When the Vegas Golden Knights come to Toronto Friday night, many eyes will be on former Maple Leaf Mitch Marner. From the perspective of where the Leafs currently stand, the focus should be on what’s around him instead — and how the Golden Knights acquired it.

Jack Eichel, Mark Stone, Tomas Hertl, Noah Hanifin, Rasmus Andersson. All top-of-the-lineup impact players; all acquired with something equivalent to a first-round pick as the centerpiece, with more added depending on how impactful the player was. 

Eichel went for the equivalent of a roster player, two firsts and a second. Stone went for the equivalent of a first and two seconds. Hertl went for the equivalent of two firsts (with two thirds coming back). Hanifin went for a first and a conditional third. Andersson went for a first, a conditional second and a depth defenseman.

Contrast that directly with how the Leafs approached last year’s deadline, and the difference is stark.

Depending on how you feel about Fraser Minten, the Leafs arguably paid more for Brandon Carlo, a No. 5 defender, last year than Vegas paid for either Hanifin or Andersson, two top-pair guys. Based on draft pick value, Vegas paid the equivalent of one extra low-end second-round pick for Hertl (draft value of 4.4 wins), a top-six center with term, compared to Toronto’s steep price for Scott Laughton (draft value of 3.2 wins), who the Leafs are using as a fourth-line center. That’s a role that could’ve been easily filled internally by Minten, adding another layer to last season’s deadline disaster. The only saving grace is that the Leafs didn’t trade their top prospect, Easton Cowan, for Brayden Schenn, an aging and expensive third-line center. Kudos to that, I guess.

Different years and different markets, yes, but the concept still holds: The Leafs paid premium prices for depth players that didn’t really fill a need, and Vegas has used similar premium assets to acquire actual difference-makers.

If there isn’t a good trade to make, don’t make one. That’s a great philosophy many of the league’s top teams live by. In desperation, the Leafs opted for an extremely costly and short-sighted path that didn’t move the needle much, and it’s one they’re now paying the price for in opportunity lost. 

The Leafs enter this year’s deadline in a precarious position: low on assets, outside a playoff spot and without their first-round pick. All avoidable problems exacerbated by the fact that the solution to some of their woes is right there on the trade market.

In the summer, Noah Dobson, an actual No. 1-caliber defenseman, was traded for two firsts and a young roster player — relatively close to the assets the Leafs gave up for Carlo and Laughton. Later in the year, the second-best defenseman in the world, Quinn Hughes, went for the equivalent of four firsts, a price the Leafs probably wouldn’t match but could at least entertain if not for the deadline deals. 

Perhaps most intriguing right now are reports that Robert Thomas’ name is out there on the market, according to Chris Johnston’s latest trade board. It cannot be understated how perfect Thomas would fit on this team. 

Thomas is a right-shot, playmaking center who handles tough matchups well and creates high-danger setups better than almost any other player in the league. Whether it’s as a Marner replacement next to Auston Matthews or a 2C who can ease some of Matthews’ defensive burden, Thomas would solve a lot of problems in Toronto. His projected Net Rating is around plus-11 and would be enough of an upgrade to push the Leafs toward becoming a top 10 team again. With Dougie Hamilton available (yes, the money can work for both with some flotsam removal and Chris Tanev on LTIR) as a potential improvement on defense, there is a real path back to contention for Toronto on the trade market right now.

The unfortunate reality, though, is that the cost to acquire Thomas would be prohibitive after what the Leafs already squandered on lesser players. 

The Athletic’s Jeremy Rutherford and Shayna Goldman broke down what a possible return for Thomas could look like on Wednesday, and it includes a likely high price the Leafs would currently struggle to pay. Both Eichel’s and Hertl’s deals were mentioned as comparable packages, which means any likely deal could start with two firsts that the Leafs don’t immediately have. The Leafs could dangle future firsts and Cowan (who would only be worth trading for a player as valuable as Thomas), but that would create significantly more risk with Matthews unsigned beyond 2028, depending on how far into the future Toronto’s pick is. 

Thomas is the type of player on a great contract that might be worth trying to get anyway with an all-in move. In for a penny, in for a pound, right? Acquiring Thomas might help convince Matthews to stay beyond 2027-28 if it helps get the Leafs back to contention. However, Toronto’s lack of assets means it could only go so far and would likely lose a bidding war against teams that are better set up to make a move for a player such as Thomas.

The Leafs could make it happen, but it’s extremely unlikely because of what they have already wasted assets on. It’s why the team’s window is closing quickly and why the opposing attitude in Vegas has kept the team’s competitive window wide open year after year.

The potential answer to Toronto’s problems is on the trade market right now, but the Leafs’ shortsightedness means the team’s problems will more than likely continue to go unsolved.

Stock Watch

The biggest changes in projected value over the last 10 games.

Risers

Oliver Ekman-Larsson
Net Rating: up 1.6

The Leafs may not have a true No. 1 defenseman, but it has been nice to see Ekman-Larsson elevate his game this season back into the top-four range. He’s cleaned things up defensively of late and been one of the team’s biggest offensive drivers. The model now rates him higher than Morgan Rielly, which possibly speaks just as much to the drop-off in Rielly’s game. Ekman-Larsson Wednesday’s game against Detroit with an injury; losing him for any stretch of time would be tough to handle, he’s become that important to the blue line.

