Back in October, before this NBA season began, did you perhaps open up a sports betting app on your phone and wager on how many wins the Boston Celtics would achieve? Did you say they would win at least 48? Maybe 50? More than 50?
If so, then the odds are good that you’re about to win some money. At the All-Star break, the Celtics rank fifth in the entire league at 35-19 – a winning percentage of .648 that equates to a 53-29 record over a full season. Barring any unfortunate developments, the Celtics should finish in a far better position than almost anyone expected.
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If you saw all that coming, you’re smarter than I am. Last season, I correctly predicted the Celtics would win 61 games, and I’ve been pretty close to the right number in most other recent years. This season, however, I dropped my expectation to 44 wins. That’s because the narratives appeared reasonable: With so much talent lost in the off-season, and with the replacements being primarily young and unproven, there seemed to be no way for Boston to avoid the “gap year” that many NBA observers were forecasting.
There’s no denying it. I was guilty of underestimating the Celtics.
My mistakes didn’t end there. I said Derrick White would make the All-Star team (he didn’t); Jayson Tatum’s absence would be so harmful (it’s been manageable) that his haters would apologize (they haven’t); and the Cs would be more effective if they’d speed up their offense (at 95.7, they’re dead last in pace for the second straight year, yet are second in offensive rating at 120.2).
The Celtics have defied expectations, with Jaylen Brown having his best season. (Photo by Erin Clark/The Boston Globe via Getty Images) | Boston Globe via Getty Images
There’s more. I was sure they’d be pounded on the glass (but in fact, they’re eighth in the league with 45.4 rebounds per game, and seventh in rebound percentage at 51.4%); they’d struggle on defense (nope, their current defensive rating is ninth-best at 112.6); and they’d be especially vulnerable inside (they actually have allowed just 40.9 paint points per game, second best in the league).
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My one consolation was I had plenty of company in being wrong. The most optimistic guess here at CelticsBlog was a 48-win season. Also, in hindsight, we now see numerous mainstream news outlets whose crystal ball apparently wasn’t crystal-clear. Here’s a sampling of wayward prognostications.
Yahoo! Sports, Oct. 7, 2025 – Boston Celtics 2025-26 season preview: Will this be a lottery team without Jayson Tatum?
Over/under win total: 40.5
Not only would it be fine and completely justified for Boston to dip under .500 this season, it would be advisable to do so! I’ll take the under, at the risk of making Mazzulla rage-weep tears of blood and swear an unrelenting vendetta against my family, friends and still-living former teachers.
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ESPN.com, Oct. 20, 2025 – 2025-26 NBA season preview: Rankings, predictions, odds
Chances to make playoffs: 51.8%
Projected wins: 40.1
Biggest thing we’ll be talking about this season: What is the plan for what should be a gap season? The Celtics are a proud bunch, and coach Joe Mazzulla and Co. believe they can be a factor while Jayson Tatum recovers from a torn Achilles. But without Tatum and experienced bigs in the rotation, how competitive can this team be — and what happens if Derrick White and/or Jaylen Brown miss time?
SB Nation, Oct. 16, 2025 — NBA power rankings: 2026 championship chances from No. 30 to No. 1
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16. Boston Celtics (and miss playoffs)
Is Jayson Tatum actually going to play this season after suffering a torn Achilles in the Eastern Conference semifinals? It seems insane to me, but Tatum is already running and dunking, and clearly wants to give it a go. This Boston team sure seems built for a gap year while Tatum rests and recovers if you ask me. This might be one of the worst front courts in the league after Al Horford, Kristaps Porzingis, and Luke Kornet departed in free agency, leaving Neemias Queta, Chris Boucher, Luka Garza, and a lot of question marks. I understand the logic that Jaylen Brown and Derrick White are just too good to fail, and it’s possible Payton Pritchard puts his name in All-Star consideration with a bigger role. Even if Tatum comes back, I don’t think the Celtics have any shot at winning the East, so to me it makes it all moot. Finishing in the lottery and with a crack at another potential young star should be in the Celtics’ best long-term interest, but it’s hard to do that with championship-caliber players like these.
