North Carolina held its 2026 primary elections last week on Tuesday, March 3.
Now that the dust has largely settled around those outcomes, although arguably the most important result remains outstanding, we wanted to provide an update on not only individual races but on how the primary outcomes are likely to shape the General Assembly into the new biennium.
North Carolina Voter Turnout
In total, a record 800,000 North Carolinians voted in Democratic primaries last week, compared to 626,000 who participated in Republican primaries. Republican primary participation this year was notably lower than turnout in the state’s last mid-term primary in 2022. As of late 2025, registered Republicans now eclipse unaffiliated voters and registered Democrats in North Carolina as the largest voting group, but voter turnout in the primary trended in the opposite direction last week.
U.S. Senate and Congressional Races
At the top of the ballot, there were competitive contests for the United States Senate and for United States House of Representatives seats. Predictably, former Governor Roy Cooper and former Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Whatley won their respective Senate primaries. They will square off in November for the Senate seat currently held by Thom Tillis.
In the newly redrawn 1st Congressional District, retired U.S. Army Colonel Laurie Buckhout emerged as the winner from a crowded and experienced field of Republican candidates, including beloved North Carolina Senator Bobby Hanig, who currently represents Senate District 1. The Republican primary was particularly crowded after the district was redrawn in October to strongly favor Republicans. Buckhout will face incumbent Congressman Don Davis in November.
General Assembly Primaries Overview
Of the 170 North Carolina House and Senate districts, only 59 had candidates competing in a primary last Tuesday. There were 15 primary contests for the North Carolina Senate and 44 for the North Carolina House. A 45th primary contest was set to take place in House District 73, but tragically, one of the candidates passed away before the election.
Moderate House Democrats Ousted
Three experienced incumbent Democrats, Representatives Cunningham, Majeed, and Willingham, lost their respective primary races after fallout over their tendency to support Republicans on veto overrides, budget votes, and other controversial measures. Each of their prevailing opponents was endorsed by the Young Democrats of North Carolina. Representatives Cunningham and Willingham were two of the longest-serving members of the House Democratic Caucus.
House Speaker Destin Hall coined the term “working super majority” to describe the coalition of 71 Republicans and Democrats like Rep. Cunningham, Willingham, Majeed, and Brockman that routinely collaborated to override Gubernatorial vetoes and pass controversial legislation in the House in 2025. Now that three of these moderate Democrats have lost their primaries and Rep. Cecil Brockman resigned during his criminal investigation last year, achieving a true Republican super majority in the House will be critical for Republican leadership in the new biennium. In other words, we expect these three primary outcomes to have a significant impact on the House’s ability to override Governor Stein’s vetoes in 2027 unless Republicans are able to gain House seats in November.
The Political Earthquake in Senate District 26
Although the House primaries have already set the stage for a very different political environment in the 2027-28 biennium of the North Carolina General Assembly, it is nearly impossible to imagine a more impactful political earthquake than what took place in Senate President Pro Tem Phil Berger’s District 26 primary last week.
Having led Senate Republicans since the Republican sweep of the North Carolina Senate and House in 2011, Berger has served as Senate President Pro Tempore for 15 years and is regarded by many as the most powerful person in North Carolina politics. He has authored and stalled budgets, controlled the flow of bills between the chambers, championed tax cuts, redrawn state and Congressional electoral maps, and set fundraising records for his party. For the last decade and a half, virtually nothing has been beyond his reach, but last week that changed. As of last Tuesday night, it appears that Berger’s own Senate seat may soon belong to his primary opponent, longtime Rockingham Sheriff Sam Page.
Page emerged as a primary challenger shortly after Berger introduced a controversial proposal in 2023 to locate a massive casino project in his district. More broadly, the legislation would have authorized non-tribal casinos in North Carolina for the first time. The local backlash was immediate, vocal, and well-organized. The casino proposal was ultimately tabled, but the issue clearly followed Berger into the next election.
After 28 years in local elected leadership, Page had significant local support and strong name recognition within the district. Polling leading up to the District 26 primary indicated a slight lead – within the margin of error – for Page. Rumors of his local momentum had been swirling for months, but the results late Tuesday night were still hard to believe. With all precincts reporting, Page led Berger by a mere two votes at the conclusion of voting Tuesday night, sending shockwaves throughout North Carolina politics and even headlining national election reporting.
Over the course of last week, provisional ballots were identified, counted, and cured. Over the weekend, the totals landed at 13,136 (50.04%) votes for Page and 13,113 votes for Berger (49.96%). Reports indicate that Berger spent over $10 million on the race, or $762 per vote, undoubtedly making it the most expensive primary in state history and far more expensive than most general election races.
Senate Leadership in Transition
Even with the gap widening slightly over the last few days, the race is still well under the 1% margin that allows a candidate to request a recount. Overseas and military ballots continue to be counted as they are received. After the results are certified on March 13th through the county canvass, we expect Berger will exercise his right to request a recount. Either candidate can also file a formal challenge to any ballot they believe was cast by an ineligible voter. All eligibility challenges must be filed by March 10. Any requested recounts must be completed by the statewide canvass on March 25th. Along with everyone else in North Carolina politics, we will continue to watch closely as the process unfolds.
The recount will be overseen by State Auditor Dave Boliek, who issued an endorsement for Berger in the primary. Although Page called on Boliek to recuse himself from the process last week, given the endorsement, the State Board of Elections responded publicly that it is confident Boliek will not compromise the integrity of the election. Additionally, Governor Josh Stein told the News and Observer on Monday of this week that he had no reason to doubt the accuracy of the results of the race.
If current results hold and Page becomes the new Senator for District 26, the Senate Republican Caucus will need to elect a new leader for the 2027-28 biennium. Our sources indicate that those conversations have already begun and that Senate Majority Whip Todd Johnson is the leading candidate for the post. Senator Johnson is currently serving his fourth term in the Senate, representing Cabarrus and Union Counties. He owns a successful insurance business in the area and is well-liked by his peers.
Regardless of who the Senate Republican Caucus elects, there is no doubt that new Senate leadership would completely change the dynamics between the two chambers and, one can hope, would help to alleviate the current tensions, spirit of distrust, and rigid impasse that currently exist between them. With relatively new leadership in both chambers, we could hope for a fresh slate between the two chambers and would be cautiously optimistic that we could expect improved bill flow in 2027.
Other Notable Primary Outcomes
Beyond the District 26 primary and the races of the moderate House Democrats, there were a handful of other notable outcomes worth highlighting here.
Eight-term incumbent House member Kelly Hastings – once a candidate for House Speaker – lost his Republican primary in District 110. Three-term Republican incumbent Mark Pless lost his primary in Madison and Haywood Counties as well. Pless was heavily involved in the House’s work on two Hurricane Helene relief packages in 2025, totaling $1.3 billion, and has been a tireless advocate for the needs of western North Carolina. Incumbent Republican Reece Pyrtle lost his primary in District 65 as well. In House District 79, incumbent Republican Keith Kidwell lost to farmer and businessman Darren Armstrong by roughly 4.5 percentage points.
Former Democrat Tricia Cotham handily won her Mecklenburg County primary against Kelly VanHorn, carrying 84 percent of the vote. Former Representative Kevin Crutchfield challenged newly appointed Senator Chris Measmer in the Cabarrus County Republican Senate primary and prevailed with 53 percent of the vote. Veteran lobbyist Chris Stock won his competitive Wake County primary against Cheryl Caulfield with almost 61 percent of the vote.
Looking Ahead to the 2027-28 Biennium
Regardless of the outcome in Senate District 26, the new biennium will bring fresh faces and new ideas to both chambers. While there may be less cooperation between House Republicans and House Democrats in 2027, we predict improved relations between the two chambers and, hopefully, improved bill flow and budget activity to follow.
Ward and Smith’s Government Relations Team will continue to track these developments and provide updates as they unfold.