Are the Phillies really at all deep in their rotation?

I read a lot of baseball writing, either by book or some online article that happens to catch my eye. Sometimes the writing will say something that makes me perk up a bit, particularly when it involves the Phillies. So when I read this article from The Athletic ($), there was a note here that made me pause.

With respect to the Skubal-and-Valdez Tigers, depth matters. And the Phillies, Dodgers, Red Sox (the depthiest of the rotations, imo), Blue Jays and Reds (yes, the Reds) can all make a claim that their rotations, one through five (or in some cases, six) are the best in the game.

Huh. One through five as the best in the game.

It got me thinking about this rotation and whether that claim can be made any longer.

Of course, we need a full season’s worth of recent statistics to talk about it, but with the season not having started yet, it’s just conjecture. It’s one person’s opinion matched up against another’s. Last season can be used for teams that haven’t had a lot of turnover, but as it stands right now, the Phillies will likely have two, maybe three, different members of their initial five that are new compared to 2025.

So comparing the Phillies’ rotation as is to the others around the game before spring training happens seems foolhardy, but another question pops up when looking at that quote, at least to me.

Do the Phillies even have a deep rotation? That’s something that can be debated.

Right now, were the team to have their druthers, the rotation would look like this on Opening Day:

The top two that the team will trot out in the first series are as good as it gets around the league. Even with Sanchez’s 2nd place finish in the Cy Young voting, it still feels like he’s underrated around the game. Luzardo finally capitalized on his immense potential to have a great season in 2025 and will be pitching to hit it big in free agency following this season. It’s as good a start as any to filling out a rotation.

After that, things get murkier. We aren’t really sure what Aaron Nola we are going to get this coming season. One could believe in the even year Nola conspiracy theory, but until it is actually shown in action, one has to wonder if the toll of all the innings he has pitched over the years without missing starts has begun to affect Nola and his health. Walker’s role as end of the rotation pitcher/first choice to get bumped to the bullpen is well documented by this point. If he can give the team even league average production in 4 or 5 inning bursts each outing, that’s a win for the team. What Painter gives the team this year is one of its biggest question marks and one of the reasons for concern. What if Painter has a bad spring and shows he’s still not ready for the major league spotlight? That would obviously go against the team’s plans, but there have to be some contingencies in place in case this actually comes to fruition.

We’ve gotten this far and haven’t even mentioned Zack Wheeler, but with the latest update provided, he won’t be ready for Opening Day.

Which brings us back to the depth that this team has accrued. Is it actually enough? Wheeler’s injury has laid bare the fact that they have not backfilled as much as maybe they should have. Right now, there is Tucker Davidson and Bryse Wilson on the depth chart behind Painter, maybe even Jean Cabrera is you’re feeling generous. Alan Rangel and Yoniel Curet are technically options, but who are we kidding. Are those the kinds of guys the team is going to want to rely on if something were to befall one of their current rotation members?

A lot of this is of their own volition. There hasn’t been much of an effort to add these kinds of starters to their minor league stable, instead having the focus on making sure that the bullpen was full of viable options in case harmful events befall someone. That will mean a lot of breath holding each time one of those five takes their start this spring, be it in Florida or in the World Baseball Classic.

It’s easy to criticize them for not getting players to join them in free agency, but it’s also easy to forget it take two to tango. Players have to be willing to come to Philadelphia and usually, if a player is going to take a minor league (their likely best offer), they’re going to want to see a clear path to being able to pitch. That path isn’t exactly crystal clear with the Phillies. They have had a pretty remarkable string of being able to keep their starters on the field, which means free agents would probably look elsewhere. It is something of a curse, where the Phillies need starters to bide their time in the minor leagues in case of injury, but a lot of times, those injuries never come. So, convincing someone who has veteran status to join the team, likely on a minor league, is always going to be something of a challenge. If there is something to compare the Phillies to the Dodgers, it’s in this fashion. Both rotations are theoretically blocked with pitchers already that getting someone to join them is tough.

However, it would behoove the team to convince someone, be it a veteran or a pitcher with a checkered history, to take a minor league deal during spring training. They have avenues of doing so, financially speaking. Kolby Allard was given a decent chunk of change to spend his time in Lehigh Valley on a minor league deal before he was eventually called up for a few starts in 2024. Giving someone a larger than normal guaranteed amount of money to spend time in the minors is one way to flex that financial muscle we always hear about.

The top part of the starting rotation is good, something on which we can all agree, but there needs a bit more backfill at the end of it. Dombrowski would seem to agree as he acknowledged the team is still chasing down options to help create that depth. It’ll be something to follow as the team heads down to Florida to begin their preparations.

Are the Phillies really at all deep in their rotation?

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