Aryna Sabalenka has never won the title at the BNP Paribas Open, but after defeating Linda Noskova 6-3, 6-4 on Friday night she’s into her third final in four years. Last year, Sabalenka lost the championship match to teenager Mirra Andreeva. Three years ago, it was Elena Rybakina who snatched the title from her grasp.

As luck would have it, Sunday’s final (11 a.m. local time, 2 p.m. ET) offers Sabalenka the most complete opportunity for revenge you could imagine. That’s because it was Rybakina who also beat Sabalenka in this year’s Australian Open final. Of the 17 WTA Tour Driven by Mercedes-Benz matches she’s played this season, it’s the only one that Sabalenka didn’t win.

“I’m happy to put myself out there, give myself a chance to win that beautiful trophy — not the smaller one, thank you,” Sabalenka said on Tennis Channel.

Prior to Rybakina’s match against Elina Svitolina on Friday, she added, “I feel like against Elena, it’s always super aggressive, it’s all about the first few balls in every point. If you dominate in those two points, I feel like, most likely, you’re going to win the point. It’s very aggressive, very fast tennis.

“Yeah, if it’s her, I’m excited, actually.”

Indeed it was Rybakina, who reached the title match here in the Coachella Valley by handling Svitolina 7-5, 6-4. Her deep run here will push her past Iga Swiatek, to No. 2, in next week’s PIF WTA Rankings. It will be a new career high. 

So it’s No. 1 versus the virtual No. 2, with some potentially interesting implications for the top spot as the season progresses. Sabalenka leads the head-to-head 8-7 — only Swiatek and Coco Gauff have met more times (16) in WTA main draws among active players.

Sabalenka is the first World No. 1 to reach the women’s final at Indian Wells in consecutive years since the tournament debuted in 1989. Can she take the next step?

WTA writers Greg Garber and Brad Kallet make the case for each finalist:

The Case for Sabalenka

While Rybakina typically hits the most aces (516 in 2025), Sabalenka hurts opponents more softly by hitting her spots.

With Noskova one point away from getting the second set back on serve, Sabalenka hit three straight unreturnable serves. She finished with 11 aces and 37 winners, her strongest numbers in any match this season.

Sabalenka is the first player to reach back-to-back finals at Indian Wells since Maria Sharapova (2012-2013). And then there’s this gem from the folks at Opta by Stats Perform: In the 73 weeks she’s been at No. 1, Sabalenka has progressed to 12 finals, five more than next-best Jessica Pegula.

In other words, she’s been in this spot many times, Brad, and knows what to expect. Want some more reasons to think Sabalenka will win?

Consider this: Every one of Sabalenka’s 16 wins this year has come in straight sets. For those of you counting at home, that’s 33 of 35 sets. And this: Sabalenka has now advanced to 14 WTA 1000 finals, eclipsing Swiatek and Petra Kvitova. Sabalenka has the best percentage of break points saved (46 of 64, .719) among all WTA players this year. OK, one more … Sabalenka has reached the final in her first three tournaments of the year for the first time ever.

Sabalenka was asked if she is a better player – in terms of net play, drop shots and other added wrinkles — than she was a year ago.

“I want to have a better quality in all of those shots that I improved over the years,” she said. “But I feel like if you want to be on the top, you always have to search for something, for little details to add to your game so you can be really unpredictable. And, yeah, to have all those tools in your game, that definitely gives you so much of advantage over other players.

“Definitely, compared to myself a couple years ago, I’m definitely [a] much better player, more complete player, and I know that if my plan A is not working, I have plan B and C. That’s what we have been really working a lot [on] over the last couple of years.” — Greg Garber

The Case for Rybakina

It’s almost incomprehensible what Rybakina has been able to do since last October. 

I won’t rehash all of it right now, but the highlights are worth mentioning: winning six straight matches to sneak into the WTA Finals, which she went on to sweep (with wins over Swiatek and Sabalenka). Then, after the offseason, picking up right where she left off and winning the Australian Open (where she again beat Swiatek and Sabalenka).

Over that span she’s gone 28-4, and one of those losses was a mid-match retirement and another was a walkover. Since October 10, she’s lost two completed matches. She’s also now won 12 straight matches against Top 10 players.

All of this to say, Greg, that as strong as Sabalenka has been playing the last few months, Rybakina is the hottest player on the WTA Tour Driven by Mercedes-Benz dating back to the last two months of the 2025 season.

We all know about the serve and the cool demeanor, but I’ve also been impressed by the two-time Grand Slam champion’s resilience when she’s not at her best. Take the semifinal on Friday, when there were a couple of hiccups. Noskova took an early 2-0 lead in the first set, and later Rybakina let a pair of break points slip away in a five-deuce game.

Then in the second set, she was cruising 5-1 but let Svitolina claw her way back into the set and cut it to 5-4. But on her third match point, 20 minutes after the first one, a forehand winner down the line clinched it.

In the final against Sabalenka, Rybakina will no doubt be buoyed by her most recents wins against Sabalenka, in Riyadh and Melbourne. And these weren’t just any wins — they were in the biggest moments, on two of the biggest stages in the sport.

“If I make it to the final, I want to make sure that I get it, I get the trophy,” Sabalenka said on Friday. “You know, I’m so done of losing these big finals.”

The pressure will be on Sabalenka, who is fresh off that Australian Open final loss, and has lost her previous two Indian Wells finals.

If Rybakina jumps out to an early lead, as she did in their previous two meetings, and holds serve from there, she has a great chance to win her second Indian Wells title. — Brad Kallet