com/Tf0qK4mtKL
— Jesse Granger (@JesseGranger_) January 3, 2026
And here’s a bonus stat of my own: Of the eight teams in the division, only the Knights don’t rank in the bottom five league-wide in either goals for or against heading into yesterday’s action. The Seattle Kraken (32nd), Los Angeles Kings (31st) and Calgary Flames (29th) are all bottom-five in goals for, while the Anaheim Ducks (32nd), Oilers (28th), Vancouver Canucks (29th) and San Jose Sharks (31st) are all bottom-five in goals allowed.
4. The Kings are fading – Aside from the Oilers and Golden Knights, they were the one team in the division with a playoff track record. That track record was very bad, mind you, but at least they were invited to the dance. Even after a rocky offseason, they looked like they were headed there again as late as mid-November, when a four-game win streak boosted their record up to 10-5-4. But they’re just 7-9-5 since, including losses in eight of their last 11. And while they say they’re not sellers, the Phillip Danault deal looked a lot like the sort of move a seller would make.
3. The Ducks are flatlining – They were one of the best stories of the season’s first few months, the young squad that was using talent and speed to score its way to contention. But they lost five in a row, and nine of 12, and the offense has dropped while the defensive side is getting worse. In short, they look like a young team again. That’s not disaster, because they are a young team, and there are supposed to be bumps in the road. But they’ve spent the last month bumping themselves right out of the postseason picture.
2. The other teams have had their moments, but… – The Kraken have won six of seven. The Flames had won three in a row before losing to Nashville. The Canucks showed some fight in the aftermath of the Quinn Hughes deal before the holiday break. And the Sharks have been churning along about .500, which has to count as a success story given where they were starting from. All fun stories. But are you even thinking about any of these teams being in your top ten, let alone top five? Of course not.
1. The Oilers and Golden Knights just don’t look elite – The Knights have been a weird team all year, relying on loser points to boost a losing record. And while the Oilers started slow, again, we all knew they’d find their level eventually. The good news is they largely have; the bad news is their level seems closer to “pretty good” than truly great. Would either of these teams be favored against any of the three Central teams in a playoff series that started today, even with home ice? No way. There’s still time for one or both to find another gear, but it’s January. It’s not too early to start drawing conclusions based on 40-plus games of evidence.
All that being said, the super top-heavy nature of the Central means the Pacific could account for five playoff spots. Wait, we’re getting the crossover scenario in the Central and two Pacific teams playing in the conference final, aren’t we? Oh no, what have I done…
OK, on to the Pacific-free rankings. Let’s see who the other three divisions sent to this week’s dance.
Road to the Cup
The five teams with the best chances of winning the Stanley Cup.
We had some history over the weekend, as Auston Matthews became the all-time goals leader for a franchise that’s over a century old.
The Islanders went on to win in overtime on a goal by Matthew Schaefer, in a nice bit of first-overall-pick symmetry.
5. Carolina Hurricanes (25-14-3, +11 true goals differential*) – Look, I get why some fans might not love it, but I just thought Saturday night’s Adams Division showdown was a cool look:
Yes, I’m old, thanks for asking.
4. Minnesota Wild (25-10-8, +23) – The schedule’s a bit weird, serving up back-to-back games in Los Angeles. The Wild needed multiple comebacks to get a point on Saturday, and get another shot at the Kings tonight. A win would move them ahead of Dallas in points.
3. Tampa Bay Lightning (25-13-3, +32) – So apparently, the Panthers are mad about Sam Bennett being left off of Team Canada, while Jon Cooper found space for (checks note) the entire Lightning roster. Cool, it’s about time those two teams had some bad blood.
2. Dallas Stars (25-9-8, +29) – The Jason Robertson revenge tour should be something to see.
Just gonna go ahead and leave this here. pic.twitter.com/CahQfXtVw2
— Dallas Stars (@DallasStars) December 29, 2025
1. Colorado Avalanche (31-3-7, +75) – They took just their third regulation loss of the year against the Panthers. Worse, the Gabriel Landeskog injury looked like an ugly one. At this point, we’re not sure exactly how much time he could miss, but he will miss some.
*Goals differential without counting shootout decisions like the NHL does for some reason.
Not ranked: Detroit Red Wings – I have to admit that this Saturday post caught me a little off-guard:
The No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference will host the first ABC Hockey Saturday of the season.
Catch the @DetroitRedWings taking on the Penguins at noon ET. #NHLStats pic.twitter.com/1Cur7YYN7S
— NHL Public Relations (@NHLPR) January 3, 2026
I mean, I follow the NHL pretty closely, but — what? The Red Wings are having a solid season and are on track to comfortably make the playoffs, but first place in the Eastern Conference? That can’t be right … can it?
Well … sort of. As of that Saturday post, the Wings were indeed sitting in top spot in the East, with 52 points. That put them one up on the Hurricanes and Lightning, and two up on the Habs. But they’d also played two more games than any of those teams, meaning they trailed all three in points percentage. In fact, purely based on points percentage, they were closer to the Philadelphia Flyers than to Tampa or Carolina. And then they lost to the Penguins in regulation.
So OK, the Red Wings aren’t the best team in the conference, even if we just focus on wins and losses. And of course, we all know there’s that pesky other column on the standings page, the one for goals differential, which is screaming at us that this team may not even be better than the Leafs, Penguins or Senators.
So is that nugget about them leading the East a fake stat? Not at all. Points are points, and any team’s job is to bank as many as they can in the games the schedule-maker gives them. The Wings have been doing that. And whether they’re first or fourth or somewhere else, the reality is they’re almost certainly having a better season than you’re inclined to give them credit for.
