The Penguins overall season record last year was 34-36-12, placing them seventh in the Metropolitan Division with 80 points, and well off the playoff bar of 91 points. How did they get to those 80 points?
Here’s the breakdown by opponent:
Pittsburgh record sorted by opponent, 2024-25
Opponent
Record
Points
Games
Points/Game
Opponent
Record
Points
Games
Points/Game
Anaheim Ducks
1-1-0
2
2
1.00
Boston Bruins
1-2-0
2
3
0.67
Buffalo Sabres
2-1-0
4
3
1.33
Calgary Flames
1-0-1
3
2
1.50
Carolina Hurricanes
0-2-1
1
3
0.33
Chicago Blackhawks
1-1-0
2
2
1.00
Colorado Avalanche
0-2-0
0
2
0.00
Columbus Blue Jackets
1-1-1
3
3
1.00
Dallas Stars
1-1-0
2
2
1.00
Detroit Red Wings
1-1-1
3
3
1.00
Edmonton Oilers
1-1-0
2
2
1.00
Florida Panthers
1-0-2
4
3
1.33
Los Angeles Kings
2-0-0
4
2
2.00
Minnesota Wild
1-1-0
2
2
1.00
Montreal Canadiens
3-0-0
6
3
2.00
Nashville Predators
2-0-0
4
2
2.00
New Jersey Devils
2-1-1
5
4
1.25
New York Islanders
1-2-1
3
4
0.75
New York Rangers
1-3-0
2
4
0.50
Ottawa Senators
1-1-1
3
3
1.00
Philadelphia Flyers
2-2-0
4
4
1.00
San Jose Sharks
1-1-0
2
2
1.00
Seattle Kraken
0-2-0
0
2
0.00
St. Louis Blues
1-0-1
3
2
1.50
Tampa Bay Lightning
0-2-1
1
3
0.33
Toronto Maple Leafs
1-1-1
3
3
1.00
Utah Hockey Club
1-1-0
2
2
1.00
Vancouver Canucks
1-1-0
2
2
1.00
Vegas Golden Knights
1-1-0
2
2
1.00
Washington Capitals
2-2-0
4
4
1.00
Winnipeg Jets
0-2-0
0
2
0.00
80
82
If you’re Dan Muse and you’re actually trying to win games next season, what does this data tell you about opportunities for improvement?
The mark of a bad team is not being able to reliably beat bad teams, and that applied to the 2024-25 Penguins. Pittsburgh only went 18-16-5 against non-2025 playoff teams. That’s only a 78-point pace in a full season and looking back on the season results is a huge disappointment to go a combined 3-6-0 against teams in the San Jose, Chicago, Boston and Seattle portion of the schedule. Those represented four of the six worst teams in the league and the Pens had troubles with them.
Against teams that qualified for the playoffs, the Pens posted a 16-15-7 record. Thanks to dragging some games into overtime, that’s actually an 84-point pace in a full season — slightly better than how they faired against the non-playoff teams. Those results are influenced by going 3-0-0 against a Montreal team that just barely qualified for the playoffs – drop them and the conversation changes. But, still, all and all, the Pens actually did put up a decent fight against some the top teams in the league.
It seemed like Pittsburgh always played Colorado and Tampa really well, for unknown reasons in recent years even in the decline the Pens usually had something for those clubs. That trend reversed in a major way with an 0-4-1 record this year that’s more fitting to the respective team talent levels.
Add in 0-4-1 against Carolina and Winnipeg, and, yeah the Pens did have troubles against the superior teams.
The NHL is a “hold serve” type of league, The Pens went 1-1-0 or 1-1-1 against 13 out of their 31 opponents last season.
Teams the Pens didn’t win against: 5 (CAR, COL, SEA, TB, WIN). As mentioned before, one of those teams was not like the others there smack dab in the middle of the list..
Teams the Pens didn’t lose against: 3 (LAK, MTL, NSH). Three more that they avoided all regulation losses (CGY, FLA, STL).
The Metropolitan Division was a tough time for the Pens, who went just 9-13-4 against their division opponents. Surprisingly, Pittsburgh was 2-1-1 against New Jersey – a team that usually gives them fits. It was the other NYC area teams (2-5-1 combined against NYI and NYR) that caused a lot of pain, considering neither was very good last year.
Maybe the Pens should ask for admittance into the Atlantic Division? Pittsburgh was 10-8-6 against the other division in the Eastern Conference, which might not sound so hot but represents an 88-point pace that is about as good as you can get to move and shake the data into something favorable.
Pittsburgh managed to bank a tidy 32 points in 32 games against the Western Conference. That slightly over-performed their marks against the East (48 total points in 50 games) but not to a large degree.
The wrap-up is easier said than done but the takeaways for someone in Dan Muse’s position is that he has to get better results within the division. Carolina is always a tough night at the office for the Pens, but beyond them the division isn’t really that impressive (and might be the worst in the league). That area of performance is an obvious one to seek improvements on from last year.
Beyond that, it seems an attainable ask to perform a little better against the other bad teams of the league. The Pens had a winning season record against just three non-playoff teams last year (NSH, BUF, CGY), broke even against nine teams and had a losing record against four (BOS, NYI, NYR, SEA). In theory it shouldn’t be difficult to out-perform last years results in that area.
But where there’s positive regression, there can also be a flip side of the coin. Is the team going to go on an 84-point pace against playoff teams again, while having a winning season record (i.e. take more than one point per game) against more playoff clubs than they have a losing season against? It was 5-4 last year in that regard; the Pens performed well against FLA, LAK, MTL, NJD, STL and couldn’t get to a point/game against CAR, COL, TB and WIN. That’s not likely to happen and could be an area that right-sizes next season if the better teams can attain more fitting and predictable results.
All in all, last year’s results show that for a team like Pittsburgh it often depends on what kind of night the opponent has to dictate how the game goes. If it’s a good team that is playing a backup goalie or doesn’t bring their A-game, the Pens can and have done relatively well. If it’s a fellow low-end team that’s making it scrappy or a divisional opponent, Pittsburgh didn’t always have the ability to gain good results. Being a bad team can create a lot of random variance and noise, looking at last year can only tell so much for the future but the data does present some hints for Muse and the new coaches about what pitfalls they may be facing in the season ahead.