It’s over. The Toronto Maple Leafs are not making the playoffs and it’s finally time to sell.
Well, it’s finally time for an improvident front office that didn’t see the signs early in the season (or last season, for that matter) and failed to react when the odds were stacked against them. Toronto’s playoff chances fell below 50 percent Nov. 11 and never meaningfully recovered. In the nearly four months since, the Leafs have done nothing to change that.
That it took this long to react to what’s been obvious for months is yet another blight on management that makes it difficult to atone for the last one: trading a pick with only top-five protection for a third-pair defender. With the Leafs’ direction finally decided for them, is it too late to make up ground in the lottery race?
Toronto entered Saturday’s game eight points back of Boston — but also nine points ahead of fifth-last in the league. As difficult as it would be to sneak into the playoffs, the Leafs find themselves in just as difficult a position to sneak into the league’s bottom five with only 22 games remaining. Their chances of making the playoffs are currently right in line with their chances of nabbing a top-five pick: 7 to 8 percent.
In what’s already a lost season, the likelihood of giving up a top-10 pick to a rival makes things only more bleak. Being bad is supposed to come with some reward for the future; not even getting that makes the season sting even more. To some extent, that’s already a sunk cost, but being proactive in either direction could’ve mitigated that.
With 22 games left, the odds are completely stacked against the Leafs falling to the bottom five — even with a sell-off. Trading Bobby McMann, Scott Laughton and Oliver Ekman-Larsson only increases the team’s chances of a top-five pick by 3 percentage points. Worse, it potentially cements their chances of giving up a top-10 pick to Boston, with the odds of that jumping from 28 percent to 37 percent. The worse Toronto gets, the more Boston benefits.
Sure, that may be overselling the ability of a team that looks as if it has quit on its coach, a now essential cog in Toronto’s losing goals. But the problem is the three likely players being traded don’t move the needle enough to be bottom-five bad. And that’s while ignoring the fact the teams below Toronto will also be selling.
It’s not just the lack of needle movers being moved, it’s the lack of time to move down. To catch the other bottom-five teams, the Leafs have to be significantly worse than them. Some have suggested shutting down the team’s best players who have been less than 100 percent all year, but we’re now at a point where even that alone probably isn’t enough.
Shutting Matthew Knies down for the rest of the season boosts Toronto’s top-five pick chances to 13 percent. Shutting William Nylander down as well gets them to 19 percent. Add Auston Matthews to that list and it helps a lot, but it’s still not enough to make it a likelihood (Toronto’s top-five pick odds would still be only 34 percent). All the while, the likelihood of a high pick going to Boston becomes only stronger (54 percent in that final scenario).
The issue is that the bottom-five cutoff currently projects to be around 75 points and the Leafs already have 63. The Leafs would be the league’s worst team without all those players in the lineup and expected to play at an abhorrent 61-point pace, but that would still leave them with 79 points, good for sixth-last. Even being the fifth-worst team wouldn’t be hunky-dory due to the likelihood of dropping to sixth or seventh (58 percent) being higher than picking in the top three or fifth. And we all know that 58 percent undersells an extremely Leafy scenario.
All of that leaves the Leafs in no-man’s-land, the worst spot for a non-playoff team, made even uglier by the increasing likelihood that the Leafs will be giving up a premium pick to Boston.
With proper foresight, planning, vision and execution — all things this management team lacks — it’s something that this franchise had every opportunity to avoid all season. The front office decided to sit on its hands instead, allowing a poorly built ship to steer itself to its deserved conclusion. In all likelihood, it’s too late to salvage this season’s wreckage.
That leads to one inevitable conclusion: Restock the cupboards for a retool with an eye toward next year’s playoffs. Considering it’ll be the same crew charting that course, don’t hold your breath that they’ll be able to avoid the same self-inflicted wreckage next season either.
Stock watch
The biggest changes in projected value over the last 10 games.
Risers
Max Domi
Net Rating: up 1.2
Having Domi on the top line is far from ideal for the Leafs. He’s still a defensive liability who struggles against top competition, and that hasn’t changed the longer he’s stayed there. But to Domi’s credit, he has mostly delivered offensively. Over the last 10 games, he has eight points, and since Jan. 1, he has 14 points in 20 games. That’s a 57-point pace.
That trend has pushed his Offensive Rating up to an above-average level, but that still makes him a difficult fit given his below-average Defensive Rating. The question about whether he can drive his own line also remains unanswered. For now, we can just give Domi kudos for looking decent next to Matthews over the last little bit.
Things are finally starting to look up for Brandon Carlo. (Bob Frid / Imagn Images)
Brandon Carlo
Net Rating: up 1.0
When the Leafs traded for Carlo, fans were sold on him being a top-four solution on the right side despite Carlo being at least a year removed from playing at that level. Carlo had a strong start in Toronto but struggled in the playoffs and looked incredibly off to start the 2025-26 season. Things are finally starting to look up for him, though, as he’s looked a lot better since returning from injury. Since Jan. 6, Carlo has a 49 percent xG rate and 47.5 percent of the goals — both sadly near the team leads on the blue line.
