At the end of January, we published our first mock draft database of the season. At the time, 21 of the 25 mocks (84%) were projecting the Cowboys to take a linebacker, with Sonny Styles (17 mocks, 68%) the clear favorite. The second most popular position was cornerback with 15 picks (60%), followed by edge rushers with 11 picks (44%). The early consensus seemed to be LB Sonny Styles with the 12th pick and a CB with the 20th pick, a combo offered by 10 of the 25 mocks or 40% of the time.
But a lot has happened since then: The Super Bowl came and went, this year’s salary cap was announced, the Senior Bowl is behind us, and the Cowboys look to have completed their coaching hires, so it’s again time to turn our attention to the very serious business of mock drafting.
On the hypothesis that the predictive value of multiple mock drafts is greater than that of a single mock, we are taking a survey of 40 different mock drafts today. Importantly, all 40 mocks were published on or after February 1st, giving us a big data set of the latest mock drafts. And here are all those 40 mocks, and which two players they have the Cowboys selecting.
Mock Draft
Player (12th)
Position
College
Player (20th)
Position
College
Last Updated
NFL.com (Parr)
Sonny Styles
LB
Ohio State
Cashius Howell
EDGE
Teaxas A&M
12-Feb
Fox Sports (Rang)
Mansoor Delane
CB
LSU
Gabe Jacas
EDGE
Illinois
12-Feb
NBCSports (Dvorchak)
Keldric Faulk
EDGE
Auburn
Brandon Cisse
CB
South Carolina
11-Feb
CBSSports (Podell)
Mansoor Delane
CB
LSU
Cashius Howell
EDGE
Teaxas A&M
11-Feb
ESPN (Yates)
Sonny Styles
LB
Ohio State
Keldric Faulk
EDGE
Auburn
11-Feb
Draft Countdown (Staff)
Sonny Styles
LB
Ohio State
Monroe Freeling
OT
Georgia
11-Feb
The Big Lead (Risdon)
T.J. Parker
EDGE
Clemson
Caleb Banks
DL
Florida
10-Feb
Clutch Points (Crean)
T.J. Parker
EDGE
Clemson
Kayden MacDonald
DL
Ohio State
10-Feb
CBSSports (Renner)
Jermod McCoy
CB
Tennessee
Blake Miller
OT
Clemson
9-Feb
The Athletic (Baumgardner)
Sonny Styles
LB
Ohio State
Brandon Cisse
CB
South Carolina
9-Feb
Yahoo (Staff)
Sonny Styles
LB
Ohio State
Brandon Cisse
CB
South Carolina
9-Feb
McShay Report (McShay)
Akheem Mesidor
EDGE
Miami (FL)
C.J. Allen
LB
Georgia
9-Feb
Bleacher Report (Sobleski)
Sonny Styles
LB
Ohio State
Cashius Howell
EDGE
Teaxas A&M
9-Feb
Draft Network (Eisner)
Jeremiyah Love
RB
Notre Dame
Cashius Howell
EDGE
Teaxas A&M
9-Feb
Mock Draft
Player (12th)
Position
College
Player (20th)
Position
College
Last Updated
Sharpe Football (McCrystal)
Jordyn Tyson
WR
Arizona State
Cashius Howell
EDGE
Teaxas A&M
9-Feb
CBSSports (Edwards)
Keldric Faulk
EDGE
Auburn
Colton Hood
CB
Tennessee
9-Feb
SI (Morales)
Cashius Howell
EDGE
Teaxas A&M
Colton Hood
CB
Tennessee
9-Feb
NFL.com (Reuter)
Sonny Styles
LB
Ohio State
Emmanuel McNeil-Warren
S
Toledo
9-Feb
USA Today (Middlehurst)
Mansoor Delane
CB
LSU
Emmanuel McNeil-Warren
S
Toledo
9-Feb
Sporting News (Iyer)
Carnell Tate
WR
Ohio State
Kayden MacDonald
DL
Ohio State
9-Feb
CBSSports (Rogers)
Mansoor Delane
CB
LSU
Keldric Faulk
EDGE
Auburn
9-Feb
Fox Sports (Klatt)
Caleb Downs
S
Ohio State
Keldric Faulk
EDGE
Auburn
9-Feb
NBCSports (Rogers)
Mansoor Delane
CB
LSU
Keldric Faulk
EDGE
Auburn
9-Feb
SI (Feinberg)
Jeremiyah Love
RB
Notre Dame
Keldric Faulk
EDGE
Auburn
9-Feb
CBSSports (Brockermeyer)
Jeremiyah Love
RB
Notre Dame
Sonny Styles
LB
Ohio State
9-Feb
CBSSports (Wilson)
Caleb Downs
S
Ohio State
Sonny Styles
LB
Ohio State
9-Feb
SB Nation (Schofield)
Keldric Faulk
EDGE
Auburn
Sonny Styles
LB
Ohio State
9-Feb
Mock Draft
Player (12th)
Position
College
Player (20th)
Position
College
Last Updated
NFL Spin Zone (Debinger)
Sonny Styles
LB
Ohio State
Akheem Mesidor
EDGE
Miami (FL)
8-Feb
PFF (Cummings)
Sonny Styles
LB
Ohio State
Akheem Mesidor
EDGE
Miami (FL)
8-Feb
PFF (Chadwick)
Sonny Styles
LB
Ohio State
Cashius Howell
EDGE
Teaxas A&M
8-Feb
DraftWire (Popejoy)
Sonny Styles
LB
Ohio State
Spencer Fano
OT
Utah
8-Feb
USA Today (Ostly)
Mansoor Delane
CB
LSU
Cashius Howell
EDGE
Teaxas A&M
7-Feb
NFL.com (Frelund)
Sonny Styles
LB
Ohio State
T.J. Parker
EDGE
Clemson
6-Feb
Draft Countdown (Menedez)
Jermod McCoy
CB
Tennessee
Keldric Faulk
EDGE
Auburn
4-Feb
DMN (Hoyt)
Jermod McCoy
CB
Tennessee
C.J. Allen
LB
Georgia
2-Feb
NFL.com (Zierlein)
Caleb Downs
S
Ohio State
Jordyn Tyson
WR
Arizona State
2-Feb
USA Today (Camenker)
Jermod McCoy
CB
Tennessee
Keldric Faulk
EDGE
Auburn
2-Feb
ESPN (Miller)
Sonny Styles
LB
Ohio State
T.J. Parker
EDGE
Clemson
2-Feb
PFF (Sikkema)
Caleb Downs
S
Ohio State
T.J. Parker
EDGE
Clemson
2-Feb
Draft Network (Melo)
Sonny Styles
LB
Ohio State
Mansoor Delane
CB
LSU
1-Feb
That’s a ton of info to digest, with 21 different prospects mocked to the Cowboys somewhere in the first round, so let’s look at a few more digestible extracts from this exercise, starting with how this round of mocks compares to the last one.
Mock Draft distribution by Player Posiition
Position
January
February
Linebacker
84%
48%
Cornerback
60%
40%
EDGE
44%
68%
Safety
4%
15%
Others
8%
32%
Wide Receiver
4%
8%
Running Back
4%
8%
Offensive Tackle
—
8%
Defensive Tackle
—
8%
What we see here is a shift away from linebackers to edge rushers, plus a strong increase in “other positions” that didn’t get much attention in January. Naturally, this produces some “winners and losers” among the players mocked to Dallas:
Mock Draft distribution by Player Posiition
Position
Player
January
February
LB
Sonny Styles
68%
43%
C.J. Allen
8%
5%
Arvell Reese
8%
—
CB
Mansoor Delane
—
18%
Jermod McCoy
—
10%
Colton Hood
20%
5%
Brandon Cisse
12%
8%
Avieon Terrell
28%
—
EDGE
Keldric Faulk
24%
25%
Cashius Howell
4%
20%
T.J. Parker
4%
13%
Akheem Mesidor
12%
8%
Gabe Jacas
—
3%
S
Caleb Downs
4%
10%
Emmanuel McNeil-Warren
—
5%
WR
Jordyn Tyson
—
5%
Carnell Tate
4%
3%
RB
Jeremiyah Love
4%
8%
DL
Kayden MacDonald
—
5%
Caleb Banks
—
3%
OT
Blake Miller
—
3%
Monroe Freeling
—
3%
Spencer Fano
—
3%
Sonny Styles still remains the consensus favorite for the Cowboys, but his lead over other prospects has dropped. At cornerback, the attention in the mock drafts shifted towards the top two guys in this draft class, Mansoor Delane and Jermod McCoy at the expense of the other corners in this class. At edge, the Cowboys are completely out of the Rueben Bain and David Bailey sweepstakes, but Cashius Howell and T.J. Parker are new names popping up in the mocks. Safety is getting some mock interest, but having Caleb Downs dropping all the way to No. 12 seems more like a pipe dream than anything else at the moment. But keep an eye on Emmanuel McNeill-Warren, he’s been getting increasing interest lately. Also, why anybody would have the Cowboys invest their No. 12 pick in a WR, RB, or DT is completely beyond me.
But all of that doesn’t yet tell us too much about how the first round could play out for the Cowboys. For that, I plotted where seven specific players were taken in each of the 50 mocks. Those seven players are:
The top safety, and maybe the best player in the draft, Caleb DownsThe consensus top pick from the 40 mocks, Sonny StylesThe top six edge rushers in the 40 mocksThe top four corners mocked to the Cowboys
Here’s how often each player was taken at which spot in the 50 mocks:
40 Mock Drafts – Summary Results
Pick
Team
Rueben Bain
David Bailey
Caleb Downs
Sonny Styles
Mansoor Delane
Jermod McCoy
Keldric Faulk
Cassius Howell
T.J. Parker
Akheem Mesidor
Colton Hood
Brandon Cisse
Edge
Edge
S
LB
CB
CB
Edge
Edge
Edge
Edge
CB
CB
1
LV
2
NYJ
7
2
2
3
ARI
4
1
1
4
TEN
16
16
1
5
NYG
4
1
2
1
6
CLE
1
1
4
7
WAS
4
11
6
7
1
1
1
8
NO
2
2
1
9
KC
3
2
1
1
1
2
10
CIN
4
15
1
7
2
4
11
MIA
1
2
2
13
16
12
DAL
1
4
14
6
4
3
1
2
1
13
LAR
5
8
3
1
14
BAL
3
4
1
15
TB
8
1
4
7
3
3
1
16
NYJ
1
1
1
3
2
17
DET
1
4
1
5
5
1
18
MIN
1
4
3
3
19
CAR
2
1
2
2
2
2
20
DAL
4
1
7
6
3
2
2
3
20+
1
1
1
10
19
27
26
26
29
This table illustrates how the first round could likely play out for the Cowboys and the prospects they are interested in. One of the top two pass rushers, Bain or Bailey, is headed to Tennessee (#4) with the other one likely going to Washington (#7). Caleb Downs is a top 10 pick, and has a hard stop at Cincinnati (#10), though there is a slim chance he could fall to the Cowboys.
LB Sonny Styles could be a consideration for Washington at #7, but they should happily bite on one of the falling pass rushers, so there’s a 70% (28 of 40 mocks) chance he’ll be available at #12 for the Cowboys. Barring Caleb Downs falling to them (12.5% chance), the Cowboys should have the option of picking between Styles (70%) or cornerbacks Mansoor Delane (37.5%) or Jermod McCoy (50%). Which of the two corners fall depends on what Miami does at #11.
The mocks seem to agree, for now, that pass rusher is the likely pick at #20 for the Cowboys, and depending on which player the Cowboys have their eyes on, they might even consider trading down from the 20th spot if they can find a team interested in moving up.
Overall, that leaves the Cowboys with a lot of options, and if you boil it down to position combinations, here are the most frequent combinations among the 40 mocks:
23%: #12 CB/Safety, #20 Edge20%: #12 LB, #20 Edge10%: #12 LB, #20 CB/Safety5%: #12 Edge, #20 CB5%: #12 Edge, #20 LB
To get a little more clarity on which player could be available for the Cowboys, you can look up the player ranking on your favorite big board, you can make up your own ranking, and you could even use a consensus big board to figure out such a ranking.
Or we could look at the average draft position for each player based on the 40 mocks above, which is exactly what you’ll see in the table below. I included all LBs, CBs, edge rushers and safeties that were mocked to the Cowboys at least once, and added four more players to round things out (LB Arvell Reese, DE Rueben Bain, DE David Bailey, CB Avieon Terrell). To arrive at the average rank, I calculated the average across the 40 mocks, and where a player fell out of the Top 32, I used the 33th spot to calculate the average draft position.
POS
Avg. rank
Player
Available at No. 12
Available at No. 20
LB
2.6
Arvell Reese
—
—
12.4
Sonny Styles
70%
10%
27.1
C.J. Allen
100%
80%
CB
11.5
Mansoor Delane
38%
5%
12.9
Jermod McCoy
50%
3%
25.1
Avieon Terrell
100%
60%
26.3
Colton Hood
100%
70%
27.7
Brandon Cisse
100%
80%
EDGE
5.5
Rueben Bain
3%
3%
6.1
David Bailey
3%
—
18.0
Keldric Faulk
83%
43%
23.1
Cashius Howell
100%
60%
25.9
T.J. Parker
98%
75%
26.1
Akheem Mesidor
100%
70%
32.7
Gabe Jacas
100%
100%
Safety
8.5
Caleb Downs
13%
—
28.7
Emmanuel McNeil-Warren
100%
88%
Within the confines of this 40-mock data set, that gives the Cowboys plenty of options, with the big caveat that it’s still a long way to go to the draft.
What would be your choice right now, based on these 40 mocks and the 21 prospects mocked to the Cowboys?