It is not unheard of for the demand for home health care to exceed the supply. One 2023 study found that the number of home care workers per 100 participants in the Medicaid home and community-based services program declined by 11.6 percent between 2013 and 2019. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, there will be an increase of nearly 740,000 home health and personal care aide jobs between 2025 and 2034, a 17 percent growth rate—by comparison, the average growth rate for all jobs is 3 percent.
However, that growth may be insufficient. According to the health policy organization PHI, the home care workforce will add 772,000 new direct jobs over the next decade, the majority of which will be for the home care workforce; however, there will also be 9.7 million job openings in direct care as a whole from 2024 through 2034.
Those struggles to meet demand may be exacerbated by recent federal policy changes, including dramatic cuts to Medicaid approved by Congress last year. Despite confusion among many adults over how long-term care is financed, Medicare—the public health program for elderly Americans—does not cover long-term stays in nursing facilities, nor does it pay for the majority of home-health services. Instead, Medicaid, which provides health care for low-income individuals and is jointly funded by federal and state governments, covers the bulk of long-term care costs in the country. This can also help explain lower wages for home health care aides, as Medicaid reimbursement tends to be less than that of Medicare or other insurance.