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AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) is in focus after confirming a late February launch window for its BlueBird 7 satellite on Blue Origin’s New Glenn rocket, along with fresh attention on its recent SHIELD defense contract award.
See our latest analysis for AST SpaceMobile.
The confirmed BlueBird 7 launch window and SHIELD contract news arrive after a sharp swing in sentiment, with a 69.62% 30 day share price return and a very large 1 year total shareholder return. This suggests momentum has recently strengthened again despite earlier skepticism about execution risk.
If you are looking beyond AST SpaceMobile and want to see what else is taking off in related areas, this could be a good moment to scan aerospace and defense stocks for other space and defense names tied to similar themes.
With AST SpaceMobile now trading above its average analyst price target and its recent share price surge, the key question is whether the current valuation already reflects the BlueBird rollout and SHIELD upside or whether the market is still underpricing future growth.
At a last close of $121.23 versus a narrative fair value of $71.51, the widely followed story around AST SpaceMobile bakes in a big premium and leans heavily on aggressive execution.
Vertically integrated manufacturing with a targeted cadence of six BlueBird satellites per month and plans for 45 to 60 satellites by the end of 2026, scaling toward 90 to 100 satellites, should drive operating leverage and improve net margins as capital intensity per unit of capacity declines over time.
Curious what kind of revenue surge, margin shift and earnings ramp would need to materialize to support that gap between price and fair value? The narrative leans on steep growth, a sharp profitability swing and a future earnings multiple above the current US Telecom average. If you want to see exactly how those moving pieces are stitched together, the full story breaks down the assumptions line by line.
Result: Fair Value of $71.51 (OVERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.
However, this story can break if satellite deployment slips or partner usage of SpaceMobile services lags commitments. This would put the current growth narrative under pressure.
Find out about the key risks to this AST SpaceMobile narrative.
If you see the numbers differently or prefer to test your own assumptions, you can build a fresh story around the data in just a few minutes, starting with Do it your way.
A great starting point for your AST SpaceMobile research is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
If you only stop at one stock, you could miss opportunities that fit your goals even better, so use the screener to keep your watchlist fresh and focused.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include ASTS.
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