The Battle to Control Hormuz Will Be the ‘Worst Phase’ of the Iran Conflict. Here’s Why, According to Ray Dalio
FROM 35 minutes ago
The war in Iran represents the “final battle” that stands to change not just oil prices but the world, according to investor Ray Dalio.
Dalio, the founder of hedge fund Bridgewater Associates, has been forecasting the end of American dominance. In a Substack post Monday, he wrote that while it was “always assumed” the U.S. would remain a dominant power in the world order, the “cumulative effect” of post-World War II events—including the wars in Vietnam, Afghanistan, Iraq, and the current one with Iran—jeopardizes the global power dynamic of which the U.S. has been a leader. While some market watchers are focused intently on the outlook for oil prices and the global economy, Dalio sees a possible end of an empire looming.
Ray Dalio sees the fight to control the Strait of Hormuz as affecting more than oil-price fluctuations.
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“While there is talk of ending this war with an agreement, everyone knows that no agreement will resolve this war because agreements are worthless,” he wrote. “Whatever happens next—i.e., leaving Hormuz in Iranian hands or taking control away from them—is likely to be the worst phase of the conflict. This ‘final battle,’ which will make crystal clear which side won and which side lost control, is likely to be a very big one.”
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The Stocks Goldman Sachs Thinks You Should Own as Iran War Stretches Into a Third Week
FROM 41 minutes ago
The war in Iran is entering its third week with no end in sight. That, according to Goldman Sachs analysts, warrants some portfolio changes.
Stocks have been on a dramatic ride since the U.S. and Israel launched strikes against Iran late last month. The S&P 500 is down about 2.5%, weighed down by soaring oil prices and the macroeconomic uncertainty they create. The Cboe Volatility Index, Wall Street’s fear index, declined sharply Monday amid a stock rebound, but remains above 20, generally considered the dividing line between a calm and jittery market.
Goldman Sachs analysts expect stocks will rebound from a modest pullback fueled by conflict in Iran.
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While trading has been volatile, experts at Goldman Sachs don’t expect the war in Iran to derail the three-year-old bull market. While the conflict has increased downside risks, they wrote Friday “the baseline outlook for US equities remains constructive.” Nonetheless, the war has changed Goldman’s outlook for individual sectors and factors.
“Higher oil [prices] and greater uncertainty should cut short the cyclical economic acceleration underpinning many of our investment recommendations heading into 2026,” the analysts wrote.
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Americans Are Going All in on Gambling
FROM 1 hr 16 min ago
The casinos in our pockets are sucking up more and more of our money.
Spending on gambling surged 16% over the 12 months ending in February, PNC Bank said Monday in a report on consumer spending based on credit card and bank account transaction data. That made it one of the fastest-growing spending categories tracked by the bank, showing the growing financial impact as online sports betting and other mobile gambling apps proliferate.
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“What had been a relatively small and niche category has grown rapidly over the past two years, outpacing most other discretionary segments,” the bank said in its report. “The acceleration suggests that consumers are increasingly turning to online betting platforms, casinos, and lottery outlets as a growing share of overall entertainment spending.”
The surge of spending underscores how rapidly gambling has gone from a gray-market activity to a normal part of people’s lives. As gambling expands, more experts are sounding the alarm about the financial damage it’s doing, especially to younger, less financially literate people.
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All 11 S&P 500 Sectors Higher Monday
FROM 1 hr 22 min ago
The S&P 500 is up across the board Monday.
All 11 sectors tracked by the benchmark index were in the green in the final hour of trading.
Information Technology was the top-performing sector, up 1.8%, followed by Consumer Discretionary (1.5%), Communication Services (1%), and Industrials (1%).
Consumer Staples brought up the rear but still was up 0.1%.
The index was up 1.1% overall.
Gas Prices Just Rose for the 15th Straight Day—See What Drivers Are Paying in Your State
FROM 2 hr 21 min ago
Oil prices are extending their surge that began at the start of March, triggered by the Iran conflict. That escalating price for crude oil is continuing to impact drivers across the country.
The national average for regular gas rose 9 cents over the weekend to $3.72 per gallon, according to AAA—bringing the increase to 74 cents in 15 days. Before the March run-up, the average had held below $3 for 13 straight weeks—the first time in $2 territory since 2021.
Amid the Iran conflict, gas prices across the country range from $3.13 per gallon to more than $5.
Investopedia / Sabrina Karl
Gas prices vary sharply depending on where you live. While the average has surged everywhere, state-level prices span a wide range across the country.
Drivers in Kansas are still seeing the cheapest price at the pump—at $3.14, according to AAA—with the next cheapest states being North Dakota, Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Missouri. Every state’s price has averaged above $3 per gallon since March 11.
