Earlier this offseason, I used the Player Similarity feature in Statcast to identify potential Hitter Sleepers for 2026 based on last year’s batted ball data. That’s always a bit more fun than picking out the busts, but I will say that my success rate in identifying busts is higher every single year. Perhaps this is unsurprising given attrition and entropy in the universe, but given how optimistic and beady-eyed we are in Spring Training before reality hits our rosters like a sledgehammer, I think it’s important to consider flagging these players as being potentially overvalued at their ADP.
It’s never a perfect system, since there are a ton of factors that the algorithm doesn’t take into account, but I’m using my judgment and experience doing this to identify some of the most glaring examples of names that could derail your dreams of victory. I’m sure at least a few will make me look silly, but I’m hoping using this objective algorithm, which can cut through the helium hype machine, will prevent you from getting stranded on a few of these lost hot air balloons.
James Wood (OF, Washington Nationals) – ADP: 28
Top Comps: Bryan Reynolds, Roman Anthony, Brendan Rodgers, Oneil Cruz
He’s 23, built like a linebacker, and just hit 31 homers. But at a top-25 ADP, I Woodn’t. Now I do recognize that because of the nature of comps, someone high up is more likely to comp to lower players and vice versa, but the fact that he lacks a single comp in the top 50 isn’t great, especially as someone whose bat is the primary driver of his value (as opposed to SBs, like many other elite OF with poor comps I left out). I get why the hype is so high, but this also shows it’s a risky pick here.
The main thing adding volatility to the profile is a 32% K%, which is second percentile in baseball. That’s actually a tad worse than Oneil Cruz, and it’s supported by a fifth-percentile whiff rate. Their issues with this seemed to really snowball in the second half; it’s unclear if he found a counter-adjustment to his exposed weakness. He could still hit 25 homers practically in his sleep with his high contact quality, but his launch angle of 6 degrees also means a portion of his power is slammed into the ground. The projections call for about .250-.260 with 25 HR and 17 SB, but I’d argue that there are multiple outfielders who could provide roughly similar outputs later (Jackson Merrill and Cody Bellinger after pick 50; Seiya Suzuki, George Springer, and Lawrence Butler all after pick 80). But the projections also account for the full season, which started out strong, and not the concerning shape of the season.
One last thing: Wood plays on a team that has no intention to compete in 2026, and the lineup is even thinner than it was last year, with Nathaniel Lowe and Josh Bell gone, and only Daylen Lile to save them. So he may get rested more often to avoid injuries, since it is a higher risk for such massive hitters (like Giancarlo Stanton and early-career Aaron Judge), and the mediocre lineup may put a considerable dent in his run-scoring opportunities compared to other high-end bats on contenders.
Riley Greene (OF, Detroit Tigers) – ADP: 71
Top Comps: Byron Buxton, Rowdy Tellez, Will Benson, Jo Adell
Greene is rather like the Pixar hockey-playing girl protagonist, in that since his debut, he’s flipped his profile inside out. What was supposed to be a balanced five-tool player has pooled all their points into dingers. Is that so bad? Well, I mean, the first comp is good, but the fact that two of these players are post-600 ADP isn’t amazing. Also, the fact that Buxton’s speed, which Similarity ignores, is a big part of his fantasy value and how he can make his relatively extreme approach work.
Riley is rather similar to James Wood as a player with big power despite a concerning 30%+ K% rate, but the downside with him is that if we’re basing it on the past few years, he offers no help in stolen bases, meaning the bat really has to deliver to be worth his 71 ADP. Sure, he’s growing, though at 25, he’s much closer to his peak than Wood, and while it didn’t bother him much this year, he’s still playing half his games in a hostile environment for hitters.
The good news is that the projections see his 2025 strikeout spike as a one-year blip, and all project hitting between .247 and .270 (TheBATX as the pessimist and OOPSY as the optimist) with 25-30 homers and solid run production. But especially with only a handful of SBs, even the best-world outcome is quite similar to what Seiya Suzuki offers 20-30 picks later, and the worst projection is worse than Heliot Ramos, who you can get post-200. And Greene’s shape of his season means he also has to prove that his second-half swoon wasn’t pitchers exploiting a flaw he can’t solve. I doubt he’s a “bust” in the true sense, but rather a steep opportunity cost as a mild-to-moderate disappointment at a time in your draft you could be locking down an elite catcher or closer.
Geraldo Perdomo (SS, Arizona Diamondbacks) – ADP: 75
Top Comps: Caleb Durbin, Nolan Schanuel, Jeff McNeil, Jung Hoo Lee
With these comps at a top-100 ADP, Perdomo may be on the Road to Perdition. It’s probably not so surprising that a Statcast-based comp system wouldn’t like him much due to his lack of raw power, but it has seemed he does find a way to break the algorithm as if he’s the protege of Xander Bogaerts in that regard. And it’s worth noting that this comps system doesn’t see that he actually improved as the year went on, significantly increasing his percentage of pulled and hard-hit fly balls.
