The NHL playoff picture remains as murky as ever: a dogfight in the East and a pillow fight in the West. Some things are settled, but many still aren’t, and that’s left a lot to worry about over the season’s final 10 games.
Maybe “worry” isn’t the right word. Some teams will be worried, no doubt, but for many it’s a time to focus and hone in on some weaknesses heading into the postseason. And for the non-playoff teams, there’s an eye toward the future that will be the primary focal point, no matter how much of a slog the last few games may be.
Here’s one thing that teams will have to focus on over the last few weeks.
1. Colorado Avalanche, 48-13-10
Last week: 1
Sean: 1
Dom: 1
Usually, we’d call out Colorado’s power play as the primary focal point, but to the likely dismay of many, that looks to have woken up. Since the trade deadline, the Avalanche have had a top-10 power play.
So, now what for the NHL’s best team? That would probably be getting Mackenzie Blackwood rolling again. He came into the season as the team’s presumed starter, but has struggled since the break with a GSAx of minus-3.4 in nine games. That’s a bottom-10 mark. Against Winnipeg, Blackwood got the win, but was just average in doing so.
2. Dallas Stars, 43-18-11
Last week: 2
Sean: 2
Dom: 2
Good as the Stars are, they also had two glaring needs once deadline season arrived: middle-six scoring and, as always, a right-side defenseman. To that end, they did well to acquire Michael Bunting and Tyler Myers, but both have gotten off to brutal starts.
Bunting has one goal, the Stars have been outscored 7-2 with him on the ice and his expected goal share isn’t much better. Dallas scratched him against the Islanders on Thursday. Myers, meanwhile, is getting third-pair minutes with Lian Bichsel, and the Stars are losing them.
3. Buffalo Sabres, 44-20-8
Last week: 3
Sean: 3
Dom: 3
Fun fact: the almighty Sabres are 29-6-3 without Conor Timmins in the lineup and 15-14-5 with him. Sure, that’s not entirely his fault, but Timmins’ Net Rating per 82 this season of minus-12 doesn’t speak to a player who’s helping. Zach Metsa was just sent down to the AHL, Luke Schenn isn’t any better and Michael Kesselring hasn’t jelled with the team amid an injury-plagued season. Buffalo has 10 games to figure out who its Game 1 right defenseman is on the third pair, and the options aren’t ideal.
4. Carolina Hurricanes, 45-20-6
Last week: 4
Sean: 4
Dom: 4
As great a story as goaltender Brandon Bussi was for the Hurricanes earlier this season, he’s been a problem for weeks. In 10 starts since Jan. 24, Bussi has posted a sub-.900 save percentage nine times. In that span, he’s at .860 overall with nearly six goals allowed above expected; only Edmonton’s Tristan Jarry has been worse. Credit to Carolina for going 7-3-0 in those games, but something has to give.
5. Tampa Bay Lightning, 44-21-6
Last week: 5
Sean: 5
Dom: 5
After stumbling out of the post-Olympic break, the Lightning are back on track as the favorite to come out of the East. But there’s still one major red flag with the team’s recent play and that’s the penalty kill. The 11.9 GA/60 the Lightning have allowed since the deadline is the league’s worst mark.
6. Minnesota Wild, 41-20-12
Last week: 6
Sean: 6
Dom: 6
We’re going to assume that Filip Gustavsson will start Game 1 for the Wild, wherever it may be (probably in Dallas). He was solid in a 2-1 win over the Stars earlier this week, making 28 saves. It’s worth noting, though, that Jesper Wallstedt has regained some of his early-season form, putting up a .918 save percentage and saving nearly four goals above expected since the trade deadline. That at least makes the debate a bit more interesting.
7. Montreal Canadiens, 40-21-10
Last week: 9
Sean: 7
Dom: 7
Since the Olympic break, only one team has allowed more xGA/60 while penalty killing than Montreal’s 9.33: the New York Rangers. That’s far from ideal company and something the Canadiens need to clean up in a hurry. A potential date against Tampa Bay’s power play in the first two rounds would be a scary sight.
8. Columbus Blue Jackets, 38-23-11
Last week: 7
Sean: 8
Dom: 8
All eyes in Columbus are on a playoff spot, something the Blue Jackets still have a high chance of securing despite a narrow loss to Montreal on Tuesday. Few teams have been playing better hockey than Columbus, but special teams could use some work. The Blue Jackets have allowed a ton of chances lately on the penalty kill and the power play has been below average.
9. Pittsburgh Penguins, 36-20-16
Last week: 8
Sean: 9
Dom: 9
The Penguins’ 4-3 shootout win over Ottawa on Thursday night was huge for plenty of reasons. The biggest: it kept them ahead of both Columbus and the Islanders in the Metropolitan Division.
