US stock futures tumbled but trimmed some losses early Monday on hopes for an easing in the oil supply squeeze, after crude prices surged past the $100-a-barrel mark amid fears of a prolonged Middle East conflict.
Dow Jones Industrial Average futures (YM=F) were down 1.2% after plunging more than 1,000 points overnight. Contracts on the S&P 500 (ES=F) and the Nasdaq 100 (NQ=F) sank 1% and 1.1%, respectively. All three indexes had tanked more than 2% in earlier out-of-hours trading.
Oil prices were coming off earlier highs after spiking around 25% late Sunday to top $119 a barrel, reaching levels not seen since 2022. The spike came as conflict in Iran spurred crude-producing countries to cut output, already curbed by the virtual closure of the Strait of Hormuz shipping corridor. Kuwait confirmed unspecified production cuts, while Iraqi output is reported to have plunged about 70%.
Amid the supply crunch, ministers from the G7 top economies will meet on Monday to discuss a possible joint release of petroleum from IEA reserves, per media reports. The US and two other countries are said to back the move, which appears to have soothed nerves rattled on Sunday by Trump suggesting high costs were “a very small price to pay” for security.
West Texas Intermediate (CL=F) crude futures were trading at around $103 a barrel, while global benchmark Brent (BZ=F) futures changed hands above $107. Both were about 15% higher.
The sell-off in stocks followed a bruising stretch last week, which saw the Dow (^DJI) lose roughly 3%, marking its steepest weekly drop since tariff concerns from the Trump administration rattled markets in April 2025. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) slid about 2%, while the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) finished down over 1%.
Looking to domestic economic reports, investors will be watching closely for Wednesday’s Consumer Price Index and Friday’s Personal Consumption Expenditures index readings, though both won’t capture the effect of oil’s dramatic recent surge on price pressures just yet.
On the corporate front, earnings season continues, with Oracle (ORCL) and Adobe (ADBE) the highlights this week.
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Oil volatility index hits pandemic panic levels
Overnight, WTI crude (CL=F) and Brent crude (BZ=F) briefly surged to within a hair of $120 a barrel — the highest level for both since mid-2022, in the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. They’ve since pulled back to around $100, but they’re still on pace for huge monthly gains with more than three full trading weeks left in March.
WTI is up more than 50% this month, a move not seen since April 2020, when oil was rebounding from negative prices. That’s also the last time the oil VIX (^OVX), calculated from USO options, traded at a higher level and above 100. Unlike the stocks VIX (^VIX), which typically rises when stocks fall, commodity volatility gauges — gold included — often climb alongside the underlying price.
Brent, meanwhile, is up more than 40% on the month, which would mark its biggest monthly gain in data going back to late 2007.
My first line in the sand was $8, which cracked on Friday. Now the key question is whether crude can hold above $100, which truly changes every playbook around the world.
Hims & Hers shares soar after news of deal that Novo Nordisk will distribute drugs on Hims platform
Shares in Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) soared Monday morning, picking up more than 50% in premarket trading after reports that a longstanding feud with Novo Nordisk (NVO) has ended and that the drugmaker agreed to distribute its products through the Hims platform.
Novo Nordisk shares gained 1%.
Hims and Novo Nordisk could announce a formal partnership as soon as Monday, according to Bloomberg, which broke the news. The reported deal comes after Novo Nordisk sued Hims in February, accusing the platform of distributing copycat versions of its Wegovy weight-loss pill and violating patent protections.
This marks the second time the companies have reportedly entered into a partnership of this kind. Novo Nordisk exited the first deal within two months after accusing Hims of refusing to stop distributing copycats of Novo Nordisk’s drugs.
“The big issue with Hims is that we had an agreement that the mass compounding would stop and unfortunately it didn’t stop,” Ludovic Helfgott, executive vice president of product and portfolio strategy at Novo, said in an interview quoted by Bloomberg. “That’s why we ended the partnership.”
Airline stocks sink amid spike in oil prices, expectations of higher ticket prices
Airline stocks sold off on Monday as spiking crude oil prices over the weekend pointed to higher jet fuel costs.
Shares of Delta Air Lines (DAL) dropped 3.1%, American Airlines (AAL) declined 3.8%, and United Airlines (UAL) fell 2.8% before the opening bell on Monday.
Airlines no longer hedge fuel prices, which account for between a quarter to one-fifth of their overall costs. On Friday, United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby said the impact of higher fuel costs on airfare would “probably start quick.”
Over the past month, the US airlines have seen stock drawdowns of between 20% and 26%.
European air carriers Lufthansa (LHA.DE) tumbled roughly 5%, while British Airways and Aer Lingus parent company International Consolidated Airlines Group (IAG.L) slid 3%. Air France-KLM (AF.PA) also declined by 3%.
Global bond rout grows as oil jump upends interest-rate outlook
Bloomberg reports:
Europe’s blue chips head for correction as oil soars
From Bloomberg:
Stagflation trades sweep markets as Trump signals widening war
Optimism for a quick resolution of the conflict in the Middle East is rapidly ebbing in financial markets.
Bloomberg reports:
G7 to discuss joint release of emergency oil reserves
The Financial Times reports:
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How some on Wall Street are thinking
Veteran strategist Chris Rupkey has this solid new hot take on the oil surge below.
I would say his view is still far from the consensus (we go into a recession because of the Iran situation), But we should be on the lookout for commentary like this in the next few days:
Goldman weighs in on oil surge
Goldman Sachs’ new call on oil already looks outdated, given the outsized move in prices we have seen since last night.
Asian gauges hammered as soaring oil price shakes global markets
Major gauges across Asia fell upwards of 5% as the US-Israeli war with Iran was seen to cause global instability. The drops have been driven by surging oil prices, a potential indicator of an incoming recession, accro
AP Finance reports:
Gold falls against backdrop of instability from oil spike
Bloomberg reports:
Oil pushes past $100 a barrel in fastest rally since 1980s
Yahoo Finance’s Jake Conley reports: