The Miami Heat swap coasts when they travel to the Bay Area to battle the Golden State Warriors on Martin Luther King Jr. Day.
Miami is traveling light, with standout guard Tyler Herro skipping the trip due to a rib injury. All-Star forward Bam Adebayo has done his best to fill that gap, with my Heat vs. Warriors predictions focusing on his playmaking.
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Here are my best NBA picks for this non-conference clash on Monday, January 19.
Heat vs Warriors prediction
Heat vs Warriors best bet: Bam Adebayo Over 2.5 assists (-150)
With the Miami Heat backcourt down bodies, Bam Adebayo has had to do it all.
On top of scoring and hitting the boards, Adebayo has dished out a total of 17 assists the last four games.
While Miami expects to have Davion Mitchell in action, the offense will continue to run through Adebayo with Herro sidelined.
On the season, Bam is averaging 2.8 dimes on 4.6 potential assists. But in that four-game frame, his potential helpers have jumped to 5.5.
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There’s been a spike in his playmaking over the past month, with Adebayo averaging 3.5 assists in his previous 11 games.
With Herro out, the Golden State Warriors’ defense can focus its attention on Adebayo and force the undersized center to move the ball and create for his teammates.
In his last matchup with the Dubs, Adebayo handed out three assists in another game with the limited Herro in action.
Player projections for tonight’s tilt in San Francisco range from 3.0 to 4.2 assists from Adebayo tonight, with my number at 3.5. That should have the Over 2.5 priced closer to -200 than its current ask of -150 at bet365.
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Heat vs Warriors same-game parlay
The Warriors, 16-6 SU at home this season, are heating up and face a Miami team still missing its top offensive threat.
Adebayo has taken on a bigger playmaking role the past month, averaging 3.5 dimes over his last 11 outings. Bam is projected for as many as 4.5 assists.
Stephen Curry hasn’t been as active from outside the last four games, but his projections still call for five or more triples. Curry faces a Heat defense allowing 13.8 triples per game (10th most).
Heat vs Warriors SGP
Bam Adebayo Over 2.5 assists
Stephen Curry Over 4.5 3-pointers
Our “from downtown” SGP: Big night for Wiggins
Andrew Wiggins scored 17 in this “revenge” matchup last time and is forecasted for 15+ tonight.
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Heat vs Warriors SGP
Bam Adebayo Over 2.5 assists
Stephen Curry Over 4.5 3-pointers
Andrew Wiggins Over 14.5 points
Heat vs Warriors odds
Spread: Heat +5.5 | Warriors -5.5
Moneyline: Heat +185 | Warriors -220
Over/Under: Over 238.5 | Under 238.5
Heat vs Warriors betting trend to know
The Warriors are 5-1 SU and ATS when hosting Eastern Conference foes this season. Find more NBA betting trends for Heat vs. Warriors.
How to watch Heat vs Warriors
Location
Chase Center, San Francisco, CA
Date
Monday, January 19, 2026
Tip-off
10:00 p.m. ET
TV
FDSN-Sun, NBCS-Bay Area
Heat vs Warriors latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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