WASHINGTON (TNND) — New research indicates a significant shift in the fentanyl crisis, with a major disruption in the illegal fentanyl market possibly linked to actions by the Chinese government.
According to a report published in the journal Science, this “supply shock” may have contributed to a sharp decline in overdose deaths in the U.S. and Canada starting in mid-2023 and continuing into 2024. The report suggests that the flow of illegal fentanyl was interrupted, making it harder to produce and distribute.
Fatal overdoses by the numbers
In 2023, fatal overdoses from synthetic opioids, primarily fentanyl, peaked at 76,000 in the U.S. However, provisional numbers from the CDC show a dramatic decrease in opioid-related overdose deaths, falling to about 54,743 in 2024.
Fentanyl seizures
The U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration reported seizing 45.2 million fentanyl pills in 2025, equivalent to over 380 million lethal doses. This follows a larger seizure in 2024 of more than 60 million fentanyl-laced counterfeit pills and nearly 8,000 pounds of fentanyl powder.
The Trump administration claims its border crackdown is reducing fentanyl trafficking, with a House Homeland Security “Border Brief” noting a 70% decrease in fentanyl seizures at the Southwest border in May 2025 compared to May 2024.
Despite these efforts, the full impact on the total supply remains challenging to measure in real time. Nonetheless, opioid overdose deaths have been steadily declining over the past couple of years.