Day 5 at the ATP Masters 1000 event in Indian Wells will feature all the round three matches from the bottom half of the draw, with some very exciting matches in prospect, including a rematch of the recent Acapulco final. It should be another exciting day of tennis in the California desert as we head into the deciding stages of the tournament.

ATP Indian Wells Day 5 Predictions
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Jakub Mensik

Head-to-head: Davidovich Fokina 4-1 Mensik

Davidovich Fokina has dominated this matchup, with four consecutive wins, including three in 2025 (one of them from 0-2 down at the Australian Open), but Mensik has been rising fast and definitely looks improved from last year. Davidovich Fokina could definitely get a fifth consecutive victory here, but it feels like this is a perfect opportunity for Mensik to make a strong run and close in on the top 10.
Prediction: Mensik in 3

Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe

Head-to-head: Tiafoe 2-1 Cobolli

In his first match, Cobolli got another win over his Acapulco semifinal opponent in Miomir Kecmanovic, and now he faces the player he beat to secure that title in Frances Tiafoe. The American will certainly be eager for revenge, he has been playing well lately and the home court advantage might well tilt things in his favour here, even if it should be a very close match decided by small details, just like Acapulco.
Prediction: Tiafoe in 3

Alexander Zverev vs Brandon Nakashima

Head-to-head: Zverev 5-0 Nakashima

Zverev has been a Top 5 level player for almost a decade now and he shows no signs of slowing down. Indian Wells is his worst Masters 1000 event, the only one where he is yet to reach a semifinal, and he will be looking to at least change that this year. Even if the conditions aren’t to his liking, he has thoroughly dominated his matchup with Nakashima so far and should be able to prevail yet again here.
Prediction: Zverev in 2

João Fonseca vs Tommy Paul

Head-to-head: Paul 1-0 Fonseca

Fonseca has finally got a few good wins here in California after a rough start to the season, and he now faces Tommy Paul in what should be a spectacular match. Paul has been playing well lately and his consistency off the ground will definitely cause issues to Fonseca, who has more firepower but not quite the consistency. Paul is a former semifinalist at this event, plays well in these conditons and might still have a bit of an edge in this matchup at this point in their respective careers.
Prediction: Paul in 3

Main Photo Credit: Aaron Doster-Imagn Images