The ATP Masters 1000 Indian Wells 1/64 finals feature several tight matchups that look closer than the odds suggest. Struff vs Bergs, Fucsovics vs O’Connell, and Berrettini vs Mannarino all have strong value angles. With the bookies calling them even, we’re backing experience and head-to-head edges to make the difference in California.

ATP Masters 1000 Indian Wells 1/64-Finals

Bergs – Struff: 04.03.2026 21:30 CEST
H2H: 0-1

Zizou Bergs has lost four of his last five matches. Last week in Dubai, Bergs lost in the opening round against Brooksby in straight sets. Last season at the Indian Wells, Bergs lost to Popyrin in the second round in straight sets.

Jan-Lennard Struff has lost three of his last five matches. Last week in Dubai, Struff lost to Bublik in the opening round in straight sets. He has never made it past the fourth round here. Last season at the Indian Wells, the German lost to Monfils in the opening round in straight sets.

Best Bet to Make

According to the bookies, this will be a 50-50 matchup, but we disagree. Struff is more experienced at the Masters 1000 level, and we believe his experience will prevail in this matchup.

That being said, Struff winning is a value bet.

Value bet/ the best odds: Jan-Lennard Struff winning @2.00 @bet365

Fucsovics – O´Connell: 04.03.2026 23:00 CEST
H2H: 1-0

Marton Fucsovics has lost three of his last five matches. The last match he played was in Doha, where he lost to Khachanov in the second round. He has never made it past the fourth round here.

Christopher O’Connell has won three of his last five matches. This week at the Indian Wells tournament, the Australian qualified for the main draw by winning both matches in straight sets. In the final qualifying round, O´Connell defeated Basilashvili, whilst not offering any breakpoints.

Best Bet to Make

According to the bookies, this will be a 50-50 matchup, but we disagree. Fucsovics enjoys playing at the highest level. Last season in Bucharest, Fucsovics demolished O’Connell in straight sets. On the other hand, O´Connell spent most of his career at the Challenger Tour level.

That being said, Fucsovics winning is a value bet.

Value bet/ the best odds: Marton Fucsovics winning @1.73 @bet365

Berrettini – Mannarino: 04.03.2026 23:30 CEST
H2H: 0-2

Matteo Berrettini has lost three of his last five matches. Last week in Santiago, Berrettini lost to Nava in the opening match in straight sets. Last season at the Indian Wells, the Italian lost to Tsitsipas in the third round in straight sets.

Adrian Mannarino has lost three of his last five matches. Last week in Acapulco, Mannarino lost to Shimabukuro in the opening round in straight sets. Last season, the Frenchman lost to Tu in the qualifying tournament.

Best Bet to Make

According to the bookies, Mannarino is the underdog in this matchup, but we disagree. Mannarino leads 2-0 in head-to-head meetings against Berrettini, without losing a set. We expect him to dominate on his backhand side and keep this match close.

That being said, Mannarino covering the games handicap is a value bet.

Value bet/ the best odds: Adrian Mannarino +3.5 games handicap @1.73 @bet365

Main Photo Credit: Mike Frey-USA TODAY Sports