The first round of the Australian Open wraps up on Day 3 as some of the top players in the world make their 2026 Melbourne debuts. No. 2 seed Jannik Sinner squares off against Frenchman Hugo Gaston. Elsewhere around the grounds, Day 3 welcomes Ben Shelton vs Ugo Humbert, Lorenzo Musetti vs Raphael Collignon, Taylor Fritz vs Valentin Royer, and Karen Khachanov vs Alex Michelsen. Offering their insights and predictions are Zain Mustafa, Ilemona Onekutu, and Tope Oke. But who will advance?
Australian Open Men’s Day 3 Predictions
Christopher O’Connell vs Nishesh Basavareddy
Zain
While Christopher O’Connell’s forehand has the ability to be the biggest weapon on court in this match, and Nishesh Basavareddy hasn’t yet fully developed despite showing flashes of potential, his counterpunching style on Australian Open courts is a valuable asset. I expect a grinded-out match, which the young American eventually closes out.
Prediction: Basavareddy in 5
Ilemona
Basavareddy brings youthful energy and attacking intent, but five-set tennis often exposes lapses in shot tolerance. O’Connell’s experience on these courts and his willingness to absorb pressure before countering should tilt the longer rallies his way.
Prediction: O’Connell in 4
Tope
Nishesh Basavareddy’s tennis has seen an upswing following the hiring of a new coach, Gilles Cervara, who guided Daniil Medvedev to a couple of Australian Open finals. Playing against a seasoned player in front of his home fans will be a daunting task, but the American may just have enough to earn his maiden Grand Slam win.
Prediction: Basavareddy in 4
Rafael Jodar vs Rei Sakamoto
Zain
In a battle between two 19-year-olds, both players looked exceptional in the qualifying rounds and enter the main draw with genuine momentum. Rei Sakamoto will need a strong serving day to fully utilise his aggressive game. But Rafael Jodar is the more reliable and solid baseliner here, and should have enough from the baseline to win this match.
Prediction: Jodar in 4
Ilemona
This one feels like a test of who settles first, but Jodar’s compact technique and court positioning give him a steadier platform in extended exchanges. Over time, that composure should allow him to control the tempo and pull away.
Prediction: Jodar in 5
Tope
Such a same that one of these youngsters who have made giant strides in their careers will have to exit on their Melbourne debut. This promises to be one to look forward to, and I expect it to go the distance with the sharper and more decisive Spaniard edging it.
Prediction: Jodar in 5
Luca Nardi vs Yibing Wu
Zain
Luca Nardi on hard courts is still a question mark for me, with his highs being impressive but too few and far between. Yibing Wu did quite well in qualifying and has been playing with more confidence than his opponent. In a match likely to be determined more by what the players do in rallies than by serve and return, I give the player with more momentum the edge here.
Prediction: Wu in 4
Ilemona
Wu’s explosive ball-striking can be overwhelming when timing clicks, but sustaining that level across a full match is the challenge. Nardi’s defensive skills and ability to redirect pace should draw errors at key moments.
Prediction: Nardi in 4
Tope
Wu is currently the more in-form player; however, he required medical attention during the qualifiers, raising doubts about his current fitness. In that context, Nardi is capable of taking advantage of any slip, and I think this is a bounce-back spot for the Italian to earn his first win in Melbourne.
Prediction: Nardi in 5
Jannik Sinner vs Hugo Gaston
Zain
Two-time defending champion Jannik Sinner is back in Melbourne in his attempt to become just the second men’s player in the Open Era to win three consecutive Australian Open titles. Although he has not played professional tennis for more than two months, the world No.2 will likely have all the answers on court to pass the Hugo Gaston test, even if he is fighting rust and plays closer to his floor level than his ceiling.
Prediction: Sinner in 3
Ilemona
Gaston’s variety can disrupt rhythm, but on a fast hard court it often leaves him scrambling defensively. Sinner’s ability to take the ball early and pin opponents behind the baseline should steadily take the air out of the contest, with his consistency proving decisive over time.
Prediction: Sinner in 3
Tope
Hugo Gaston has reached the second round of his last two appearances in Melbourne, but he won’t be third time lucky. He won’t even win a set against arguably the most relentless player on tour. Sinner will roll.
Prediction: Sinner in 3
Main Photo Credit: Mike Frey – Imagn Images