HOUSTON — With an owner claiming their championship window “will always be open,” the Houston Astros must develop new players to maintain it. Trades, poor draft positioning and a lack of first-round or second-round picks in 2020 and 2021 have cratered the farm system, testing Jim Crane’s theory that this window will never close. Before the season began, The Athletic’s Keith Law ranked Houston’s farm system 28th out of 30 teams.
Here are nine Astros prospects to keep an eye on as the minor-league season begins Friday. First-year Astros farm director Sam Niedorf offered insight on most of them during a recent appearance on the “Crush City Territory” podcast. Below are Niedorf’s comments and the prospects’ preseason rankings, according to Law.
Kevin Alvarez, OF
Age: 18 | B/T: L/L | Where he’ll start: Single-A Fayetteville | Where he’s ranked: No. 13
Alvarez arrived stateside and turned 18 in January. Two months later, he hit fifth in a major-league spring training game. Signed for $2 million during the last international signing period, Alvarez profiles as the next in Houston’s long line of Cuban success stories.
From Niedorf: “The first thing that stands out is the approach — the mature approach at the plate, the ability to control the strike zone at a really high clip and make contact at a really high clip. He really takes advantage of what the pitcher gives him, which has been the most impressive part. He’s a super impressive young man with a really talented approach. It’s the things that happen off the field that are more impressive: the routine in the weight room, the training room, how he takes care of his body. He’s a special, special talent.”
“We’ve run him out in center field. He’s been really good out there. He’s not a burner by nature, but he makes all the plays that he needs to. The arm has continued to improve over the course of the past couple months. He’s a really solid defender. I think the calling card is, obviously, what he does at the plate. But we’ll run him out at center field this season wherever he may go, and he’ll get every chance to stay out there as his career progresses.”
Xavier Neyens, 3B/SS
Age: 19 | B/T: L/R | Where he’ll start: Single-A Fayetteville | Where he’s ranked: No. 3
When he’s not biding his time as a barber, Neyens is bouncing between shortstop and third base while preparing for his first professional season. The Astros will let him play both positions at Single-A Fayetteville, where Neyens will team with Alvarez to comprise a compelling lineup worth monitoring all season.
From Niedorf: “The arm is real. The arm is going to play from the left side. There’s plays he makes in the 5-6 hole that you’re going to see on “SportsCenter” one day. The athleticism for how big the guy is is pretty impressive. The lateral footspeed has been a pleasant surprise to me.”
“It’s a patient hitter. He’s going to take his walks. He’s going to do damage on pitches in and around the zone. That’s been the most impressive part to me. If you leave spin up early or late, he has the ability to punish it. I think what’s equally as impressive is his ability to use all fields. We’ve seen balls on the back fields over the left-center-field wall. The ball just jumps. The (exit velocities) are ranging from 105 to 109. It’s special. You watch his BP and it kind of attracts you to that field.”
Walker Janek, C
Age: 23 | B/T: R/R | Where he’ll start: Double-A Corpus Christi | Where he’s ranked: No. 6
Janek, Houston’s first-round pick in the 2024 draft, turned heads during a brief stint in major-league spring training. With César Salazar’s removal from the 40-man roster in favor of 35-year-old Christian Vázquez, the Astros need a step forward from Janek this season, perhaps to prove capable of handling a major-league job sooner than later.
From Niedorf: “The defense, that’s the calling card. The arm strength, the ability to call a game, the ability to understand pitchers’ strengths as it relates to hitters’ weaknesses. It’s just an advanced approach from a mental standpoint and physical standpoint behind the plate. The offense was really impressive. His ability to take the walk when he needs to, but also inflict damage on the baseball when he gets his pitch, he showed he could do that all camp.”
“I think we all know that his time to be back (on the major-league radar) is going to be relatively quick. We expect it to be a quick path, and we think his talent on the offensive and defensive side is going to take him there before too long.”
Ethan Frey played all three outfield positions over six games with the Astros during spring training. (Rich Storry / Getty Images)
Ethan Frey, OF
Age: 22 | B/T: R/R | Where he’ll start: High-A Asheville | Where he’s ranked: No. 4
Frey’s success at SEC powerhouse LSU portended a quick ascension in pro ball. A .904 OPS in 100 at-bats for Single-A Fayetteville last season only accentuated it. Injuries limited Frey to a designated hitter role in college, but during the draft process, he surprised Astros officials with his athleticism and is making the transition to center field as a professional.
