AST SpaceMobile recently confirmed that its next-generation BlueBird 7 satellite, identical to BlueBird 6 and featuring a nearly 2,400-square-foot communications array, is scheduled to launch in late February on Blue Origin’s New Glenn rocket from Cape Canaveral.
Alongside this, the company’s selection for the Missile Defense Agency’s SHIELD program highlights how its large, dual-use LEO phased-array technology is being pulled into both commercial connectivity and emerging homeland defense architectures.
We’ll now look at how the confirmed BlueBird 7 launch on New Glenn reshapes AST SpaceMobile’s investment narrative and risk profile.
We’ve found 13 US stocks that are forecast to pay a dividend yield of over 6% next year. See the full list for free.
To own AST SpaceMobile here, you have to believe its enormous direct‑to‑phone satellites can move from eye‑catching prototypes to a functioning commercial network before funding, execution and competition catch up. The confirmed BlueBird 7 launch on New Glenn is a meaningful catalyst because it directly addresses one of the market’s near‑term concerns: whether ASTS can keep anything like its planned launch cadence after BlueBird 6. Coupled with the new SHIELD prime contract, it also broadens the story beyond consumer connectivity into dual‑use government work, which may help diversify future revenue streams but also adds complexity and dependence on uncertain task orders. Against a very large 12‑month share price gain and a valuation above both analyst targets and book, the core risks now feel more about execution, capital intensity and timing than raw technology.
However, this new launch window does not remove the funding and dilution risk investors should be watching. AST SpaceMobile’s share price has been on the slide but might be up to 9% below fair value. Find out if it’s a bargain.
ASTS 1-Year Stock Price Chart
Sixty‑one fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community span a wide range, from almost zero to just over US$100 per share, underscoring how far apart views are on AST SpaceMobile. Set that against a stock that has already delivered a very large one‑year return and now leans heavily on flawless BlueBird deployment to justify expectations, and you can see why different investors might reach very different conclusions about what happens next.
Explore 61 other fair value estimates on AST SpaceMobile – why the stock might be worth as much as $102.38!
Disagree with this assessment? Create your own narrative in under 3 minutes – extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.
Our top stock finds are flying under the radar-for now. Get in early:
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include ASTS.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com