Israel’s recent decision to recognise Somaliland as a sovereign state has sparked condemnation from several countries and regional blocs around the world. Given Somaliland’s strategic location along the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea, experts say Israel’s move and geopolitical strategy are aimed at gaining influence, reshaping regional power dynamics, and monitoring activities in the Red Sea.

On 26 December 2025, Israel became the first country in the world to formally recognise the breakaway state of Somaliland as an independent and sovereign state. Although Somaliland has operated as a de facto state with its own institutions, passport, currency, security forces, and a democratic system that has enjoyed peaceful transfers of power since it declared independence on 18 May 1991 after Somalia descended into civil war, it failed to gain recognition from United Nations member states.

Israel’s December decision was celebrated in Hargeisa, Somaliland’s capital. However, Somalia still considers Somaliland a part of its territory. In an X post, Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud says Israel’s declaration is an ‘illegal aggression’ and ‘contrary to established legal and diplomatic rules.’ Other countries and regional organisations, including the Arab  League Council, the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation, the European Union, and the African Union responded to Israel’s decision by reaffirming Somalia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, some actors strongly rejected or even condemned the move.

But this is not the first time talks about recognising Somaliland are coming up. In January 2024, Ethiopia and Somaliland signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU), which was never published, but was reportedly intended to grant landlocked Ethiopia access to 20 kilometres of Somaliland’s coastline for 50 years and pave the way for formal recognition of Somaliland by Ethiopia. 

Also, in June 2025, influential Republicans in the United States introduced a bill calling for the U.S. to recognise Somaliland ‘as a separate [and] independent country’. Additionally, the Texas Republican Senator Ted Cruz, in August 2025, wrote to Donald Trump asking him to formally recognise Somaliland as an independent state. In response to Cruz’s letter, Dahir Hassan, Somalia’s ambassador to the U.S., warned in a statement that ‘any policy that weakens Somali sovereignty would only embolden extremists and threaten the stability of the entire Horn of Africa.’

Meanwhile, following Israel’s formal recognition in December 2026, Trump, in an interview with the New York Post, said he will not swiftly follow in recognising Somaliland. ‘Does anyone know what Somaliland is, really?’ Trump asked.

Abdirashid Ibrahim Abdirahman, a policy expert who has served as Somaliland’s Director-General of the Ministries of Planning and National Development, Social Affairs and Labour, and currently the Director-General of the Ministry of Trade and Tourism, said mixed reactions are common ‘when political positions are challenged’. Somaliland was a British protectorate until 26 June 1960. It became independent for just five days, and then merged with the former Italian Somalia to form the Somali Republic. But the Republic plunged into a violent struggle and bloody civil war in the 1980s, and then in 1991, Somaliland declared its independence, which Abdirahman described as a ‘continuation of the independent state [of] 1960’.  

‘Recognition does not create a new reality; it acknowledges an existing one. Israel’s decision reflects a growing tendency to assess Somaliland based on democratic governance, stability, and performance, rather than outdated assumptions,’ Abdirahman told FairPlanet, adding that countries and regional blocs opposing the recognition only ‘overlook Somaliland’s historical and legal foundations.’ 

Regional power struggles

Home to a little above six million people, Somaliland is strategically located along the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea, and has a 850km-long coastline running along one of the busiest maritime corridors in the world. Considering Somaliland’s proximity to Yemen, where Israel has conducted airstrikes against the Iran-backed Houthis targets, experts, such as Ehud Yaari, the Lafer International Fellow at The Washington Institute, say that by recognising Somaliland, Israel will ‘establish a diplomatic presence and possible security presence’ in the Red Sea Basin.

Frank-Collins Okafor, a professor of international relations and strategic studies at Nigeria’s Nnamdi Azikiwe University, Awka, told FairPlanet in a phone interview that Israel’s decision would effectively serve its national security interests, particularly helping Israel monitor activities and the Houthis’ influence in the Red Sea. Already, the Trump administration has designated the Houthis as a Foreign Terrorist Organisation, a development that took effect on 4 March 2025.

‘Israel is trying to leverage the strategic geo-position of Somaliland. Israel needs access to the Red Sea, and Somaliland provides that access easily to Israel. And knowing the trajectory of the crisis between Israel and its neighbours, Somaliland remains a very attractive option for Israel,’ Okafor explained.

But beyond access to the Red Sea, Okafor added that ‘Israel is also looking for a strategic geo-position through which it can maintain its hold in the region. Somaliland is strategically positioned; from that place, you can fire, monitor, and access information on movement across the area.’ 

According to a November 2025 report by Asher Lubotzky, an analyst with the Institute for National Security Studies, an Israeli think tank, ‘Israel requires allies in the Red Sea region for many strategic reasons, among them the possibility of a future campaign against the Houthis […]. Somaliland is an ideal candidate for such cooperation, as it could offer Israel potential access to an operational area close to the conflict zone.’

While Abdul-Malik al-Houthi, the Houthis’ leader, warned that any Israeli presence in Somaliland would be considered a threat and a military target, Abdirahman argued that there is no evidence to show Israel’s recognition is aimed against the Houthis, citing that Somaliland’s security strategy is ‘inward-focused’ and only aimed at preserving internal stability.

‘Claims that the recognition is aimed against the Houthis or involves an Israeli military base are unfounded,’ Abdirahman said. ‘Somaliland has been explicit that its partnerships are based on sovereignty, mutual respect, and civilian cooperation – not proxy conflicts or foreign military agendas.’ 

Addressing fears of secessionist movements springing up

There are growing fears that Israel’s recognition of Somaliland would encourage separatist and secessionist movements on the continent – such as Biafra in Nigeria and Ambazonia in Cameroon – to advance their cause with the hope of being recognised internationally. 

But Okafor thinks otherwise. ‘It may encourage them politically but [not] in terms of real action,’ he said. ‘Israel has a reason for recognising Somaliland and it’s because of the direct benefit. The situation may not be for other secessionist groups.’

Meanwhile, Abdirahman argued that Somaliland is ‘not a secessionist case’ but that of ‘re-recognition’, arguing that its borders align with those of the former British Protectorate, adding that Israel’s recognition has effectively broken decades of diplomatic silence and that other countries will be encouraged to recognise the region as an independent state.

‘Israel’s decision is significant because it breaks a long-standing diplomatic hesitation, where many states privately acknowledged Somaliland’s reality but avoided being the first to formalise recognition,’ he said. ‘That silence has now been broken, creating political space for others to act.’