From Niedorf: “That’s been a pleasant surprise, to say the least. You look at the player in a vacuum and it’s a big, physical frame and maybe doesn’t look like your prototypical center fielder, but the routes, the reaction time, the arm strength, we have a ton of confidence it’s going to play out there. He’s going to get every chance to play center field. What we’ve seen from him this spring gives us every indication that he can roll out there for the foreseeable future. … I think you look at him and say, ‘This is probably a corner guy,’ but how he moves, the reaction times, the arm strength, the reads off of the bat, the pre-pitch (movement) all lines up and really what we’ve seen from him gives us every belief that he can play center field.”
Joseph Sullivan, OF
Age: 23 | B/T: L/L | Where he’ll start: Double-A Corpus Christi | Where he’s ranked: No. 5
The grandson of former Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback Pat Sullivan, Joseph earned his first invitation to major-league spring training after an impressive showing in the Arizona Fall League. Sullivan’s base running, athleticism and strike zone discipline have long intrigued team officials. Houston’s major-league outfield remains unsettled, and general manager Dana Brown tends to fast-track prospects, making Sullivan a candidate to contribute at the major-league level this season.
From Niedorf: “He’s a tough out. He’s a gritty player. There’s power in there. He can also play center field; he’ll play the corners as well, but he impacts the game in all three facets. Close to 50 (stolen) bags last year, that’s the goal we’ve set for him this year. I think he’ll get there quick. He’s a menace on the bases — the first-to-thirds, the second-to-homes, the ability to understand pitcher timing and catcher arm strength. He prepares at a really high level, which has been really exciting on the bases. He had a really good showing in major-league camp.”
James Hicks, RHP
Age: 24 | B/T: R/R | Where he’ll start: Double-A Corpus Christi | Where he’s ranked: N/A
Hicks parlayed a strong Arizona Fall League performance into a start in Houston’s Spring Breakout game.
From Niedorf: “James is a sleeper. … It’s the kitchen sink approach and the ability to pitch to both sides of the plate. Sinker to righties is lethal, sweeper and the changeup. He’s got all options to both sides and throws a ton of strikes as a nice complement to the arsenal. The power has ticked up this spring, which is a nice surprise for him. We’re hopeful and confident that’s going to maintain throughout the season.”
Bryce Mayer, RHP
Age: 24 | B/T: R/R | Where he’ll start: Double-A Corpus Christi | Where he’s ranked: No. 8
Mayer and fellow right-hander Ethan Pecko are two of Brown’s favorite pitching prospects in the upper minor leagues. Pecko will be slowed to begin the season while recovering from an injury, leaving Mayer a path to showcase his potential readiness to impact the major-league team. Mayer throws five pitches and spent spring training refining his changeup.
From Niedorf: “The thing with Bryce is the intentionality to his identity. He knows himself really well. Monitors his workload from a daily throwing standpoint at a really high level. Just a special individual. Goes about his work in a really silent manner, but when he gets on the mound, he flips that switch, and his ability to take it to the opponents is real.”
Caden Powell, OF
Age: 22 | B/T: R/R | Where he’ll start: High-A Asheville | Where he’s ranked: N/A
Drafted as an infielder in 2024 out of Seminole State College, Powell is now a full-time outfielder with some of the most talked-about power in Houston’s system. Niedorf identified him as one of the system’s most undertalked-about prospects.
From Niedorf, on moving Powell to the outfield: “We really just wanted to let the speed play, let the arm lengthen out a little bit and free up the athleticism, which I think he’s done in spring training. At the plate, it’s real power. It’s probably the most raw power we have in the system. There is some punch in there. He’ll walk a little bit, but when he gets on the bases, he’s a true plus-plus runner. The (move to the outfield) hopefully frees up the mind a little bit to be himself in the box and let the athleticism play. He’s someone that impressed a lot of us this camp.”
Nick Potter, RHP
Age: 22 | B/T: R/R | Where he’ll start: Single-A Fayetteville | Where he’s ranked: N/A
Potter was drafted last June and hasn’t pitched in a professional game. He worked primarily as a reliever at Wichita State, but the Astros plan to stretch him out as a starter. Potter’s fastball touched 99 mph during minor-league spring training and, more importantly, the 6-foot-4 righty held that velocity throughout longer outings.