Pamela MaldonadoJan 14, 2026, 06:47 AM ET
ClosePamela Maldonado is a sports betting analyst for ESPN.
The Sony Open in Hawai’i kicks off the 2026 PGA season at Waialae Country Club, a course that rewards precision, iron play and patience more than power.
We’re looking for players who gain with approach, avoid mistakes and can stack birdie chances without forcing it. It’s also Week 1, which means that the golf season is long and there’s no need to spray bets everywhere.
Be selective, protect the bankroll and remember — the NFL playoffs and College Football Playoff title game still deserve your attention.
Russell Henley: Top 10 (+115)
Editor’s Picks
2 Related
Full odds:
Top 20: -185
Top 10: +115
Top 5: +230
To win: +1100
1st round leader: +2800
I normally don’t touch top-10 markets unless your name is Rory McIlroy, but in this field with his experience, Henley is worth the risk. He’s the rightful favorite because he leads the field in strokes gained approach and tee-to-green over the last 32 rounds — core skills this course rewards.
At Waialae, his results are almost perfectly tied to his irons. When he gains with approach here, he contends, and he has plenty of course history to show for it. He has posted a win, a runner-up, a T4 and multiple top-10s because he consistently gains four to six strokes with his irons on this course. That repeatability tends to land near the top of the leaderboard.
Ben Griffin: Top 20 (-130)
Full odds:
Top 20: -130
Top 10: +165
Top 5: +330
To win: +1700
1RL: +3500
Griffin is first in the field in bogey avoidance and scrambling, which is huge at Waialae where missed greens don’t automatically mean bogey but bad decisions. He’s also top-15 in weighted approach over the past few months, so the irons are holding up. Betting Griffin is about banking on a player that stays mistake-free on a course where patience gets you paid. He doesn’t have the deep Waialae history, but his experience here is telling. In three starts, he’s gained tee-to-green every time, with his irons and drives traveling to this course each time. His top-20 price is fair as a bet on stability, not familiarity.
Chris Kirk: Top 30 (+100)
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Full odds:
Top 30: +100
Top 20: +145
Top 10: +320
Top 5: +650
To win: +4000
1RL: +5500
Kirk is a course-fit bet backed by actual Waialae results. Over his career here, Kirk has posted multiple top 10s and a couple of runners-up. When he has played well, it’s come from gaining heavily on approach and tee-to-green, not random putting spikes. Even in middling finishes, he often gains ball-striking and gives it back on the greens. On short, positional tracks, that profile lands him in the top 30.
Players to consider for Daily Fantasy
Play daily fantasy golf at DraftKings.
Keegan Bradley $9,300: He’s pure tee-to-green play. His irons are elite regardless of venue and Waialae rewards repeatable ballstriking more than creativity. If Captain Keegan is gaining with approach, the fantasy points accumulate quietly and steadily.
Kurt Kitayama $8,900: He’s a good ceiling player; he either wins or finishes 38th and with really no middle ground. He’s volatile, but volatility is fine when it comes from ballstriking with real birdie-or-better upside. On a course that doesn’t require distance, Kitayama’s approach game does the heavy lifting.
Mac Meissner $7,500: In betting, I’m looking for at least one elite trait. Meissner doesn’t have that but for fantasy, he’s solid overall. He has good scrambling and bogey avoidance numbers and at least does have a spike at Wyndham along with lots of mid-finishes. You’re not chasing a win with Meissner, but you’ll get four rounds and clean scoring without downside land mines.
Matt McCarty $7,500: The scrambling is legit, the irons are serviceable and Waialae keeps him from being exposed. McCarty isn’t a ceiling play but he can survive at a low salary and let the rest of the lineup do the work.
Fade: Gary Woodland $7,400: This would be a name click, not a data click. His profile is declining across the board: negative around the green, poor scrambling and repeated failures at comparable courses like Harbour Town and Colonial. Waialae exposes that weakness. If he’s in your pool, that’s name bias. Fade.