Charlie Cummings breaks down his prediction and pick for Friday’s Unrivaled matchup between the Vinyl and the Rose
We’ve got an Unrivaled finals rematch to take in on Friday night. The Vinyl are taking on the Rose, looking for some revenge after losing in the championship game last year. It’s a star-studded contest that should be a bundle of fun.
The Rose are 2.5-point favorites at home against the Vinyl on the DraftKings Sportsbook. A Vinyl upset is priced at +114, with the total set at 135.5 points. Let’s get into my prediction and pick for this game.
Vinyl vs. Rose prediction
The Vinyl are back in force behind head coach Teresa Weatherspoon, who is once again looking to prove she belongs at the head of a WNBA bench. She’s got Atlanta Dream All-Star Rhyne Howard returning, who brought along teammate Brittney Griner. Sparks teammates Rae Burrell and Dearica Hamby will hold it down on the wings, while Courtney Williams and Erica Wheeler take up the backcourt minutes. It’s a team loaded with serious bucket-getters, and Rhyne is the ringleader.
Their first game, a 58-42 loss to the Laces, showed off their strengths and weaknesses. This team can really defend when they buckle down, and the ability to scale up and down in size helps them to match up. But they have one of the lowest offensive floors in the league; if Rhyne Howard is having an inefficient night, it can completely sink them. Courtney Williams is prone to those kind of nights as well, and it’s tough to lean on Hamby, Wheeler, Burrell, and Griner for consistent offense if those two don’t have it.
Griner’s status is one to monitor. She played only two minutes in their first game and may still be feeling the effects of the neck injury she dealt with last season. How much she can play will have a huge effect on the Vinyl; without her, they have no choice but to play small ball.
The defending champions, no team has a more fun roster construction than the Rose. They’re led by Chelsea Gray, who was the Finals MVP after an incredible debut Unrivaled season. Her ability to run a high-level offense on the ball simplifies the roles for everybody else, allowing coach Nola Henry to get creative with their lineups.
Kahleah Copper, Lexie Hull, and Azura Stevens return from last year’s title team. Kah’s midrange scoring and size takes pressure off Gray while being a mismatch nightmare. Lexie is a great defender, one who relishes the tough assignments and will have her motor running for the entire game, on and off the court. Azura was the reason why the Rose were the dominant rebounding team last season, and her 19-point/18-rebound double-double in the final was key to a title.
They’ve got a pair of Washington Mystics arriving to fill the gaps on this team. Shakira Austin will attempt to fill Angel Reese’s shoes by doing work on the glass and protecting the paint. Sug Sutton will back up Chelsea Gray in stints, bringing some hard-nosed defense and good playmaking to the guard spot.
Now we know the teams. Who will win the Finals rematch?
Vinyl vs. Rose Pick
Griner’s status is a huge sticking point in this game. If she can’t play real minutes, it gives license to Azura Stevens and Shakira Austin to run rampant on the boards and in the restricted area. They also have functional size on the perimeter that will create a significant size mismatch. This is not a good matchup for the Vinyl, and they’ll have to wait longer for their revenge against the Rose.