That said, there are a lot of reasons the arrows are pointing down, and the question is, is it baked enough into the price? If he did manage even 80% of his 2025 production in 2026, he’s still a solid value… but the projections are expecting a lot worse. Thus, the pupu platter of 10-homer guys like Durbin, Schanuel, McNeil, and Lee. While Perdomo clearly has excellent bat control, it’s going to be a challenge for him to even touch 20 homers again with a terrible seventh-percentile bat speed and 11th-percentile HardHit% (this was actually an improvement on previous years, but still). And while the SB output (27 SB to six CS) was excellent, it’s at least fair to question if he can repeat, given that his 44th-percentile sprint speed, while faster than Josh Naylor and Juan Soto, is still pretty poor, and more importantly, his SB totals in previous seasons being nine, 16, and nine indicates this might be an outlier.
If he ends up hitting .260 with 13 homers and 20 SB, will you be happy taking him at an ADP of 75? I think I’d rather wait 60 picks (4-5 rounds) and get the boring but reliable Dansby Swanson’s 20/20 bat at pick 146, or go for the positionally more valuable Caleb Durbin himself, whose projections are actually quite similar and arguably better (at least for SB) at pick 236. While I’ve gone back and forth on Perdomo, the main point is I actually think Durbin, if his ADP remains after 200, is a screaming value. From now on I’ll call him Geraleb Perdurbin.
Alex Bregman (3B, Chicago Cubs) – ADP: 111
Top Comps: Nick Loftin, Gleyber Torres, Enmanuel Valdez, Carlos Santana
So I’ll admit I nearly didn’t put him here since he is basically the archetype as someone who just breaks Statcast in looking so bad but being so good. But after seeing these comps, I decided to put him here anyway. He doesn’t have speed, so you’re entirely dependent on the bat, and although he didn’t fall off a cliff leaving the Astros and their pulled-fly-ball-friendly Crawford Boxes, Fenway was among the cushiest landing spots he could’ve found. Now in North Chicago with the cold spring months, I think it’s time to doubt if he can pull the rabbit out of the hat again.
While he always gives himself more chances with his high contact rate and high walk rate, there are some signs he’s in a slow decline. For one, as a hitter without big exit velocities, he needs to avoid groundballs, and his groundball rate has slowly risen for three straight years, from 34% in 2022 up to 39% in 2025. In addition, his passivity, combined with a declining K rate, gave him a 27% CSW%: the highest mark of his career. One positive is that he did bump up his HardHit% (44%) and overall exit velocity (90 mph), which are actually the best of his career, but it didn’t lead to a higher barrel rate.
In the end, I’m fully aware I might just be cherry-picking the data to see what I want to see, since I have just been out on Bregman over his career, and have been wrong a lot. But I think it’s worth noting that while he is seen as a batting average stabilizer, most of his projections are for a low .250s batting average, with only Steamer projecting .260, with ZIPS projecting .240 and OOPSY at .249, and all have him at under 25 homers. That seems quite similar to the projection for Kazuma Okamoto, who is going about 118 picks later (ADP: 239).
Andy Pages (OF, Los Angeles Dodgers) – ADP: 125
Top Comps: Nick Castellanos, Royce Lewis, Kyle Higashioka, Paul Goldschmidt
Shame, if only his name was pronounced as it’s spelled, he could go quite well with Trevor Story… and Munetaka Murakami. Player Similarity doesn’t take playoff statistics into account, so he actually appears to be a value based on his numbers at a relatively depressed ADP of 125, since his season numbers are arguably just as good as James Wood or Riley Greene, who go well ahead of him. Not shabby for a 25-year-old. So why are his comps including a backup catcher, a player nearing retirement, and a guy who was so bad the team doesn’t want to start him (but also can’t unload him)?
Well, unlike the two other outfielders, his bat doesn’t do anything particularly well. He overperformed his more solid but underwhelming Statcast metrics with a .258 xBA and .428 xSLG (.461 actual SLG%). Sure, that can seem suspect given his prospect pedigree, but while he has above-average bat speed, his HardHit% clocked in at only 24th percentile.
Noelvi Marte (3B, Cincinnati Reds) – ADP: 139
Top Comps: J.T. Realmuto, Dane Myers, Austin Hays, Ceddanne Rafaela, Eli White
When I get to be the judge, it’s gonna be a Noelvi from me, dawg. The good news is that he’s 24 years old and plays in a pitcher-friendly park, and we’ve seen other players with cringy statcast pages work the magic with the small ballpark (Spencer Steer and Jeimer Candelario come to mind). And hey, his first comp isn’t so bad, at least until you remember that he’s a catcher and, despite the name value, had a pretty poor season on a per-PA basis. But Noelvi is clearly talented, so why the hate?