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Dollar Tree Stock Jumps on Better-Than-Expected Q4 Profit, Comparable Sales
FROM 3 hr 17 min ago
Dollar Tree (DLTR) issued cautious guidance Monday. Its stock is surging anyway.
Shares of Dollar Tree jumped about 7.5% in recent trading to rank among the top S&P 500 gainers in recent trading even though the Chesapeake, Va.-based company’s projections mostly were weaker than analysts’ estimates.
Before the bell, the discount retailer reported fiscal 2025 fourth-quarter adjusted earnings of $2.56 per share on revenue that rose 9% year-over-year to $5.45 billion. Analysts surveyed by Visible Alpha had expected $2.53 and $5.47 billion, respectively. Comparable store net sales grew 5.0%, ahead of expectations of about 4.6%.
“Stores with more mature multi-price assortments delivered stronger seasonal demand and higher average tickets, reinforcing the incremental nature of the strategy,” CEO Mike Creedon said on the earnings call, according to a transcript provided by AlphaSense. “We see discretionary outperformance as an indicator of customer receptivity to expanded value, with shoppers gravitating toward broader assortments and higher value options.”
Dollar Tree was one of the top gainers in the S&P 500 Monday.
Erik McGregor / LightRocket via Getty Images
For the current quarter, Dollar Tree sees adjusted EPS of $1.45 to $1.60 and comparable sales of 3% to 4%, and the midpoints of both were low consensus estimates. Its full-year comparable sales forecast also came up short, although the $6.70 midpoint of its adjusted EPS range was slightly above expecations.
“I want to briefly address the tariff environment,” CFO Stewart Glendinning said on the call. “We have considered all of the recent changes. And while there may be some upside, we remain cautious because of the potential for further near-term changes and because of the potential for negative freight and other costs related to the conflict in the Middle East.”
Even with today’s sharp gains, Dollar Tree shares remain down about 6% year-to-date.
Here’s Why These Experts Say Buy Energy Stocks Rather Than the S&P 500 Right Now
FROM 4 hr 10 min ago
Sometimes the best trade can be the obvious one.
The war in Iran appears to be at an impasse, with the effective closure of a key water passageway driving energy experts to raise the alarm on disruptions to the crude oil supply. Energy executives including those from ExxonMobil (XOM), Chevron (CVX), and ConocoPhillips (COP) reportedly warned White House officials last week that the situation around the Strait of Hormuz would get worse, according to The Wall Street Journal, while the Trump administration is working to address high oil prices.
Stocks rose in early Monday trading.
Timothy A. Clary / AFP via Getty Images
Those prices are driving outperformance in energy stocks. The State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE), which holds the dozens of energy stocks in the broad market index, is up more than 25% year-to-date. Bank of America’s strategists now advise buying the S&P Energy sector—not the S&P 500 at large—because, they say, the group looks undervalued compared with the index as a whole.
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More Big Tech Layoffs Loom as Meta Mulls 20% Cut to Its Workforce
FROM 4 hr 54 min ago
Another massive round of layoffs could be coming for employees at Meta Platforms (META).
The social media giant is considering cutting 20% or more of its workforce as it looks to offset its hefty investments in AI and prepare for improvements in efficiency from advances with the technology, Reuters reported over the weekend. In its latest annual filing, Meta said it had just under 79,000 employees at the end of 2025.
Meta did not respond to an Investopedia request for comment in time for publication.
Meta has already made cuts to several teams in recent months, including its AI and metaverse groups.
Joan Cros / NurPhoto / Getty Images
Meta said in its January earnings report that it expects to spend $115 billion to $135 billion in capital expenditures this year as it ramps up its AI data center buildout. JPMorgan analysts said they estimate a 20% layoff would save Meta about $5 billion to $6 billion, and that the savings could help boost 2027 earnings in the face of rising costs.
“If Meta is willing to reduce headcount at this scale while ramping AI investment, we think it signals a broader shift,” Jefferies analysts said, noting that other tech firms could make similar moves, adding to a spate of layoffs in the industry.
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Just Four of 30 Dow Components in Red
FROM 5 hr 19 min ago
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up about 450 points, or 1.0%, in late-morning trading. Perhaps it’s no surprise that nearly all its components are trading in positive territory.
Just four of the 20 Dow components were in the red in recent trading, with 3M (MMM) the biggest decliner at 1.5%.
Walmart (WMT) was down 1.1%, while Verizon Communications (VZ) and Walt Disney (DIS) were 0.7% and 0.3% lower, respectively.
3M was one of just four Dow components in the red today.
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Fertilizer Stocks Drop for Second Straight Session
FROM 6 hr 36 min ago
Fertilizer stocks are pulling back for a second consecutive session after their recent surge.