Ben Kindel’s play was a highlight, as well — the 18-year-old forward put up an assist and solid five-on-five play before scoring the shootout winner. His play had dipped in his 15 post-Olympic games (five points, actual and expected goal shares in the low 40s). Pittsburgh will need the upswing to continue.
10. Ottawa Senators, 38-24-10
Last week: 11
Sean: 10
Dom: 10
Ottawa’s blue line has been decimated. First Jake Sanderson, now Thomas Chabot? Ouch.
The Senators’ primary objective will be surviving their massive injury troubles on the back end. But born from that is one bright spot: getting to see what Carter Yakemchuk can do in the big leagues. So far, so good with two points in his debut.
11. Boston Bruins, 40-24-8
Last week: 10
Sean: 11
Dom: 12
Boston has 10 games remaining. Seven are against teams currently in playoff position, and another is against the Florida Panthers. It’s the toughest schedule in the league. Godspeed.
12. Anaheim Ducks, 41-27-4
Last week: 15
Sean: 12
Dom: 11
With the Ducks, it’s always going to be about defending. We thought new coach Joel Quenneville would right that ship, but that hasn’t been the case with a 2.81 xGA/60 on the season. For context, that’s worse than the Leafs. Things have only gotten leakier since the break, with a league-worst 3.25 xGA/60.
13. New York Islanders, 41-27-5
Last week: 12
Sean: 10
Dom: 13
Ilya Sorokin certainly looked like himself in a 26-save, 2-1 win over the Stars on Thursday night, and the Isles will need more of that going forward; they’d gotten bottom-10 goaltending since the Olympic break (.899 save percentage). Backup David Rittich was the primary culprit, but Sorokin hadn’t been great, either.
14. Detroit Red Wings, 38-25-8
Last week: 13
Sean: 14
Dom: 14
March Madness: college basketball tournament or the annual state of Red Wings fans as they watch their team crash out of a playoff spot? The Red Wings, out on points percentage, will be in a fight to make it with tough competition ahead. It’s time to bear down and make sure this simply doesn’t happen. Cleaning up a penalty kill that has sunk the team since the break would be a good start.
15. Philadelphia Flyers, 35-24-12
Last week: 18
Sean: 15
Dom: 15
We’ll go broad here: generating offense. Philadelphia’s expected goals per 60 since the break is 2.15 — worst in the NHL. The Flyers also have the second-worst power play. That they’re 7-2-1 in their last 10 and still on the periphery of the playoff race is wild.
16. Edmonton Oilers, 36-28-9
Last week: 16
Sean: 17
Dom: 16
Since the break, Connor Ingram has put up an .883 save percentage, 14 points below the league average, and a negative GSAx. He remains, by a country mile, Edmonton’s best option in net. It’s goaltending. It’s always goaltending.
17. Utah Mammoth, 37-30-6
Last week: 14
Sean: 17
Dom: 18
The Mammoth came back from the break as a mediocre five-on-five team; since then, they’re 21st in expected goals and 22nd in actual ones. Production from somebody other than Dylan Guenther and Clayton Keller would be nice.
18. Washington Capitals, 36-28-9
Last week: 19
Sean: 19
Dom: 17
Since the trade deadline, the Capitals have a bottom-five power play that’s scored just 4.2 goals per 60. It’s been a problem all year, and it’s only become worse of late. A potential solution? Let’s see what Cole Hutson can do on the top unit.
19. Vegas Golden Knights, 32-26-15
Last week: 17
Sean: 18
Dom: 19
A lot of folks would say Vegas needs to focus on protecting its goaltenders better, given how porous Adin Hill et al have been. But an even bigger problem has emerged, and that’s the team’s scoring completely drying up since the break. That’s not for a lack of chances; the Golden Knights are generating 2.99 xGF/60, but have just 1.86 GF/60 to show for it. That’s the third-worst mark in the league, driven by a league-worst shooting percentage of 6.5 percent. It’s time to put some pucks in the net.
20. Nashville Predators, 34-29-9
Last week: 23
Sean: 20
Dom: 21
The wild-card race in the West is so brutal that the Predators have stumbled into the final spot despite a minus-22 goal differential. In what is shaping up to be a real pillow fight, why not the Predators? One thing they need to do in order to maintain that spot, though, is control the puck more. Since the break, the Predators have a 44 percent xG rate, the league’s third-worst mark.
21. New Jersey Devils, 37-32-2
Last week: 21
Sean: 21
Dom: 20
New Jersey’s season is already lost, but some hope has started to emerge over the last month. The focus to close the season: how much of that can translate to next season?
