The Toronto Maple Leafs were in the midst of a last-place season the last time they sold at the trade deadline.
It was 10 years ago, and a front office managed by Lou Lamoriello dealt away the likes of Dion Phaneuf, Shawn Matthias, James Reimer, Daniel Winnik and Roman Polak for a collection of players — and most importantly, draft picks.
Two of those picks, both second-rounders, were used on Carl Grundström (2016) and Sean Durzi (2018), who were later flipped together in the package that brought Jake Muzzin to Toronto.
And that figures to be the goal of the current front office, led by Brad Treliving, ahead of the upcoming March 6 trade deadline: bring in some future assets that help the club retool in the offseason.
The picture today is a little more complicated than it was in 2016. The Leafs aren’t in a full-on rebuild. Therefore, the sell-off is unlikely to go as deep. Who’s likely to stay? Who’s likely to go?
Let’s prognosticate.
Untouchable franchise cornerstones
Auston Matthews: No. 1 centres are almost impossible to find. The Leafs went almost a decade without one before Matthews’ emphatic arrival as the No. 1 overall pick in 2016, the biggest reward (by far) of that last-place season. Matthews’ mere presence on the roster, in that hugely important position, is what largely keeps the team’s contention window theoretically open. Any and all offseason retooling will be in the name of building a team that can again compete for the Stanley Cup in the two remaining years on his contract (and hopefully much longer after that).
William Nylander: Another foundational piece who has another six years left on his contract and who might eventually become the franchise’s all-time leading point getter. (Eighth-ranked at the moment, Nylander is 323 points behind franchise leader, Mats Sundin.) Nylander’s importance to the team only increased when Mitch Marner left for Vegas last summer and he became the lone superstar sidekick next to Matthews. Nylander turns 30 in May, but has shown this season that he remains square in his prime.
Auston Matthews and William Nylander are untouchable for the Leafs. (John E. Sokolowski / Imagn Images)
Almost certainly going nowhere
Easton Cowan: A Cowan trade was conceivable at last year’s deadline. Not anymore. Not with Fraser Minten gone and the prospect pool looking as thin as ever. Cowan may not be a future star, but he has all the tools to be a super helpful top-nine forward. He can’t be sitting again when the Leafs return from the Olympic break. His continued development is essential heading into next season.
Matthew Knies: If the Leafs were to ever decide they simply had to acquire a major upgrade on defence, and could only get that player through trade, Knies would be (currently) their best chip to do so. He won’t turn 24 until October and he has another five years remaining on the contract he signed last summer. Though he’s had a somewhat disappointing season, affected by injury certainly, Knies’ ability, constantly vrooming night-to-night motor, and TBD upside would make him really difficult to part with.
Jake McCabe: Oliver Ekman-Larsson has been the trendy could-they-move-him? piece on the Leafs’ back end. However, the defenceman who would attract the most value in a trade would almost certainly be McCabe. His contract is long (another four years), but friendly in terms of the cap hit ($4.51 million) for the defensive value he offers. Back in 2023, the Leafs parted with picks in the first and second round to acquire him for three playoff runs at the reduced rate of $2 million on the cap. McCabe has become so essential to the team that the prospect of moving him almost feels untenable. McCabe also has a full no-trade clause, making a deal that much more unlikely.
Chris Tanev: The Leafs can only hope he comes back healthy next fall in the third year of his six-year contract. Tanev has left a giant and ultimately unfilled void in the Leafs defence.
John Tavares: Tavares decided he didn’t want to play anywhere else when he chose to sign a below-market four-year contract last summer. It’s hard to imagine that changing anytime soon.
Joseph Woll: If the Leafs decide they must part with one of their goaltenders, Woll would almost certainly boast the most trade value. He’s only 27, he’s proven himself to be a more than competent tandem goaltender when healthy, and his contract still has another two years remaining, at a cap hit of just $3.67 million. He’s attractive to the Leafs for all those same reasons, though, not to mention the fact that he’s four and a half years younger than Anthony Stolarz and far more proven than Dennis Hildeby.
Contractual stuff means they’re likely staying put
Max Domi: Though he’s managed to turn around his season somewhat, Domi remains a thorny puzzle piece in the Leafs’ forward bunch. He almost has to play with Matthews for the insulation the team’s captain offers on both sides of the puck. Consider this: The Leafs have been outscored 24-8 at five-on-five when Domi plays without Matthews this season. Domi’s contract still has two more years remaining, with a cap hit of $3.75 million and a 13-team no-trade list. That, and his complicated skill set, figures to make him difficult (maybe impossible) to move.
Max Domi is a difficult fit in the Leafs lineup, but it’s unlikely he’ll move at the deadline. (Justin Berl / Getty Images)
Dakota Joshua: The bet the Leafs made on Joshua last summer hasn’t paid off for a variety of reasons, including injury. The two years still remaining on his contract, at a cap hit of $3.25 million, makes him another hard piece to move. In hindsight, the Leafs should have insisted on receiving an asset for taking back Joshua’s contract, not sending one out (a fourth-round pick in 2028) instead.
Matias Maccelli: Small and slick and relatively unproven, Maccelli doesn’t profile as the kind of forward playoff teams are likely to covet. His RFA contract, which expires at the end of the season, comes with a $3.4 million cap hit that doesn’t exactly align with his current value. And even if the Leafs were willing to retain some money, is Maccelli — healthy-scratched a bunch in back-to-back seasons and on pace for 37 points — worth the extra asset that would cost? His qualifying offer this summer will cost $4.1 million.