CF Industries (CF) and Mosaic (MOS) were the two worst-performing stocks in the S&P 500 in early trading, down nearly 5% apiece, and Nutrien (NTR) shares fell about 4%.
Fertilizer producers stand to benefit from supply disruptions due to halted transit through the Strait of Hormuz, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC that the U.S. is allowing Iranian tankers to pass through “to supply the rest of the world.”
On Friday, Mosaic, CF Industries, and Nutrien shares retreated about 6%, 4.5%, and 1%, respectively. Shares had advanced since Middle East fighting commenced Feb. 28.
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Crypto-Tied Stocks Jump Along With Bitcoin
FROM 7 hr 56 min ago
Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are on the rise Monday morning. So are crypto-tied stocks.
MARA Holdings (MARA), Circle Internet Group (CRCL), and Strategy (MSTR) were among crypto-related shares surging before the bell, rising a respective 6%, 5.5%, and 4.5%, respectively.
Coinbase Global (COIN) and Robinhood Markets (HOOD) also were higher, rising a respective 4% and 2.5%.
Bitcoin was trading around $73,600, up from overnight lows below $71,500, but still well below its record above $126,000 set last October. Ether was up 6.5% on the day to roughly $2,270.
Bitcoin remains well off its record high of above $126,000 set last October.
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Americans Under 35 Are Buying Homes Again But the Lockout for Many Continues
FROM 8 hr 36 min ago
Homeownership among Americans under 35 recently hit its highest point in two years, a rebound after months of grim headlines about young buyers being priced out of the market.
Data from the Census Bureau’s Housing Vacancy Survey shows that 37.9% of households headed by someone under 35 owned their home in the fourth quarter of 2025. That’s up 1.6 percentage points from a year earlier, when the rate had sunk to 36.3%—the lowest level in five years. That number for 2025 was a surprise to analysts who expected homeownership rates to continue dropping.
The rebound is real, but under-35 homeownership remains well below where it stood two decades ago.
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Easing mortgage rates have been “the most immediate catalyst, pulling some previously sidelined buyers back into the market by improving monthly affordability,” said Hannah Jones, senior economic research analyst at Realtor.com, in an email. Modest price adjustments, rising inventory, and increased geographic flexibility toward lower-cost markets also played a role, she said.
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Nebius Group Shares Soar After Latest AI Deal, This Time With Meta Platforms
FROM 8 hr 52 min ago
Nebius Group (NBIS) shareholders no doubt are loving their recent press releases.
Shares of Nebius Group soared 13% in premarket trading Monday after the Amsterdam-based AI cloud company said it had reached a new five-year AI infrastructure supply agreement with Meta Platforms (META) worth up to about $27 billion.
Nebius said it “will provide $12 billion of dedicated capacity across multiple locations, based on one of the first large-scale deployments of the NVIDIA Vera Rubin platform,” starting in early 2027. In addition, Meta committed to buy up to $15 billion of additional available capacity across certain upcoming Nebius clusters, the Dutch firm said.
“We are pleased to expand our significant partnership with Meta as part of securing more large, long-term capacity contracts to accelerate the build-out and growth of our core AI cloud business,” Nebius founder and CEO Arkady Volozh said. “We will continue to deliver.”
Last Wednesday, Nebius shares surged 16% on news that Nvidia (NVDA) would invest $2 billion in the company as part of “a strategic partnership to develop and deploy the next generation of hyperscale cloud for the AI market.”
Nebius shares have added more than a third of their value this year.
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The Fed Will Almost Certainly Hold at Its Meeting This Week-Here’s What’s Still Up in the Air
FROM 9 hr 17 min ago
The Federal Reserve policymakers are nearly certain to keep their key interest rate unchanged when they decide on monetary policy this week, with the real question being how officials are thinking about the Iran war and its effects on inflation.
The Federal Open Market Committee is widely expected to keep the federal funds rate at its current range of 3.5% to 3.75% when it concludes its two-day policy meeting on Wednesday. That would be the second meeting in a row the central bank has kept the rate flat, after cutting it by a quarter-point at each of its last three meetings of 2025 to lower borrowing costs on all kinds of loans and boost the faltering job market.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and his colleagues will likely consider the impact of the war.
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Financial markets are pricing in more than a 99% chance the Fed will keep policy flat, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool, which forecasts rate movements based on fed funds futures trading data.
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Stock Futures Point Higher After Major Indexes Close Lower for 3rd Straight Week
FROM 9 hr 56 min ago
Futures contracts connected to the Dow Jones Industrial Average pointed up 0.3%.
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S&P 500 futures were 0.6% higher.
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Nasdaq 100 futures also pointed up 0.7%.
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