I’ve watched just enough men’s college basketball this season to be dangerous. So, with the NCAA Tournament around the corner, I thought I would put some of that to work with some bracket predictions.
Before we start: The selection committee does a much better job now than it did even 10 years ago at using predictive measures to help seed the field and algorithms like WAB (Wins Above Bubble) to select teams for inclusion based on their resumes. The joke seedings where a No. 11 seed might be favored over a No. 6 are largely a thing of the past. As a result, most upsets are now genuine upsets and not the result of seeding errors.
That said, the one area where the committee might have faltered this season is dealing with injuries. Teams such as Texas Tech, Louisville, BYU and North Carolina seem overseeded based on the roster they will actually be using in the tournament games, and those are the most ripe opportunities for upset picks. It helps that No. 12 Akron (vs. Texas Tech), No. 11 VCU (vs. North Carolina) and No. 11 South Florida (vs. Louisville) all are up to the task. BYU’s opponent, alas, is the winner of a coin-toss First Four game between Texas and NC State, making it tougher to pick one or the other in a bracket.
Those are my only first-round upset picks aside from the 8-9 games, where I have No. 9 seeds Utah State and Iowa winning. I expect the top four seeds to roll through with ease as they did last season; name, image and likeness has greatly widened the gap between haves and have-nots and made it a lot harder for the first-round Cinderellas.
The fact that the committee did its job and that the weakest seeds are on the No. 6 line also could give us a pretty chalky second round and beyond. Normally, 3-6 matchups cause a lot of bracket mayhem, but I see less potential for that.
The exception is Virginia. The third-seeded Wahoos are unfortunately quite vulnerable against No. 6 Tennessee, but I can’t pick against my alma mater in my bracket. I have No. 5 Vanderbilt beating No. 4 Nebraska and No. 5 Wisconsin beating No. 4 Arkansas, but otherwise, I’ve gone chalk here. I know, really brave of me.
In the Sweet 16, I like Michigan State over UConn, but otherwise I’m riding the top eight seeds. The one true upset pick that gave me pause was Duke-St. John’s, but I think the Blue Devils can survive one more round even if they don’t have Caleb Foster or Patrick Ngongba.
I’ll take Michigan State again in the East regional final, and I’ll pick Houston over Florida in the South. Michigan in the Midwest Region and Arizona in the West have been dominant all season, and I’ll pick them to keep steamrolling.
That leaves us one question: Who wins between Michigan and Arizona in a national semifinal? Both teams are huge, and they both have some shooting questions, but Michigan is even bigger and could eradicate Arizona’s biggest strength. I’ll take the Wolverines to win it all, knocking off Houston in the national championship. I saw them in person three times, and their hugeness and ability to cover ground on defense were palpable. I saw Arizona twice, and the Wildcats were good, but to my eyes, not on the Wolverines’ level.
Now comes the important part: File these picks away so you can return to them in three weeks and laugh hysterically. Picking one-game elimination tournaments is a fool’s errand, especially after the first round, when margins are typically small enough for random shooting noise to determine winners. Somehow, some way, something completely unexpected will happen, and that’s what makes it fun.