The 68 teams who made the 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket were announced on Sunday and first-round action begins on Thursday, which means time is running out to complete your March Madness bracket picks 2026. The 5 vs. 12 matchups have attracted plenty of attention since the field first expanded in 1985 because it typically produces power conference versus mid-major battles and thrilling March Madness upsets. So which of the 5 vs. 12 matchups should you be watching the most closely during March Madness 2026?

Wisconsin vs. High Point and Vanderbilt vs. McNeese are both on Thursday, while St. John’s vs. Northern Iowa and Texas Tech vs. Akron are both on Friday. Who wins those matchups and which March Madness Cinderella teams should you be including in your 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket picks? Before you make your 2026 NCAA Tournament predictions, see the 2026 March Madness bracket picks from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

Two years ago, SportsLine’s computer simulation nailed massive upsets, including huge wins by No. 11 Oregon over No. 6 South Carolina, No. 11 NC State over No. 6 Texas Tech, No. 10 Colorado over No. 7 Florida. Last year, SportsLine’s computer simulation nailed massive upsets, including calling both 9-seeds that advanced in the first round, No. 12 Colorado State over No. 5 Memphis, and No. 6 BYU advancing to the Sweet 16. The model has beaten over 91 percent of all CBS Sports bracket players in four of the past seven tournaments.

This model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, has nailed 25 first-round upsets by double-digit seeds since its inception in 2016 and nailed UConn’s championship run in 2024. It nailed 12 teams in the Sweet 16 and correctly predicted all four Final Four teams a year ago.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every college basketball game 10,000 times. It entered conference tournament week on a sizzling 14-2 run on its top-rated over/under college basketball picks dating back to last season, and is on a 28-21 run on top-rated CBB side picks. You shouldn’t even think about making a pick without seeing what their model has to say.

Top 2026 March Madness bracket upset picks

One South Region surprise the model has identified: No. 11 VCU upsets six-time national champion and No. 6-seeded North Carolina. The Tar Heels lost star freshman Caleb Wilson to a season-ending hand injury at the end of the regular season, and they lost to Clemson in their first game of the ACC Tournament. They went just 5-3 without Wilson this season, as his 19.8 points per game were the most by a freshman in school history.

VCU has lost only one game in the last two months and is averaging its most points per game (81.6) in the last 50 years. The Rams are a deep team, ranked seventh in Division I in bench points per game (34.0) this season. Head coach Phil Martelli Jr. led the team to 27 wins in his first season, tied for the second-most ever behind Anthony Grant. 

Another South Region surprise the model has identified: No. 10 Texas A&M knocks off No. 7 Saint Mary’s. The WCC was strong this season, with Gonzaga, Saint Mary’s and Santa Clara all earning bids. However, the Gaels did feast on lesser competition throughout the season, going 1-4 in Quad 1 games and getting run out of the gym in a neutral-site game against the only SEC opponent that they played (Vanderbilt).

Texas A&M put a pretty clear emphasis on tempo in Bucky McMillan’s first year at the helm, ranking ninth in the nation in points per game (87.7) and 11th in possessions per game (76.0). They’ll look to make Saint Mary’s uncomfortable, just like Mark Byington and Vandy did back in November. That’s a big reason why the model likes the Aggies to advance as a double-digit seed. See which other 2026 March Madness upsets and matchups to target here.

How to make 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket predictions

Who wins every tournament-defining matchup? And which teams will make surprising runs through the 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket? With the model’s track record of calling bracket-busting upsets, you’ll want to see which stunners it’s calling this year before locking in any 2026 NCAA bracket picks.

So what’s the optimal NCAA Tournament 2026 bracket? And which NCAA Tournament Cinderella teams will shock college basketball? Visit SportsLine now to see which region features two mammoth upsets in the first round, including one by a No. 14 seed, and see which 6-seed makes the Sweet 16, all from the model that’s nailed 25 first-round upsets by double-digit seeds.