Zeynep Sonmez faces Beatriz Haddad Maia in the first round of the 2026 Miami Open, with a second-round meeting against Belinda Bencic awaiting the winner. The market has installed Sonmez as a clear favorite.
Sonmez, ranked No. 83, has at least shown flashes with a quarterfinal run in Merida, but her broader results remain inconsistent with early exits across multiple hard-court stops. Statistically, Sonmez’s profile leans more toward return strength than serve dominance. She produced 62.1% first-serve points won, which is modest, but a strong 44.2% return points won and a 48.9% break conversion rate.
Haddad Maia, currently No. 69, enters in even weaker form, with early exits across Adelaide, Melbourne, Abu Dhabi, Doha, Merida, Indian Wells, and Austin. Her 2025 stats show a slightly stronger serve (64.7% first-serve points won) but weaker return efficiency (40.7%) compared to Sonmez. The gap isn’t large, but it suggests Sonmez has the more disruptive baseline profile.
For today’s tennis picks, here’s how we’re betting on Zeynep Sonmez vs. Beatriz Haddad Maia today, including our Best Bet, supporting angles, and a set-score prop for bigger prices.
Tournament & Round: Miami Open, Round of 128 (R128)
Surface: Outdoor Hard Court
Format: Best of Three Sets
Date & Start Time: March 17, Not Before 07:00 PM EDT Local Time
Court: Miami Gardens, Florida, United States
Best Bet: Over 20.5 Games (-118, BetMGM)
Book: Best price at BetMGM
Our best bet for Zeynep Sonmez vs. Beatriz Haddad Maia is Over 20.5 Games (-118, BetMGM).
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Zeynep Sonmez vs. Beatriz Haddad Maia Odds
Given below are the latest odds for Zeynep Sonmez vs. Beatriz Haddad Maia from the top sportsbooks. We are looking at the match money line, game handicap, and total games, plus some set betting markets where available.
MarketFanDuelBetMGMMoneylineSonmez -184 / Maia +152Sonmez -192 / Maia +150Game HandicapSonmez -3.5 (-110) / Maia +3.5 (-122)Sonmez -3.5 (-111) / Maia +3.5 (-118)Total GamesOver 21.5 (-110) / Under 21.5 (-122)Over 20.5 (-118) / Under 20.5 (-110)Set BettingSonmez 2-0 (+130) / Maia 2-0 (+300)Sonmez 2-0 (+125) / Maia 2-0 (+300)Total Sets (2.5)Over +138 / Under -186Over +150 / Under -200
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Zeynep Sonmez vs. Beatriz Haddad Maia Prediction & Picks
Our Pick: Over 20.5 Games (-118, BetMGM)
The market prices Sonmez around 65% implied probability, which is reasonable but not dominant. The edge comes from her 44.2% return point win, which is a strong stat. However, her weaker serve (62.1%) offsets that advantage by introducing frequent breaks on both sides.
From a betting perspective, totals provide the cleanest angle. The spread (-3.5) requires Sonmez to sustain control across both serve and return, which her profile doesn’t fully support. Similarly, the moneyline lacks price efficiency given the volatility. In contrast, the game total benefits directly from both players’ inability to consistently hold serve.
Zeynep Sonmez Recent Form
Abu Dhabi – R32
Qatar – R64
Dubai – R64
Merida – Quarterfinal
Indian Wells – R64
Beatriz Haddad Maia Recent Form
Abu Dhabi – R32
Qatar – R64
Merida – R32
Indian Wells – R128
Austin 125 – R32
Zeynep Sonmez will take on Beatriz Haddad Maia in Miami R1
That is a completely brutal record for Haddad Maia on the season, lost R1 of a 125 event last week too. Will definitely have the Brazilian crowd on her side in this night match but Sonmez definitely the favorite pic.twitter.com/g3soyLQgbg
— Tennis Updates (@TennisUpdates26) March 17, 2026
Head-to-Head History
Zeynep Sonmez and Beatriz Haddad Maia do not have a head-to-head record yet.
Round of 128 Score Prediction & Set-Betting Prop
Projection: Zeynep Sonmez wins in three sets
Higher Variance Set Bet: Over 2.5 Sets (+150, BetMGM). Given that this is a high-risk bet, it is advised to use it as a secondary angle.
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How can I watch Zeynep Sonmez vs. Beatriz Haddad Maia on TV and live stream?
TV broadcasters for the 2026 Miami Open include Tennis Channel (United States), Sky Sports Tennis / Sky Sports (United Kingdom & Ireland), TSN (Canada), beIN Sports (Australia), and Sky Sport NZ (New Zealand).
Streaming options vary by region and typically require subscriptions. Live streaming is available globally on WTA TV. The Tennis Channel App / Tennis Channel Plus (USA), Sky Go / NOW (UK & Ireland), the TSN app / TSN+ (Canada), beIN CONNECT (Australia), and Sky Sport Now (New Zealand) are also available.
MatchZeynep Sonmez vs. Beatriz Haddad MaiaDateMarch 17, 2026Start TimeNot Before 07:00 PM EDT Local TimeTournamentMiami Open 2026Event TypeWomen’s Singles (WTA 1000)SurfaceOutdoor Hard CourtCourtMiami Gardens, Florida, United StatesTV CoverageTennis Channel (United States), Sky Sports Tennis / Sky Sports (United Kingdom & Ireland), TSN (Canada), beIN Sports (Australia), Sky Sport NZ (New Zealand).Live StreamingWTA TV, The Tennis Channel App / Tennis Channel Plus (USA), Sky Go / NOW (UK & Ireland), the TSN app / TSN+ (Canada), beIN CONNECT (Australia), Sky Sport Now (New Zealand)
Mandatory Image Credit: Geoff Burke-Imagn Images
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