The first estimate for the 2027 Social Security cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) has been released, and seniors are likely to expect a 0.3 percent decrease from 2026.

The Senior Citizens League said this week that it predicts the 2027 COLA will be 2.5 percent. If so, that’s a 0.3 percent decline from the cost-of-living bump this year.

Why It Matters

Every year, Social Security payments change based on inflation via the COLA. As seniors face higher prices on everything from housing and health care to groceries, the bump is often a much-needed increase to cover basic expenses in retirement.

What To Know

Under the Senior Citizens League’s prediction for 2027, seniors would get an extra $52 on average to their current Social Security checks.

While the official COLA might differ, current inflationary trends suggest a 2.5 percent boost for next year. In 2026, the COLA was set at 2.8 percent.

A 2.5 percent COLA for 2027 would be roughly the same as the average COLA over the last few decades. The average retirement benefit, if enacted, would subsequently be set at $2,123.

The Social Security Administration will not release the official COLA for next year until October, and inflationary trends can slightly change in that time frame.

Michael Ryan, a finance expert and the founder of MichaelRyanMoney.com, said much of the early predictions of the 2027 COLA are just “noise.”

“The COLA formula relies on Q3 inflation data (July-September CPI-W), and we haven’t even hit February yet,” Ryan told Newsweek. “Last year, forecasters predicted 2.2 percent for 2026 back in March 2025, then 2.5 percent in June, before the actual number came in at 2.8 percent. The predictions chase the data, not the other way around.”

What People Are Saying

Kevin Thompson, the CEO of 9i Capital Group and the host of the 9innings podcast, told Newsweek: “The only thing I can predict right now is that the COLA estimate will likely not be accurate. I would take these numbers with a grain of salt. There is still a meaningful amount of data that needs to be processed, and the missing October CPI data alone could materially change the calculation.”

Michael Ryan, a finance expert and the founder of MichaelRyanMoney.com, told Newsweek: “The real story is the squeeze. Even if seniors get 2.5 percent in 2027, Medicare Part B premiums already ate most of 2026’s increase, rising 9.7 percent versus the 2.8 percent COLA. It’s a recurring problem: Social Security uses CPI-W (which tracks working-age spending patterns), not CPI-E (which tracks actual senior expenses like healthcare). Research shows that if we used CPI-E, the 2024 COLA would’ve been 4 percent instead of 3.2 percent.”

Alex Beene, a financial literacy instructor for the University of Tennessee at Martin, told Newsweek: “The rapid inflation of a few years ago has subsided, and in accordance with more moderate upticks in pricings, so too will be the COLA adjustments for subsequent years. This, of course, isn’t a done deal. We still have 10 more months of data to take in before the final adjustment is announced, and that will largely depend on inflationary pressures rising or falling throughout this year. As for right now, though, seniors should plan for a more moderate adjustment to their Social Security checks next year.”

What Happens Next

If the prediction is accurate, it’s reasonable to assume that Medicare premium increases could absorb much, if not all, of any COLA increase for some seniors, Thompson said.

“While the administration continues to highlight efforts to address Part D prescription drug pricing, that does not necessarily mitigate overall premium increases,” Thompson said. “In real terms, many seniors may see little to no improvement in their net monthly benefit.”