There’s one statistic that shows where Texas has improved considerably since the start of the Steve Sarkisian era. The progress in that same statistic also stagnated in 2025 and was indicative of shortcomings in other areas of the program, shortcomings which led to Texas missing the 2025 College Football Playoff.
The Longhorns were 3-2 in one-score games in 2025, with two of those victories coming on the road in overtime versus Kentucky and Mississippi State and another occurring against Vanderbilt after a furious Commodores comeback. The two losses were the season opening 14-7 defeat at Ohio State and the disappointing 29-21 loss to Florida at the Swamp.
3-2 is nothing to scoff at, but it’s a win-loss record that hasn’t quite improved since Sarkisian turned Texas into a CFP contender.
There was an obvious switch that flipped in between the 2022 and 2023 seasons. Entering the Longhorns’ final year in the Big 12, Texas under Sarkisian was 4-10 in one-score games. That 4-10 mark was split evenly, with 2-5 showings in 2021 and 2022.
In 2023, Texas jumped to 3-2 in those one-score games. Sometimes, those single possession contests were the products of disappointing performances against lower quality teams. That certainly held true for games versus Oklahoma, Houston, and TCU in 2023, games where Texas was 2-1. Oklahoma finished the year with 10 wins, but Houston and TCU combined to go 9-15 with both teams under .500. It spoke to progress that Texas could play poorly and, for the most part, emerge victorious in those contests, but it also spoke to the performances that put Texas into one-score games.
In 2024, the Longhorns were 2-1 in one-score contests, winning at a ranked Vanderbilt team and then emerging from the Peach Bowl versus Arizona State victorious. The lone setback was a 22-19 loss in overtime to Georgia in the SEC Championship.
Texas had fewer one-score games in 2024, something that speaks to how well Texas typically played. In fact, Texas had more double digit wins (Colorado State, Michigan, UTSA, ULM, Mississippi State, Oklahoma, Florida, Arkansas, Kentucky, Texas A&M, Clemson) in 2024 than wins total in 2022.
But Texas fell back down to earth some in 2025, playing in five one-possession games again.
Ohio State – 14-7 L
Florida – 29-21 L
Kentucky – 16-13 W
Mississippi State – 45-38 W
Vanderbilt – 34-31 W
The Ohio State game almost stands on its own compared to the other contests. In a heavyweight 15-round battle between two top teams, the Longhorns and the Buckeyes put on a fight that cycled through every scheduled round with OSU logging the couple of needed knockdowns to win on the score card.
Florida was a walloping and created a result indicative of a team that, though talented, didn’t possess the types of battle scars squads like the 2023 and 2024 Longhorns had on their marches to the CFP.
Kentucky and Mississippi State were similar, except those same players that didn’t know how to handle difficult environments earlier in the year? They were able to figure things out in the nick of time to bring overtime victories back to Austin.
Vanderbilt, somewhat similar to Ohio State, is in its own category. If not for injures decimating the defensive backfield and a controversial call or four, Texas wins this game by multiple touchdowns. Young Longhorns like Jonah Williams and Kade Phillips were thrust into crunch time versus accomplished players like Diego Pavia and Eli Stowers. Williams and Phillips did just enough to help Texas hang on.
The fact that Texas played in that many one-score games is one thing, but it shouldn’t be seen as a pure negative. Georgia played in six one-score games, logging a 4-2 record. Indiana played four in 16 games and won all of them. Oregon was 2-0 in one-possession games. Ole Miss was 6-2.
The ball can bounce a lot of different ways. Just ask Arkansas, who was 0-6 in one-possession games. That Arkansas team lost 10 straight to end the season.
Making sure the team is talented enough to overcome bad bounces is something Texas should have in its back pocket in 2026.
But that talented team being able to answer the call when a play is needed when the margins are thin? Texas could stand to improve there if it wants to advance past the semifinals of the College Football Playoff.