Matias Maccelli
Net Rating: up 1.1

It is truly stunning that Maccelli was scratched for almost a whole month. He’s looked great since and is easily one of Toronto’s top nine forwards and most creative and dynamic players — and as a result, he’s been given an increased role. That increase is the main source of Maccelli’s bump in value, specifically a spot on the top power play. It’s worth noting that his inclusion there is one of the things that sparked a turnaround. Matthews has been on for 9.2 power-play goals per 60 with Maccelli on the ice, and 5.4 otherwise.

Fallers

Jake McCabe
Net Rating: down 1.9

A lot of people figured McCabe’s numbers would regress at some point, and they did in a hurry over the last nine games. McCabe was starting to grade out as a strong No. 2 defenseman with great defensive value going into the New Year, but this latest stretch has knocked him back down closer to where he started the season. McCabe’s current projected Net Rating of plus-3.5 is pretty good, but as far as each team’s top defensive options go, it’s far from ideal. Only two teams, Chicago and Calgary, have a worse top option.

Easton Cowan
Net Rating: down 1.2

After a strong start to his NHL career, Cowan has hit the rookie wall. To his credit, he has five points over his last nine games which is great for his role, but that role continues to diminish as the rookie mistakes continue to climb — especially his penchant for taking bad penalties. Getting bulldozed by Moritz Seider in overtime to hand Detroit the win on Wednesday night was emblematic of a larger trend.

Stars and Scrubs

The top and bottom three Leafs over the last 10 games, relative to expectations.

Stars

Oliver Ekman-Larsson
Net Rating: +1.9

Ekman-Larsson has looked vintage and was particularly strong over the last nine games, his plus-1.7 Net Rating led all Leafs players. He led the team’s defense in points with six, had the highest xG rate at 48 percent and outscored opponents by the highest margin. 

Scott Laughton
Net Rating: +0.1

I ragged on the Laughton deal earlier for how expensive it was, but to his credit, he’s really come into his own of late. He scored three goals over the last nine games and was one of Toronto’s best players at five-on-five. An average Net Rating for the team’s 4C is a big win.

Steven Lorentz
Net Rating: -0.1

Considering his role on the fourth line, Lorentz exceeded expectations over the last bit with one of the team’s best xG marks (48.3 percent) while outscoring opponents 5-3 and earning three points. That Lorentz was among the leaders in xG is probably not the best sign.

Scrubs

Jake McCabe
Net Rating: -2.9

Troy Stecher
Net Rating: -1.8

The shutdown pair was due for a crash back to earth after immediately finding strong chemistry; we just didn’t expect it to look this ugly. Stecher’s magic seemed to wear off, while McCabe had his work cut out for him against some of the best teams in the West. The Leafs were outscored 8-1 with McCabe on the ice in particular. That was a team worst, as was his 33 percent xG rate.

Bobby McMann
Net Rating: -1.4

The problem with McMann is how hot and cold his game can be. Over his last eight games, McMann has just two goals. Before tha,t he had five goals and eight points over his previous nine games. That’s what separates a true top six forward from a top nine forward and over the last little bit, McMann was even worse than that. His minus-1.4 Net Rating was worst among forwards.

Auston Matthews
Net Rating: -0.2

There’s no question Matthews has been the team’s best offensive player over the last while, leading the team in goals and points. However, the whole “playing tough minutes with Bobby McMann and Max Domi next to him” is starting to look ugly. Matthews looks closer to himself lately, and it shouldn’t be lost on anyone that McMann and Domi were last among Leafs forwards in Net Rating. But Matthews still got crushed in tough minutes with a 37 percent xG leading to a minus-1.2 Defensive Rating. That was the worst among forwards. He’s getting his points again which is nice, but his overall game took a step back over the last nine.

Quick Questions

A look at where the Leafs are and where they’re going.

Are the Leafs better than they were 10 games ago?

Change in Offensive Rating: +2.5
Change in Defensive Rating: -5.1
Change in Net Rating: -2.6

The important thing is the Leafs have banked some points and mostly kept up with a hot Atlantic Division. But boy, are they playing with fire the way they’ve protected leads and played against tough competition. 

Yes, the tough schedule matters, but there’s still no excuse for a league-worst 41.3 percent xG in all situations — two percentage points worse than the next best team. The Leafs have been a defensive mess and it’s shown in their Defensive Rating dropping by five goals. To Toronto’s credit, the team had a strong outing analytically against the Red Wings, but prior to that had an xG below 45 percent in seven straight outings.

Where do the Leafs stand in the Atlantic?

Chances of making the playoffs: 41.3 percent
Chances of winning the division: 0.2 percent
Most likely landing spot: 6th

The Ottawa Senators’ collapse over the same time frame has been the main driving force behind the Leafs’ improved playoff odds, but it hasn’t been enough to push them over 50 percent. The top five teams in the Atlantic keep winning, creating a real possibility that the Leafs will be the eighth-best team in the East and miss the playoffs anyway, finishing sixth. The Leafs are currently projected for 92 points which is the same as the Capitals — and yet Toronto’s playoff odds are 14 percentage points worse.

Are the Leafs a contender?

Chances of 105 points or more: 1.7 percent
Chances of advancing to the conference finals: 4.5 percent
League-wide ranking: 16th in Net Rating, 14th in projected points

Still no. There were moments during the point streak when the team showed flashes, but the last five games have pushed the team back down to reality.

— Data via Evolving Hockey, Natural Stat Trick, and Hockey Stat Cards