To start, Jack Hughes looks like himself again with 21 points in his last 13 games. That’s a huge plus. A bigger story, though, might be the development of Luke Hughes and Simon Nemec, who are finally looking like the blue line cornerstones they were billed as at the draft. Luke has an average Game Score of 1.14 since the break, while Nemec is at a respectable 0.68.
22. Los Angeles Kings, 29-25-18
Last week: 20
Sean: 22
Dom: 22
Since the break, only Detroit has rolled a less effective penalty kill than the Kings, who are allowing 11.5 short-handed goals against per 60. Credit to them for spending relatively minimal time in the box, but sheesh. If they’re going to stay involved, that’ll have to change.
23. Seattle Kraken, 32-29-10
Last week: 24
Sean: 23
Dom: 23
It took a bit, but the real Kraken have shown up; red flags that have existed all year, combined with freshly poor goaltending, have led to a 4-9-1 record since the break. It’s probably best to steer into the skid and try to add another premium prospect, but the damage on that front might have already been done — they’re still 22nd in points percentage.
24. Florida Panthers, 35-33-3
Last week: 25
Sean: 24
Dom: 24
The smart teams put top-10 pick protection to hedge on draft picks more than one year out, and the Panthers are showing exactly why. Florida has played more games than any team over the last three seasons and has been decimated by injuries; the Panthers could use the year off. Now they need to make this vacation count by locking in a spot in the league’s bottom 10 in order to get their 2026 pick back from the Blackhawks. Not every team has that foresight.
25. St. Louis Blues, 30-30-11
Last week: 26
Sean: 25
Dom: 25
Their power play has been the worst in the league since the break, which is putting a bit of a damper on Jimmy Snuggerud’s attempt to hit the 20-goal mark in his first full NHL season. That’d be nice.
26. San Jose Sharks, 32-31-7
Last week: 22
Sean: 26
Dom: 26
We love what we’ve gotten from Macklin Celebrini and the Sharks. They should feel great about themselves. Respectfully, though: keep stacking those losses. A few more will put them back in the bottom five and further secure another shot at a top draft pick. We’re not concerned about their confidence cratering down the stretch, either. They’ve banked plenty of that.
27. Winnipeg Jets, 30-30-12
Last week: 27
Sean: 27
Dom: 27
Before the Olympics, Connor Hellebuyck was playing his worst hockey in years. Then he played the greatest game of his life to win gold. Since, he’s been pure mid. Given the state of the West wild-card race, it’s a shame that Hellebuyck couldn’t rise to his usual level. The Jets are 8-4-4 since the break, and while that’s fine, prime Hellebuyck definitely would’ve squeaked a few more points out of that stretch to get them closer to the second wild-card spot.
28. Toronto Maple Leafs, 31-29-13
Last week: 29
Sean: 28
Dom: 28
Must-win game? That’s a loss. Must-lose game? That’s a win. No matter which direction the pressure points, the Leafs have an uncanny ability to disappoint a majority of their fan base. The quest for the bottom five isn’t over yet, but the Leafs face another must-lose game on Saturday against St. Louis. Can this team finally rise to the occasion?
29. Chicago Blackhawks, 27-32-13
Last week: 28
Sean: 29
Dom: 29
The Blackhawks are by no means a finished product, but Anton Frondell’s arrival in the lineup signals something: their best shot yet at finding an elite talent to pair, long-term, with Connor Bedard. The two connected for a quasi-fluky goal on Thursday night, when Frondell’s wrap-around attempt wound up on Bedard’s stick.
30. New York Rangers, 28-35-9
Last week: 30
Sean: 31
Dom: 31
J.T. Miller hasn’t scored a goal since Jan. 26. A season-ending surge would probably only annoy Rangers fans, but he isn’t going anywhere. Might as well try to finish things on some sort of positive note.
31. Calgary Flames, 30-34-8
Last week: 31
Sean: 31
Dom: 31
We’ve got one just question for this final stretch of Flames hockey: who exactly is a core piece for this team’s future? Zayne Parekh is an obvious one, and he’s been fine as a rookie. Dustin Wolf should still be the guy in net, too. But, uh, is anyone else going to step up and show they’re a part of this team’s future?
32. Vancouver Canucks, 21-42-8
Last week: 32
Sean: 32
Dom: 32
We’re going to echo what Thomas Drance said about the Canucks earlier this week: if a lost season offers anything, it’s low-stakes opportunities for players to test their ceilings. Zeev Buium and Tom Willander, Vancouver’s best young defensemen, should be in that mode for the rest of the schedule — and the results, thus far, have been mixed.