On paper, this week’s ATP 500 event in Rio might turn out to be the weakest ATP 500 event of the year, with no Top 15 players in the draw and #19 Francisco Cerundolo the highest seed. That means it will be a great opportunity for less decorated players to have a great week and perhaps even secure the biggest title of their careers, which should ensure that everyone will be trying their absolute best this week.
ATP Rio de Janeiro Day 1 Predictions
Cristian Garin vs Thiago Agustin Tirante
Head-to-head: first meeting
There’s very little to separate these two players as far as ranking and level of play goes, but Tirante has played far more this year so far and has actually been showing a decent level. That extra match play and wins (Garin is yet to win a match in 2026) might well end up making the difference in a match that should be extremely close and come down to some important points.
Prediction: Tirante in 3
Yannick Hanfmann vs Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva
Head-to-head: Hanfmann 1-0 Reis da Silva
The pair faced each other at this very tournament in 2022, with Hanfmann dropping only two games. Things will likely be much closer this time around, but Hanfmann remains clearly the better player, with Reis da Silva not really having done much significant purpose in the mean time. Under normal circumstances, the German will be the one advancing.
Prediction: Hanfmann in 2
Dusan Lajovic vs Daniel Altmaier
Head-to-head: Altmaier 3-0 Lajovic
While Altmaier is yet to win even a set in 2026 and Lajovic is always potentially dangerous on clay, the German is clearly the better player of the two overall at this point in their careers, and clay is generally his favorite surface too. Given their current forms, this is a difficult match to predict, but Altmaier’s 3-0 head-to-head lead suggests this is a comfortable matchup for him and he might just notch his first win of the year.
Prediction: Altmaier in 3
Main Photo Credit: Mike Frey-USA TODAY Sports