CBSsports.com, Oct. 21, 2026 – NBA season predictions: Expert picks for full standings and 2026 NBA Finals
Note: This site listed picks in chart form with seven participants. The Celtics were ranked as high as sixth in the East and as low as 12th. Two of the writers predicted Boston would miss the playoffs.
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On top of all that, the NBA itself indicated the Celtics would fall a notch or two. Boston didn’t play on the official opening night and was omitted from the Christmas Day schedule for the first time in several years.
When the Celtics began the season losing their first three games, it appeared that the narratives were coming true. Yet today, the Celtics are not scuffling to make the Play-In – they hold second place in the East by one-half game over their nemesis, the New York Knicks. Last May, shortly after the Celtics were eliminated and Tatum was hospitalized, a Knicks fans was talking trash to me on the BlueSky platform. His comment: “Enjoy the rebuild.”
Wonder if he’s looked at the standings lately?
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Putting that fun aside, the Celtics and all Boston fans know too well that fortunes can change in an instant. There’s no guarantee that the Cs continue to win at the same pace. However, there are reasons they’ve overcome expectations.
Everyone on the roster has contributed to wins at some point, including young players who are just now getting their first opportunities to perform. And if a 10-year veteran can have a breakout season, Jaylen Brown is doing just that. Equally important, President of Basketball Operations Brad Stevens, Head Coach Joe Mazzulla, the assistant coaches, and the entire behind-the-scenes staff are brilliant at what they do.
As Jaylen put it recently:
The Celtics have made the playoffs for 11 consecutive years. That’s the longest active streak in the NBA, and it’s about to become 12 straight. Maybe the only mistake I made, that everyone made this season, was not trusting them.
What lies ahead
There are 28 games remaining, divided equally between home and away. Here are some of the storylines that will be most prominent over the final weeks of the season. (I’ll keep predictions to a minimum.)
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40-20 rule:
Conventional NBA wisdom says that a true title contender will win 40 games before losing 20. The Celtics need to win five straight to make that happen. It’s achievable, but unlikely, because their first four games after the All-Star break will be on a Western road trip versus four teams above .500: Golden State Warriors, Los Angeles Lakers, Phoenix Suns and Denver Nuggets. Then they’d have to beat the Brooklyn Nets in their first game back in Boston.
The Denver contest is set up to be a scheduled loss: second night of a back-to-back, last game of the week-long trip, being played in the altitude of the Mile-High City, versus the potent Nuggets (currently 35-20) led by MVP candidate Nikola Jokic. If the Celtics actually do win their next five in a row, we should all get very, very excited.
Schedule:
The Celtics will be tested again by a five-day road trip in March: at Cleveland, San Antonio, and Oklahoma City. After that, 10 of their last 16 will be at home, including four of the last five. Their final road game will be on April 9 at New York, possibly with second-place in the East at stake. The regular season concludes on April 12 with the Orlando Magic visiting Boston.
Incorporating Vucevic:
The acquisition of Nikola Vucevic gives the Celtics an experienced and talented big man who can rebound and stretch the floor. The task now is to get him comfortable with the system and to create an effective tandem with Neemias Queta. Luka Garza will get fewer minutes, but stuff happens. Vooch is the guy the Cs will count on in the postseason.
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Jayson Tatum:
Will Tatum return or not? If he does play, how effective will he be? Those are the questions that will determine if the Celtics are just a feel-good regular-season story, or a real contender with a chance to return to the Finals. There are only five rotation players from the 2024 championship squad still on the roster today, Tatum being one. The Celtics have found ways to win in the regular season without him, but they won’t in the postseason. It’s just that simple.
Assuming Tatum does return, there are two dates that stand out as the best options. On February 27, the Nets visit the Garden, and during the following week there are three more home games. That period would be a solid opportunity for a test run that could incorporate some rest, avoid travel, and gradually build up Tatum’s minutes.
Similarly, March 14 has the Washington Wizards visiting Boston, followed by five of the next six games at home. At that point, 16 games would remain on the schedule, which might or might not be enough time for Tatum to get reacclimated. It’s difficult to imagine him being ready for the postseason if he attempts his comeback any later than that.
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How did your predictions turn out so far? Let us know in the comments.