ROANOKE, Va. (WDBJ) – Caroline Jarrell moved her family of six to Roanoke two years ago, drawn by what she described as a financial cushion. That cushion, she said, has since eroded.
“We moved here to this area because we had such a cushion, if you will,” Jarrell said. “And that cushion has quickly diminished to, now we’re much tighter and much more budgeted. And there’s always the thought of, if it keeps going up, where does that — you know, are we going to be in a problem area?”
Jarrell, who has five children… a five-year-old, three-year-old, and one-year-old triplets… said the pressure is showing up in her monthly bills and at the grocery store. “My family’s grocery bill has increased by almost $150 a week,” she said.
Last month, the inflation rate dropped to 2.4 percent year over year. That decline in the rate has not translated for some Roanoke residents into relief at the grocery store or in monthly bills.
A survey by payroll company ADP found Virginia’s wage growth is 3.9 percent since last year. That’s ranked last compared to other states and the District of Columbia.
Bureau of Labor Statistics nationwide averages show grocery prices have climbed from 2025 to 2026. Chicken breast is listed at $2.06 to $3 at Market at Melrose. Ground beef has risen from $5.85 to $5.89.
Virginia Tech economist David Bieri said Virginia’s average wage growth may offer some relief, but has not fully closed the gap with rising costs.
“In this moderately inflationary environment, that’s not bad,” said Bieri. “We want to make sure that, in order for wages to go up in real terms, wage growth has to outpace inflation. And we’re not quite there yet. Because there are a number of household items where, for whatever reason, not necessarily inflation exclusively, things are growing faster than that 3.9%.”
Bieri said the Federal Reserve has brought inflation down from the near-double-digit rates seen two years ago. “The big worry was that, two years ago, at nearly double-digit growth rates for inflation, wages were never going to catch up,” he said. “Now the Fed has got inflation under control again. Wages seem to be growing at least roughly around the same rate as inflation.”
Bieri is considering the possibility that this almost parallel growth of inflation and wages could be short-lived, citing the ongoing conflict in Iran and its potential effect on energy markets.
“We now have Iran and international dislocations in energy markets,” Bieri said. “And that means the gap might get bigger again. With gasoline at $3.50 soon, that will add to inflation.”
Jarrell said her family is managing for now but is aware the situation could change.
“Right now, it’s just about budgeting,” Jarrell said. “I don’t think we’re willing to go to that mindset right now. But we recognize it’s a real reality for a lot of families. And it could be our reality one day. And that would be really scary.”
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