How are they doing it? Max had some good thoughts a few days ago, which are well worth a read. He starts with the top pair of Moritz Seider, who’s getting some legitimate Norris buzz, and Simon Edvinsson, the kid who sure seems to be making the leap. Dylan Larkin and Alex DeBrincat are both on pace for 40-goal seasons, although there are some warning signs flashing about their five-on-five play. And Todd McLellan is a big piece of the story in his first full season behind the bench, and might even be working his way into the Jack Adams conversation.
Somewhat surprisingly, goaltending isn’t really a big piece of the story here, unlike most teams that are exceeding expectations. John Gibson has been fine, as has Cam Talbot, and the two veterans are basically splitting time. The position hasn’t been a weakness, and that’s part of the story, but it’s not like you can just hand-wave about goalies getting hot and call it a day. If anything, some above-average goaltending might push this team to the next level.
All that said, they’re not in my top five and haven’t been all year, and I can’t say I’m all that tempted to find a spot for them. Our projections only have them as a coin flip to even make the playoffs, and under one percent to win it all; that feels low given how they’ve played over the first half, but it’s fair to say that an awful lot of things would have to go right for the Wings to head into the postseason as Atlantic favorites. (Like maybe a big deadline move?)
We’ll get to all that. For now, the reality is that the first half has gone just about as well as you could hope if you’re a Wings fan, and the first playoff action in a decade is there for the taking. If they get home ice, winning a round for the first time since 2013 is absolutely in play. They may not be the best team in the conference, or top-five worthy, but they’re pretty good.
The bottom five
The five teams headed towards dead last and the best lottery odds for the top pick in this year’s draft.
We had two suspensions yesterday, doubling the Department of Player Safety’s total for the year. Calgary’s John Beecher and Winnipeg’s Logan Stanley each got one game for roughing. Meanwhile, this pro wrestling finisher got nothing, possibly because the DoPS is taking degree of difficulty into account.
5. Winnipeg Jets (15-21-4, -11) – I still can’t quite get my head around it, but here we are. If anything, this ranking is generous, since the Jets are actually dead last in the league in terms of points percentage. I held them out as long as I could, because I had a hard time believing they were this bad. But with nine straight losses, including a brutal collapse in Toronto, there’s really no way sugar-coat this debacle any further. This is shaping up to be the single worst season in Jets history (which should include the original version, by the way, despite what Gary Bettman says).
The Jets become the 13th different team to crack our bottom five this year, and the first to do it after previously appearing in the top five — they actually ranked in top spot at the end of October, after a 9-3-0 start. I can’t imagine how Jets fans feel about all that’s happened since. The whole thing has to feel like a sucker punch to the jaw.
4. Calgary Flames (18-19-4, -10) – Saturday’s loss to the Predators was disappointing, given how hot reasonably lukewarm the Flames had been leading up to it. Still, they’re a respectable 9-5-0 since the start of December, and host Seattle tonight before heading out on a five-game road trip.
3. St. Louis Blues (17-18-8, -37) – Jordan Binnington made Team Canada, then immediately pitched his first shutout of the season on Saturday night against Montreal. Hey, just wondering, has this franchise ever had a really remarkable season turnaround that involved Binnington and started on Jan. 3?
2. Chicago Blackhawks (17-18-7, -15) – Connor Bedard and Frank Nazar are almost back, and the Hawks are warming up just in time to take one last swing at getting back into the race. Meanwhile, Mark wonders how high Bedard would rank on a list of the league’s most valuable players to their team.
1. Vancouver Canucks (16-20-5, -29) – Drance nails it.
Not ranked: New York Rangers – Let’s start with the Winter Classic. It mostly went off without a hitch, with no major problems in the warmer temperatures. They did get the roof open, as promised. The ice didn’t seem great, but nobody was splashing though puddles. And the visuals were good – the novelty of seeing hockey in a baseball park has long since worn off, but they put enough local twists on the presentation that it didn’t feel like a total rehash. At the very least, the Panthers hosting meant it wasn’t a combination of the same half-dozen teams the NHL loves so much.
The game itself wasn’t much to see, but that’s probably fine for Rangers fans who just wanted to see a win. And hey, Mika Zibanjed even made a little history.
Now it’s back to business, starting tonight. The Rangers host the Mammoth in the first game at MSG since before the holiday break. They’ll go into the game sitting seventh in the Metro in total points and dead last in points percentage. They’re only three points out of a playoff spot, mind you, although that’s with seven teams to pass, and they’ve also played more games than all of them.
So is the season already lost? Not quite, although we’re closer to that territory than Rangers fans would probably like to think. Peter and Vincent dug into the first half and handed out some awards, and it’s largely a bleak read. The goaltending has been the strength, which you’d expect when you’re paying more for the position than anyone else. The defense has been solid, led by free agent prize Vladislav Gavrikov. But the offense has been weak, with only Artemi Panarin on pace for even 80 points, while J.T. Miller has been disappointing in his first full year and Alexis Lafrenière is back to looking like a bust (by No. 1 pick standards). And Mike Sullivan hasn’t had any magic answers.
It’s not hopeless, and we can give them a few more weeks to put together the kind of stretch that would make them feel like playoff contenders. If that doesn’t happen, it will be time to look ahead to the deadline, and that could get very interesting in a market that figures to be short on sellers. Panarin is a pending UFA, and while he has a no-movement clause, you’d have to figure he wouldn’t mind a playoff run to boost his asking price.
One last piece of Big Apple drama worth noting: Adam Fox, left off of the Olympic roster in a controversial call. You wonder what kind of conversations that might lead to with Sullivan, who doubles as Team USA head coach.