Well, for one, although it certainly can improve, one look at his Statcast sliders paints a very bleak picture. Although his MaxEV of 117 mph is elite, his average bat speed and barrel rate are merely average, and literally everything else is poor to bad. Both his HardHit% and SweetSpot% are 20th percentile, as is his K% rate, and his walk rate is a hideous third percentile. That gives him a very low floor, even if his 89th-percentile sprint speed can compensate somewhat. Hays is an interesting comp as he did manage a good partial season with the Reds despite clearly being a mediocre hitter. I don’t think his ADP factors in enough that after the Eugenio Suárez signing, his hold on the 3B job is tenuous, as a strong performance by backup-slated Steer could lead to Suárez stealing 3B reps. He could still hit .260 20/15 if he improves, but projections see him more as a .250 15/15 guy with 125 or fewer games, but realize there’s also a low floor below this. I’d much rather wait for Chapman another few rounds (ADP: 157), where you lose a few SB and points on average, but gain expected runs produced and homers to make up for it.
Lawrence Butler (OF, Athletics) – ADP: 142
Top Comps: Jordan Beck, Tim Tawa, Harrison Bader, Nolan Jones, Jake Rogers
If you prefer passing on the early 20/2o outfielders to get the discount on Butler, you may end up feeling like a dumbwaiter. Butler had a very disappointing third season (second full season) in the bigs after lots of preseason hype, but unlike many other hitters, it’s hard to find a clear excuse. It doesn’t seem like he was playing through a serious injury, his expected stats don’t indicate he deserved better (even in a much friendlier home park), and both his strikeout rate, groundball rate, and PullAir% all went from average to bad. Sure, the Beck comp doesn’t seem so bad, but it’s still someone who goes way after him in ADP, and also… Coors. Speaking of which, the Nolan Jones comp feels like a personal attack.
He’s still only 25, so he certainly could make an adjustment, just as he did in the second half of 2024, which set off a monumental run. But I’m starting to worry that was more of a Trevor Plouffe-esque once-in-a-career hot streak, given he never seemed to figure things out last year. While his bat speed is still well above average, he wasn’t making good contact, with only a league-average HardHit% and a terrible 22% Pulled GB% that was double his poor 11% PullAir%. He’s already slated by Roster Resource to be in a platoon, and that just further limits his ability to volume his way into production, and generally, the OF pool doesn’t turn into platoon players until after pick 200.
You can hope for positive regression, but I’d argue that’s basically wishcasting based just on his age and home ballpark. I’d much rather wait on a power/speed option with higher upside in Brenton Doyle (ADP: 158) or the more boring but safe bat even later in Jordan Beck (ADP: 234), with the higher-upside platoon version who Statcast loves in Mickey Moniak (ADP: 244). So I’d stay away, and if you want to just bet on Sacramento’s park, then wait 200 picks and then go take Jeff McNeil (ADP: 363). Sure, he lacks the raw power, but at least he hits lots of pulled fly balls!
Adley Rutschman (C, Baltimore Orioles) – ADP: 143
Top Comps: Jurickson Profar, Justin Turner, Max Schuemann, Christian Vázquez, Adam Frazier
Is this the curse of Matt Wieters all over again? We all know last year was a rough year for him, but I decided to include Adley because I had seen him as a value based on other peripherals, such as xBA and xSLG, and his optimistic projections. So color me surprised to see comps to mostly fringe major leaguers.
While he still has the pedigree as a former first overall pick, he’s not a youngster anymore at 28 years of age. And while his HardHit% and K/BB haven’t deteriorated, they also haven’t improved, with an oddly consistent but also quite mediocre 5% Barrel/PA every year of his career. His bat speed is poor and under the 25th percentile for 3 years now, so he basically relies on the plate discipline to volume his way into production, much like a Geraldo Perdomo without any speed. While he’s slated in as the regular catcher, it’s worth noting that his defensive ratings have slipped with every passing year, so while he’s still a bit above average, further degradation could lead to Samuel Basallo stealing some of his catcher at-bats, provided he hits this time around.
I’ve still drafted Rutschman here and there when his ADP slips past 150, which is the first time I’ve been willing to take him in the past few years since I felt he was overhyped when going in the top 70 picks, and now offers value, since I do think if he’s healthy (big if) he should be closer to the 2024 version than the 2025 version. But if you’re expecting him to be a true star breakout pick, you’ll probably be disappointed, and in that case, I’d roll the dice on Francisco Alvarez (ADP: 175) a round or two later.