Derek CartyMar 28, 2026, 10:45 AM ET
CloseDerek Carty is a contributing writer for fantasy baseball at ESPN. Derek is a four-time LABR and one-time Tout Wars champion.
Multiple Authors
All the prop bet recommendations, betting projections and trends are generated by THE BAT X, a system that I’ve created using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing and more. Betting projections for every player, team and game can be found at EV Analytics.
Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to place a $1 wager 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
Other resources: Fantasy lineup advice | WS odds | Fantasy Buzz
Saturday’s top batter prop bets
Pete Crow-Armstrong | UNDER 1.5 TB (-110)
Projection: 61% chance of this bet hitting, with a $17.49 EV
One reason to bet this: Crow-Armstrong is at a disadvantage facing the league’s fifth-deepest RF fences; given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 39.9% rate (97th percentile).
Nico Hoerner | UNDER 1.5 H+R+RBI (+113)
Projection: 54% chance of this bet hitting, with a $15.60 EV
One reason to bet this: My system projects Wrigley Field as the fifth-worst field in baseball for boosting offensive stats to right-handed batters.
Bo Naylor | UNDER 0.5 H (+112)
Projection: 54% chance of this bet hitting, with a $14.54 EV
One reason to bet this: 10% of the time that Naylor has started against a right-handed starter since the beginning of last season, he has been replaced by a pinch-hitter.
Saturday’s top pitcher prop bets
Jacob deGrom | UNDER 6.5 K (-150)
Projection: 74% chance of this bet hitting, with a $34.38 EV
One reason to bet this: The projection system expects deGrom to be limited in this game, projecting a maximum of 75 pitches.
Tyler Glasnow | UNDER 5.5 K (+105)
Projection: 58% chance of this bet hitting, with an $18.39 EV
One reason to bet this: In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather conditions forecasts for the second-most favorable hitting conditions on the schedule today.
Michael Wacha | UNDER 3.5 K (+127)
Projection: 52% chance of this bet hitting, with an $18.22 EV
One reason to bet this: Wacha didn’t have his best stuff when it came to striking batters out in his previous outing, and compiled two strikeouts.
THE BAT X: Team Projections
PITCHER
OPP.
MONEY
LINE
PROJ.
WIN%
VALUE %
RUN
LINE
OV
VALUE %
GAME
TOTAL
O/U
xRUNS
VALUE %
Joe Boyle
@ STL
-108
47.5
-7.21
-1.0
+122
-7.21
7.5
O +102
6.78
-21.32
Michael McGreevy
vs. TB
-112
52.5
-1.91
+1.0
-159
-1.91
U -122
11.09
Miles Mikolas
@ CHC
+194
36.0
4.11
+1.5
-108
4.11
8.5
O -120
8.86
-12.57
Cade Horton
vs. WSH
-240
64.0
-8.50
-1.5
-112
-8.50
U +100
4.62
Jeffrey Springs
@ TOR
+159
35.1
-10.62
+1.5
-131
-10.62
8.0
O -118
8.46
-9.64
Dylan Cease
vs. ATH
-193
64.9
-0.58
-1.5
+109
-0.58
U -102
1.18
Taj Bradley
@ BAL
+139
42.4
1.41
+1.0
-112
1.41
7.5
O -115
7.88
-10.32
Kyle Bradish
vs. MIN
-168
57.6
-8.16
-1.0
-116
-8.16
U -105
1.58
Jacob deGrom
@ PHI
-108
50.4
-1.87
-1.0
+119
-1.87
7.0
O -120
7.91
0.80
Aaron Nola
vs. TEX
-112
49.6
-7.16
+1.0
-156
-7.16
U +100
-9.96
Michael Lorenzen
@ MIA
+159
39.4
1.48
+1.0
+108
1.48
7.5
O +102
8.12
0.98
Eury Perez
vs. COL
-193
60.6
-7.67
-1.0
-140
-7.67
U -122
-9.00
Sonny Gray
@ CIN
-143
58.1
0.43
-1.0
-117
0.43
7.5
O -114
7.51
-15.77
Brady Singer
vs. BOS
+119
41.9
-10.43
+1.0
-111
-10.43
U -106
7.14
Mitch Keller
@ NYM
+149
36.2
-10.38
+1.0
-101
-10.38
7.5
O -108
7.44
-14.47
David Peterson
vs. PIT
-181
63.8
-0.63
-1.0
-128
-0.63
U -112
5.22
Reid Detmers
@ HOU
+123
44.7
-0.63
+1.0
-124
-0.63
9.0
O -101
9.24
-10.13
Cristian Javier
vs. LAA
-149
55.3
-7.35
-1.0
-105
-7.35
U -120
0.54
Sean Burke
@ MIL
+159
44.3
15.10
+1.5
-131
15.10
8.0
O -118
8.04
-16.74
Chad Patrick
vs. CWS
-194
55.7
-15.80
-1.5
+109
-15.80
U -102
8.78
Michael Wacha
@ ATL
+129
44.6
1.81
+1.0
-119
1.81
8.5
O -108
8.87
-8.11
Reynaldo Lopez
vs. KC
-156
55.5
-8.86
-1.0
-109
-8.86
U -112
-1.02
Will Warren
@ SF
-131
55.4
-1.45
-1.0
-104
-1.45
8.5
O -112
8.98
-8.01
Tyler Mahle
vs. NYY
+109
44.6
-7.81
+1.0
-125
-7.81
U -108
-1.01
Jack Flaherty
@ SD
-115
54.1
2.25
-1.0
+111
2.25
8.0
O -116
8.36
-11.27
Randy Vasquez
vs. DET
-105
46.0
-11.54
+1.0
-145
-11.54
U -104
2.69
Eduardo Rodriguez
@ LAD
+203
35.1
3.32
+1.5
-105
3.32
9.0
O -105
9.73
-2.56
Tyler Glasnow
vs. ARI
-252
64.9
-7.95
-1.5
-115
-7.95
U -115
-6.35
Joey Cantillo
@ SEA
+153
40.9
3.88
+1.0
+102
3.88
7.0
O -105
7.05
-7.11
Bryan Woo
vs. CLE
-186
59.1
-9.37
-1.0
-133
-9.37
U -115
-2.00
Top betting trends
Note: While trends can be fun to examine and provide a snapshot of how teams have been doing, please be aware that past results are never fully predictive of future performance. These may be some of the strongest current trends, but they are not necessarily recommendations for today’s action. Early in the season, these trends may extend back to last year’s play.
Minnesota Twins Game Total UNDER
The Twins’ team totals have gone under in nine straight games. (+9.00 Units / 92% ROI). Current odds: 7.5 @ -105
Toronto Blue Jays 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline
In 12 of their last 20 games, the Blue Jays have been leading after the first five innings. (12-4-4) (+9.85 Units / 41% ROI). Current odds: -195
Washington Nationals 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline
The Nationals have been leading in three of their last five away games after the first five innings. (+4.15 Units / 83% ROI). Current odds: +165