Morgan Rielly: Rielly turns 32 early next month. And while the $7.5 million cap hit on his contract — tied for 31st among all NHL defencemen this season — will become less onerous as the salary cap continues to rise, his apparent decline this season would make him a dicey bet for any team interested in acquiring him via trade. Rielly, crucially, can also veto any and all trades with his no-movement clause. So even if there were a team interested in him before March 6, Rielly would have to give his consent to go there. All of which makes it likely that Rielly remains with the Leafs through the deadline. The two sides can revisit his future in the offseason.
Anthony Stolarz: The $3.75 million cap hit on Stolarz’ next contract, which won’t begin until next season, is palatable. The four-year term, probably less so for a goaltender who just turned 32 and has missed months-long stretches to injury in each of his two seasons as a Leaf (and had similar health problems elsewhere before that). The eight-team no-trade clause on his current deal expands to 16 teams on July 1. Had the Leafs not extended his contract last fall, it seems likely, as things stand now, that the team would have let him walk as a free agent this summer and promoted Hildeby into full-time NHL duty next season instead.
Likeliest to move
Calle Järnkrok: Do rival teams think the 34-year-old has anything left? Järnkrok scored in the first three games of the season, but has three goals and one assist since. He also owns the lowest expected-goals rate among Leafs at just 42 percent. Järnkrok’s expiring contract comes with a cap hit of $2.1 million as well as a 10-team no-trade list. Interested teams might recall that he struggled following a midseason trade to the Calgary Flames in the season before he joined the Leafs. Järnkrok is plenty experienced, though, and might have some value to a playoff team as a 12th or 13th forward.
Scott Laughton: One of the big objectives for Treliving heading into the deadline should be securing, if at all possible, the kind of return for Laughton the Leafs paid at last year’s deadline — above all, a first-round pick or equivalent prospect. Maybe that’s not possible. Fourth-line centres on expiring contracts don’t typically fetch that kind of price. With that said, Laughton is just the kind of gamer that teams (i.e. the Leafs last spring) love having around in the playoffs. He’ll play a disruptive role on the penalty kill, can move around a lineup as needed, and is winning draws at the best rate of his career this season. The Leafs need to ace the Laughton trade somehow and recoup the asset(s) they lost in acquiring him in the first place.
Bobby McMann: This is about as well as a contract year could be going for McMann, an unrestricted free agent at season’s end. The 29-year-old is already knocking on the door of career highs in just about every offensive category and has played on the Leafs’ top line since late December. He might never have more value as a trade chip, either. His expiring contract comes with a teeny-tiny $1.35 million cap hit. McMann has some of the quickest wheels in the league, he can score, and he’s a thick 6-foot-2 and 217 pounds. Lots to like for buyers at the deadline. The only thing that could hurt his value? His playoff performance last spring, when he failed to score in 13 games.
Bobby McMann is having a career season in a number of offensive categories. (Carmen Mandato / Getty Images)
A move would be mildly surprising
Brandon Carlo: The Carlo trade looks disastrous now, but it was defensible at the time. The Leafs were acquiring a defenceman to play in their top four and getting him for two additional seasons at a reduced rate of just $3.485 million on the cap. Even the price — a first-round pick the team figured would be late in the 2026 draft and a prospect of somewhat limited upside (Minten) — would be fine if Carlo lived up to expectation. The Leafs could try to redeem some value by moving Carlo now, with one year still remaining on his deal. How much value is the question. They would be selling Carlo at his lowest value — though big right-shooting defencemen tend to carry a lot. It might be worth seeing whether Carlo can rebound after the Olympic break, when he’s maybe not playing next to Rielly, and re-establish his value as a top-four defenceman heading into next season.
Steven Lorentz: A fourth-liner with two years to go on his contract at $1.35 million, Lorentz is likely more attractive to the Leafs than rival teams.
Nicolas Roy: The Leafs’ return in the Mitch Marner sign-and-trade, Roy still has another year left on his contract at $3 million. It hasn’t gone great for Roy this season, but he’s a centre for a team that figures to trade one centre this spring (Laughton) and isn’t well-stocked there at all for the future.
A move wouldn’t be surprising
Simon Benoit: He has another year left on his contract at $1.35 million and might hold some value to teams as a depth defenceman for two playoff runs.
Oliver Ekman-Larsson: An attractive trade chip for a number of reasons. He’s extremely competitive. He has Stanley Cup experience. He can play on the left and right sides. He can still move the puck and kick in some offence. And his contract still has two more seasons on it, so he’s not just a rental, but help (albeit aging help) for this spring and beyond for a cap hit of $3.5 million. Those are all reasons the Leafs may want to keep him; their willingness to move on probably depends on the quality of the offer. If they can nab a first-round pick, say, the Leafs have to take their winnings and move on.
Oliver Ekman-Larsson would be attractive to a number of contenders, but the Leafs need a good price. (Chris Tanouye / Freestyle Photography / Getty Images)
Philippe Myers: A lesser version of Benoit who could be depth to a playoff team for the rest of this season and next ($850,000 cap hit).
Nick Robertson: A pending RFA this summer, Robertson requested trades from the Leafs previously and wasn’t moved, perhaps because the interest simply wasn’t there. Has anything changed with his value — to the Leafs or the league?
Robertson’s per-game production this season is almost identical to what he produced two seasons ago in fewer minutes:
2023-24: 0.48 points per game
2024-25: 0.32
2025-26: 0.48
His per-game scoring (0.22 goals per game) is exactly the same as last season.
Still, with how long he’s felt like an uncertain part of the Leafs’ future, a trade wouldn’t be the least bit surprising.
Troy Stecher: The Leafs got Stecher for free off waivers from the Oilers. He subsequently came in and proved he still belonged in the NHL and will presumably earn another contract on July 1 (if not sooner) because of it. Turning him into an asset would be a win for the front office.