Carlo has done what’s asked of him defensively, and his Defensive Rating is now back up to average. While he’s still rated as a No. 5 defender, that’s a step up from where he was trending early in the season. If he can continue playing like this, he may be a part of the solution next season.
Fallers
Goaltending
Net Rating: down 1.8
Goaltending was a big reason the Leafs were a contender last season, and that’s unfortunately not something they’ve been able to repeat this year. Anthony Stolarz’s game has regressed heavily, while Joseph Woll is on a bit of a cold streak. Over the last 10 games, the duo has been well below average in terms of GSAx, Stolarz especially.
Going into the season, the Leafs were projected to have top-five goaltending, even after forecasting some healthy regression. Instead, they’ve been 22nd on the season. That’s been a major part of the team’s issues, and the Woll-Stolarz tandem now projects to rank No. 10 in the league. Good, but nowhere near good enough to salvage the rest.
Troy Stecher
Net Rating: down 1.0
Stecher was a fantastic story in the immediate aftermath of his waiver claim, but for the second 10-game segment in a row, we’re starting to see why he was on waivers in the first place. Stecher was one of two Leafs defenders who failed to out-chance his opponents over the last 10, and he was badly outscored as well. Stecher’s 3.34 xGA/60 and 4.23 GA/60 were both among the worst marks on the team.
Stecher still grades out better than when the Leafs claimed him, but he’s back to looking like a regular third-pair defender rather than a potential top-four solution. Sorry, no Gustav Forsling here.
Stars and scrubs
The top and bottom three Leafs over the last 10 games, relative to expectations.
Stars
William Nylander
Net Rating: +1.0
Not a single regular Leaf outscored his opponents at five-on-five over the last 10 games, so give credit to Nylander and his almighty 46 percent. Nylander may have only scored one goal in five games, but he was above a point per game and had the team’s strongest xG rate. Even amid injury issues, he’s delivered.
Brandon Carlo
Net Rating: +0.3
Shoutout to Carlo, one of the few players who didn’t get absolutely torched at five-on-five. That’s especially impressive considering he took on the toughest minutes against a difficult schedule. For once, he looked top-four calibre — can he sustain that level?
Matias Maccelli
Net Rating: +0.2
It’s still mystifying to recall that Craig Berube willingly didn’t play Maccelli for a month. Maccelli was once again one of the better Leafs over the last 10 with some strong possession numbers on the second line. For the year, he now leads the Leafs in xG percentage and is producing 1.82 points per 60, a solid rate. With little left to play for, it would be nice to see him get another spin on the top line with Auston Matthews.
Scrubs
Simon Benoit
Net Rating: -2.3
Sometimes I wonder what this team could’ve accomplished if it hadn’t continued to insist that Benoit was an everyday NHLer. Over the last 10 games, he was outscored 6-1 while posting a dismal 34 percent xG rate. For the season, Benoit has a minus-7.2 Net Rating, the 16th-worst mark in the league.
Nicholas Robertson
Net Rating: -1.8
I want to believe in Robertson as much as his biggest backers, but his defensive game continues to be spotty. It’s the biggest thing holding him back from the top six. Over the last 10 games, he had a team-worst 3.43 xGA/60 despite playing the softest minutes on the team.
Nicolas Roy
Net Rating: -1.8
After some solid stretches, the third line was simply not working over the last little bit. Roy got outscored badly and has been mostly invisible.
Quick questions
A look at where the Leafs are and where they’re going.
Are the Leafs better than they were 10 games ago?
Change in Offensive Rating: -7.0
Change in Defensive Rating: -1.6
Change in Net Rating: -8.6
Despite top-five special teams and a 50 percent xG rate, the Leafs went 3-6-0 over the last nine games. A near league-worst 33 percent goal rate at five-on-five was the primary cause for that.
Toronto’s sputtering offense was the big issue here as the Leafs went through an unfortunately timed spell of regression. Toronto’s five-on-five goal rate of 2.66 for the season has now fallen in line with its expected goal rate of 2.58.
Where do the Leafs stand in the Atlantic?
Chances of making the playoffs: 7.9 percent
Chances of finishing last in the division: 54.5 percent
Most likely landing spot: 8th
With the top four cruising, the Bruins continuing their winning ways and likely strong finishes from Ottawa and Florida, the Leafs are now the odds-on favorite to finish at the bottom of the Atlantic. Mission accomplished!
Are the Leafs a lottery contender?
Chances of 75 points or fewer: 0.6 percent
Chances of picking in the top five: 6.9 percent
League-wide ranking: 18th in Net Rating, 21st in projected points
No, not unless they make the trades they need to and a lot of things go really bad for them over the next month and a half.
— Data via Evolving Hockey, Natural Stat Trick, and Hockey Stat Cards