Bill Guerin has already staked his reputation on Vincent Trocheck once this season. Along with New York Rangers teammate J.T. Miller, Trocheck is one of the two Team USA players people point to and go, “Him?” Compared to multiple-time 40-goal-scorer Jason Robertson and up-and-coming superstar Cole Caufield, Trocheck’s 12 goals and 34 points pale in comparison.

Especially since there are no “Him?”s on Team Canada. Their fourth line of Brandon Hagel, Sam Reinhart, and Brad Marchand has combined for 79 goals. There’s a feeling that Canada landed its hardest punch, while Guerin left offense on the table to bring in Trocheck.

How fair is that? The results over the next two games will decide that. What’s more interesting is whether Guerin will double down on Trocheck with the Minnesota Wild. Trocheck is available from the fire-selling Rangers, and the Wild need a center. There aren’t many dots to connect here.

It’s also harder to think of a better environment for a player than what Guerin has with Trocheck. Even though Trocheck is a fourth-line center with Team USA — and not in the top-six role he’d surely step into in Minnesota — these games are as high stakes as any. Especially for Trocheck, for whom the Olympics also represent an audition for maybe the best situation he could land in.

Other teams could trade for Trocheck. Or, at least, the one team that’s definitively better than Minnesota: the Colorado Avalanche. But few spots offer him what the Wild are most likely to put him in. Assuming Minnesota wants to keep its combination of Matt Boldy and Joel Eriksson Ek together, Trocheck will be Kirill Kaprizov‘s personal center. Ask Ryan Hartman or Victor Rask what that can do for you.

Trocheck’s attributes could also create other opportunities. The Wild have long looked for a right-shot center who could set up Kaprizov, Boldy, and even Quinn Hughes on easy one-timers. They are also looking for a truly dominant faceoff player on the man advantage. Trocheck fits that bill, with a 56.5% faceoff percentage in all situations, which rises to a whopping 68.0% on the power play. That could be enough to displace Mats Zuccarello or Eriksson Ek on the Wild’s top unit.

That is, if Trocheck can sell Guerin on him being the right player to target during these Olympics.

Guerin undoubtedly has esteem for Trocheck’s play, dating back before these Olympics. The Wild and USA GM made the same bet last year in the 4 Nations Face-Off. But is swinging on Trocheck worth passing on a younger, more productive center in Robert Thomas? Or potentially forgoing opportunities down the road, like if Auston Matthews (who, we can’t help but notice, has pretty nice chemistry with Boldy) gets fed up with the Toronto Maple Leafs?

While Trocheck was held off the scoresheet in the 4 Nations tournament, he’s shown up in Milan. Granted, they’re two assists in four games, with them coming against Latvia and Denmark. However, Denmark made the US break a bit of a sweat. According to data collected by Dimitri Filipovic, Trocheck has had two scoring chances and assisted on two others. The combined four contributions are the least among America’s 11 forwards who have played each day.

That’s not super encouraging, except we have to consider Trocheck’s role. He’s not there to be Matthews or Jack Eichel. He’s not getting power-play time. Trocheck is there to make up a tough fourth line that can drive play in the 9 minutes and 6 seconds (on average) he spends on the ice. The good news for Trocheck is that he’s doing just that.

Through the preliminary rounds, Team USA controlled 78% of the expected goals share at even-strength when Trocheck was on the ice, according to InStat. Outclassing teams like Latvia, Denmark, and Germany is expected, and no one on the US had a sub-50% xG share against those teams. Still, relative to his team, Trocheck shone. Among US forwards, only Matthews, Eichel, and Tkachuk controlled play at a higher level than Trocheck. 

Trocheck has done his job in the faceoff circle, winning 24 of 35 draws (68.6%) while getting scored on just twice. The shakiest thing about that last bit is that one of those goals came with the US trying to defend a one-goal lead against Sweden with 91 seconds to go. Lucas Raymond made the cross-ice feed to Mika Zibanejad with Trocheck defending him.

Given that these are the situations, Trocheck — as well as Miller and Brock Nelson, who were also on the ice — was brought to Milan, it needs to be noted that it didn’t work out here.

It still feels unlikely that Guerin will hold that goal, or the relative lack of offense, against Trocheck when deciding whether or not to make a trade for him. The Olympics are a best-on-best tournament, and sometimes a star like Raymond is going to get the better of a good player like Trocheck. Playing a fourth-line role for nine minutes in this kind of tournament just isn’t going to compare to playing on a line with Kaprizov in a playoff pool where talent is much more diffused.

Can Trocheck sell himself to Guerin now? A big moment might be a feather in the cap for a case to trade for him. Still, making the Olympic team is a battle Trocheck has already won. It’s clear that Guerin thinks Trocheck is a gamer and that he has a lot of confidence in his abilities. It’s tough to see how he can lose that trust, short of a disastrous semi-final and medal game.

If Minnesota doesn’t pull the trigger on Trocheck, it’s because either the Rangers want a King Henrik’s ransom for him, or a bigger fish is out there. It probably will have little to do with what we’re seeing now.

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