There’s a lot of crazy, headline-grabbing stuff going on in the world right now: Iran War, Ukraine War (it’s still happening), my son discovering he has feet at the end of his legs.
And our current federal government also seems to be doing nothing but wild, corrupt, dramatic activities: sending Department of Homeland Security agents into cities led by Democrats to terrorize immigrants and people of color, funneling taxpayer money to the Trump family and their chosen buddies, taking government (read: taxpayer-funded) planes to concerts and the Olympics to party.
But! Against all odds, there are still sectors of the federal government doing the boring bureaucratic work of, you know, governing the country and keeping vital programs going.
One such department is the Congressional Budget Office, a nonpartisan office that provides economic and budgetary information to Congress. The nation’s number crunchers. A few weeks ago, they put out some bad news that nobody is paying enough attention to: the Hospital Insurance Trust Fund, which pays out benefits for Medicare Part A, is projected to be entirely exhausted by 2040. Last year, their report indicated the fund would be exhausted by 2052.
A quick guide to Medicare parts: Medicare Part A pays for inpatient hospital care, stays in skilled nursing facilities, some home health care and hospice care. Medicare Part B is outpatient medical care: doctor’s visits, scans, durable medical equipment, etc. Medicare Part C is the “Medicare Advantage” program that allows private companies to offer Medicare-approved plans to individuals, and Medicare Part D covers prescription drugs. (That one’s the easiest to remember because it’s “D” for “drugs.”)
So basically our government’s way to pay for hospital stays for everyone covered by Medicare is going to run out in 2040, which is 14 years away. That’s … not that long. What’s crazier to me is that one year ago, in March 2025, the CBO projected the fund would be solvent until 2052. Twelve years of financial solvency was lost in one year of Republican control of government. Of course, “lost” may not be the right word. The 12 years were “lost” like a can thrown out of a car window on the highway is “lost.”
The reason Medicare is going to run out of money that quickly is largely because of changes made to the tax code in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which cut a ton of vital tax revenue, especially from Social Security benefits. Now, I get that taxing Social Security isn’t a politically popular idea. (I think Congress could and should seek Medicare tax money from other sources, including wealth, high income, interest and capital gains. Rich people can afford to pay more in taxes, they’re literally rich.)
That’s one of the problems with elected government. Politicians who want to get elected in the next two or six years aren’t going to make tough choices that would benefit America 10 or 20 years down the line when an attack ad might get cut against them tomorrow.
Quite frankly, this is also a problem with having so many elderly members of Congress: statistically speaking, they probably won’t be around in 14 years, and even if they are, most of Congress is wealthy enough to not have to worry about paying for a hospital visit (cough cough, insider trading, cough cough).
Also, in a report from last June, the CBO estimated that the Social Security trust fund would be depleted by 2033 and after that time would only be able to pay 77% of benefits. 2033, for those counting, is only seven years away! Ironically, while Republican votes and choices have led to this impending fiscal cliff for senior citizens, between 51-58% of seniors vote Republican (the specific number depends on which age cohort you’re looking at).
Hopefully everyone is saving their tax cuts now; unless some boring and likely unpopular legislation and taxation happens in a jiffy, you’re going to be needing that extra money in 7 to 14 years. As for us millennials, we’ve known for years that there won’t be Medicare or Social Security around for us when we hit 65, at least not in any truly useful, recognizable form. Now, the accountants of Congress seem to have confirmed it.