The third fierce confrontation between China and the United States has begun. Whether Trump can visit China as he wishes depends on this time

China and the United States have started the third round of economic and trade “battle” in Sweden, while the United States has repeatedly shown goodwill but made harsh demands. Can Trump break the deadlock through this negotiation and pave the way for his next trip to China?

A new round of economic and trade talks between China and the United States kicked off in Stockholm, Sweden this week. This meeting is seen by the outside world as a key step that may create conditions for Trump’s visit to China.

According to Lianhe Zaobao, many scholars are optimistic about the results of the talks and believe that the two sides are expected to reach a phased agreement. You know, this is the third round of high-level economic and trade consultations between China and the United States since Trump launched the tariff war in April.

The first two rounds of negotiations were held in Geneva, Switzerland and London, UK respectively. Although a 90-day tariff truce agreement was reached, this “truce period” is about to expire on August 12.

The Hong Kong South China Morning Post learned from an informed source that one of the focuses of this Swedish meeting is to extend the “truce period”. The two sides may agree to give each other another three months, during which they promise not to impose new tariffs on each other.

Interestingly, just before the negotiations, the United States made frequent moves. First, it was reported that a high-level business delegation would be sent to China, led by the CEO of FedEx, and accompanied by executives of major companies such as Boeing. This will be the highest-level business delegation sent by the United States since the tariff war, and it is obvious that it is to pave the way for Trump’s visit to China.

Then, US Secretary of State Rubio once again came out to call for a “mutually respectful” relationship with China to prevent misunderstandings. This wording is in sharp contrast to the previous tough “America First” argument.

This series of gestures of goodwill, no matter how you look at it, seems to create an atmosphere for negotiations, thereby paving the way for Trump’s visit to China. But as the saying goes, it’s a lie to talk without doing. In an interview with FOX, US Treasury Secretary Bensont revealed his true colors. He said that the key to reaching an agreement is that China must buy more American goods, especially agricultural products and energy.

Does this sound familiar? Trump made the same request in 2020. At that time, China did increase its purchases, but the United States turned its back on China and imposed various restrictions. China learned from its mistakes and took a “preemptive strike” this time.

Just look at the customs data to know that in June this year, China’s imports of crude oil, natural gas and coal from the United States were almost zero.

This is no accident. Since February, China has imposed tariffs on some US energy products, with a 10% tariff on crude oil and a 15% tariff on liquefied natural gas (LNG) and coal. This move hits the pain point of the United States. After all, China is the world’s largest energy consumption market. If this piece of fat meat is suddenly gone, how can American energy companies not jump?

The United States is obviously aware of the seriousness of the problem. This time, the negotiations suddenly raised a new topic-demanding China to reduce energy imports from Russia and Iran.

Bessant even threatened to impose a “secondary sanctions tax” of up to 100% on countries that buy oil from these two countries. This is clearly to force China to buy more American energy so that Trump can bring back some “political achievements” when he visits China.

But the US’s “carrot and stick” strategy may not work in China. First of all, China’s energy imports have long been diversified. Russia, Saudi Arabia, and Iran are all important suppliers. It is not necessary to buy American goods.

Secondly, China now has a lot of bargaining chips, from rare earths to manufacturing, which is not the basis for negotiations? The most important thing is that after experiencing the trade war in recent years, China has long seen through the US routine and will not be easily fooled again.

It is worth noting that the APEC summit will be held in South Korea at the end of October. There are reports that Trump may take the opportunity to visit China or meet with China during the summit. But to achieve this goal, the United States must first show sincerity.

China’s attitude is very clear: we can talk, but we will never accept blackmail. We have enough confidence and bargaining chips, and the US’s threat of “secondary sanctions” will only make negotiations more difficult.

In the final analysis, it is the United States that is really riding a tiger and it is difficult to get off. Domestic inflation is high, enterprises are complaining, and farmers are complaining. China urgently needs to open up the Chinese market. However, they can’t let go of their face and want to put on a condescending attitude. This mentality of wanting both is destined to make the negotiations full of variables.

Judging from the current situation, this Swedish meeting is likely to achieve some phased results, such as extending the “truce period” and resuming some commodity trade. But to achieve a fundamental breakthrough, I am afraid we have to wait for Trump to come to China in person to talk. After all, economic and trade issues affect the whole body, and they cannot be solved by a few negotiations.

For China, the key is to maintain strategic determination. Neither write “empty checks” nor block the road. You have your “America First”, and I have my development rights.

It’s best if we can reach an agreement, but we are not afraid if we can’t. This confidence comes from China’s huge domestic demand market, from a complete industrial system, and from the rich experience accumulated in dealing with trade wars in recent years.

Looking to the future, China-US economic and trade relations are likely to enter a new stage of “fighting and talking”. The tariff war will not end easily, but a complete decoupling is unlikely either. The two sides will seek a balance in the struggle and explore ways to coexist in the game. The upcoming Trump visit to China may become an important node in this process.