With the first NFL game of the 2026 season still more than five months away, the New England Patriots have already drawn several comparisons to the Washington Commanders of a year ago.
Like the Patriots, the 2025 Commanders were coming off the high of a shocking season fueled by a new coach and a surging young quarterback. They seemed set up for success for the next decade.
Instead, the Commanders crashed, going 5-12 as young QB Jayden Daniels played just seven games due to injury. Now, they serve as a warning to other teams, including the Patriots.
What lessons can be learned about Washington’s fall from an NFC Championship Game appearance in the 2024 season? Perhaps more importantly, how realistic is it to think New England could be headed for a similar course correction?
Let’s drill down and compare the 2026 Patriots and 2025 Commanders.
Why the 2026 Pats could be like the 2025 Commanders
The similarities between the two teams are striking, especially in their preceding seasons. Both the 2024 Commanders and 2025 Patriots had first-year veteran leaders — Dan Quinn and Mike Vrabel — who leaned on their previous experience as a head coach elsewhere. Both had young quarterbacks — Daniels and Drake Maye — who drastically outplayed expectations and lifted rosters that otherwise wouldn’t have been championship contenders. And, yes, both had easy schedules by virtue of their teams finishing last in their divisions the previous season.
Everyone knows the Patriots had one of the easiest schedules in recent NFL history last season. The combined winning percentage of their opponents was .391, by far the lowest in the league. In 2024, the Commanders’ opponents had a winning percentage of .436, the NFL’s second-easiest schedule.
So both teams benefited from a relatively easy path in the regular season. The schedule got harder for the Commanders in 2025, as it will for the Patriots this fall.
Injuries — or the general lack of them — also played a huge role in the teams’ respective successes. In 2024, the Commanders had the fifth-lowest AGL (adjusted games lost) metric in the league. In 2025, the Patriots had the lowest number in the NFL. It’s logical to assume there will be some regression to the mean, as there was for Washington in 2025.
But the biggest reason for each team’s success was the quarterback play. Daniels, who was 23 for most of his first season, put together one of the best rookie quarterback seasons in NFL history on the way to being named the NFL’s Offensive Rookie of the Year. Maye, who was 23 last season, had one of the better Year 2 campaigns in recent memory, finishing second in league MVP voting.
So perhaps it’s fair to reason that Daniels was due for a sophomore slump (or, at least, a minor regression) last season after such a surprisingly productive rookie year. It’s not unfair to wonder if Maye could be headed for something similar this season.
Both teams were also able to keep their core coaching staffs in place, which is a rare feat for a team that comes out of nowhere to win. Quinn retained his offensive, defensive and special teams coordinators. Vrabel is returning Josh McDaniels, Zak Kuhr (with Terrell Williams now the assistant head coach) and Jeremy Springer. (Of note: That similarity seems like a positive. But Quinn has since fired both his offensive and defensive coordinators following Washington’s struggles in 2025.)
So, to summarize, both teams found success because of an easy schedule, a relative lack of injuries and better-than-expected quarterback play. But all three of those factors are difficult to sustain from year to year.
Jayden Daniels threw for 3,568 yards and 25 touchdowns against just nine interceptions while leading the Commanders to the NFC Championship Game as a rookie in 2024. (Scott Taetsch / Getty Images)
Why the 2026 Pats probably won’t be like the 2025 Commanders
While there are plenty of reasons the Commanders struggled last season, the most important were the injuries Daniels sustained, which allowed him to play in only seven games.
Sure, injuries can happen to any football player, but Daniels always seemed more at risk of injuries than Maye. When they were two of the top three quarterbacks in the 2024 NFL Draft, Dane Brugler wrote this of Daniels in “The Beast”: “Slender bone structure with lean features and limited growth potential.” Later, he suggested that Daniels “needs to better protect his body to stay durable in the NFL.” On the other hand, Maye, he wrote, is “built well with prototypical size and room to continue filling out.”
In other words, Maye seems less likely to incur the kinds of injuries that derailed Daniels a year ago, given the size difference between the two. That’s one big reason the Patriots’ 2026 season should be different from the Commanders’ 2025 campaign.
The other massive difference is in roster construction. The Commanders signed four new starters in free agency last year, the same number as the Patriots this year. Of the Commanders’ new starters, three were at least 30 when the season ended. Of the Patriots’ four new starters, only safety Kevin Byard will be over 30 when the 2026 season ends.
That leaves out another key difference. The Commanders wanted to retain much of their roster that overachieved the year before, which meant re-signing linebacker Bobby Wagner and tight end Zach Ertz, each of whom was entering his age-35 season.
Beyond that, the Commanders wanted to seize on the success of their 2024 season by leveraging draft capital to bring in talented but aging veterans. They sent out four net draft picks (three of which were in the first four rounds) to acquire Laremy Tunsil, who was 31 last season, and Deebo Samuel, who was 29.
So far, the Patriots have been hesitant to give up draft capital for aging players, including sitting out at the trade deadline last season. But while that’s a difference for now, it may not be for long. The Patriots had serious conversations about trading for A.J. Brown, who will turn 29 this summer, and could circle back to that deal in June, when the Philadelphia Eagles would be more willing to part with Brown.
Conclusion
The comparisons between these two teams exist for a reason. Both put together surprising runs on the backs of incredible (and largely unprecedented for their age) quarterback play under a new head coach. The commonalities are plentiful.
But the Patriots have so far been hesitant to add the number of aging veterans the Commanders added last season. And there’s every reason to think Maye will avoid the sorts of injuries that slowed Daniels in 2025.
Some regression would be natural for the Patriots next season. But if Maye stays healthy, the Patriots of 2026 shouldn’t fall as hard as the Commanders of 2025.