Bruno Mars is a Grammy golden child, a hands-down favorite of the Recording Academy, with 16 trophies off 36 nominations, including multiple in Song, Record and Album of the Year. All four of his eligible studio albums, whether solo or with Silk Sonic, have won at least one Grammy, and he has also had winning collaborations with artists like Mark Ronson, Adele, and Lady Gaga. This year, Mars is hoping for another successful run with his fourth solo studio album, The Romantic, his follow-up to 2016’s 24K Magic. But could the mixed reception to The Romantic be its downfall come Grammy time?
At first blush, The Romantic appears to be an unqualified success, shooting to No. 1 on the Billboard 200 and spawning two No. 1 singles so far, “I Just Might” and “Risk It All.” But digging deeper, there are signs that this Mars era might not be as inevitable as its predecessors.
Take the lead single, “I Just Might.” The song is currently in the Top 10 of the Hot 100, thanks to strong radio play, but it has already fallen out of the Streaming Songs Top 10 after just 10 weeks — a signal that fans no longer have the track in heavy rotation. The follow-up, “Risk It All,” has the opposite issue — strong on streaming, but slow on radio — and fell out of the top slot on the global charts after just one week. Compare that to his recent string of hits. “Leave the Door Open,” “Apt.,” and especially “Die With a Smile” all had longer runs in the Top 5 and remained consistent on domestic and global charts. Likewise, The Romantic managed just a single week at No. 1 before sliding out; whereas 24K Magic moved more than 200,000 first-week units in 2016. The Romantic managed just 186,000.
Critics haven’t been overly enthused by the package, which has received some of the roughest reviews of his career. Mars felt the need to respond after a viral social media critique suggested he hadn’t evolved as an artist, but many critics had a similar assessment. Pitchfork’s Brittany Spanos called the album “sleek and professional” but also “risk-averse.” It has a 66 rating on Metacritic, ranking as the 54th best album of the year.
Given that the Grammys are all about perception and momentum, this could be a detriment to Mars’ awards hopes. It’s rare that an album with a Metacritic score in that range has been competitive. Even when albums with similar ratings have made it in to the Pop Vocal Album field — like Ed Sheeran’s -, Justin Bieber’s Swag, and Coldplay’s Music of the Spheres — they were all ranked low in the odds and not seriously considered a threat to the favorites and eventual winners.
The question is whether the Recording Academy can quit Mars. There is a considerable number of voters who like his throwback sound, rich old-school arrangements, and crisp production anchored on live instrumentation. And the Grammys are peer-voted awards, not critic-voted. That should be enough for him to get key nominations. Per the latest Gold Derby prediction data, Mars is favored to pick up nominations for Album of the Year, and both Record of the Year and Song of the Year for “I Just Might.”
Album of the Year Record of the Year Song of the Year New Artist
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
16.
17.
18.
19.
20.
21.
22.
23.
24.
25.
26.
27.
28.
29.
30.
31.
32.
33.
34.
35.
36.
37.
38.
39.
40.
41.
42.
43.
44.
45.
46.
47.
48.
49.
50.
51.
Niall Horan
ABC
52.
NEW YORK, NEW YORK – DECEMBER 09: David Byrne attends the “The Testament of Ann Lee” New York special screening at Crosby Hotel on December 09, 2025 in New York City. (Photo by Valerie Terranova/Getty Images for Searchlight Pictures)
Valerie Terranova/Getty Images
53.
demi lovato sq abc
ABC/Randy Holmes
54.
Blackpink sq
YG Entertainment
55.
LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA – FEBRUARY 1: Silvana Estrada attends Variety’s 2024 GRAMMY Celebration at Mes Amis on February 1, 2024 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Elyse Jankowski/Getty Images)
Elyse Jankowski/Getty Images
56.
death cab for cutie sq pmc
Fairchild Archive/Penske Media
57.
Dave Grohl of Foo Fighters
Andy Keilen for Rolling Stone
58.
Summer Walker
NBC
59.
illenium
imageSPACE / MEGA
60.
Zayn
Stephen Lovekin/Variety
61.
LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA – JUNE 30: (L-R) Leon Thomas III and Ty Dolla Sign attend the 2024 BET Awards at Peacock Theater on June 30, 2024 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Bennett Raglin/Getty Images for BET)
Bennett Raglin/Getty Images
62.
Ed Sheeran sq
Mark Surridge/Ed Sheeran
63.
Ari Lennox
Michael Buckner/Variety
64.
arlo parks
NBC
65.
big thief sq getty
Emma McIntyre/Getty Images for FYF
66.
celeste
ABC
67.
charlie puth sq pmc
Gilbert Flores for Variety
68.
daniel caesar sq pmc
Brian Friedman for Variety
69.
danny brown sq pmc
Coen Rees for Rolling Stone
70.
Madison McGaw/BFA/REX/Shutterstock
71.
don toliver sq pmc
Gilbert Flores for Billboard
72.
offset sq pmc
Christopher Polk for Variety
73.
FKA Twigs at the premiere of “The Crow” held at The Village East by Angelika on August 20, 2024 in New York City.
John Nacion/Variety
74.
khalid
Courtesy of Grace Pickering/Khalid
75.
NBC
76.
LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA – JANUARY 30: (FOR EDITORIAL USE ONLY) King Princess attends the 2026 MusiCares Person of the Year Honoring Mariah Carey at Los Angeles Convention Center on January 30, 2026 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Frazer Harrison/Getty Images)
Frazer Harrison/Getty Images
77.
the last dinner party
Leonn Ward
78.
LAS VEGAS, NEVADA – OCTOBER 08: The Alchemist attends BET Hip Hop Awards 2024 at Drai’s Beach Club – Nightclub at The Cromwell Las Vegas on October 08, 2024 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Mindy Small/Getty Images)
Mindy Small/Getty Images
79.
LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA – FEBRUARY 02: (FOR EDITORIAL USE ONLY) Madison Cunningham attends the 67th GRAMMY Awards on February 02, 2025 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Frazer Harrison/Getty Images)
Frazer Harrison/Getty Images
80.
megan moroney sq pmc
Christopher Polk for Variety
Album of the Year Record of the Year Song of the Year New Artist
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
PinkPantheress and Zara Larsson
7.
8.
Rosalia, Bjork, Yves Tumor
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
16.
17.
18.
19.
20.
21.
Rosalia, Yahritza y Su Esencia
22.
23.
24.
25.
26.
27.
28.
29.
30.
31.
32.
33.
34.
35.
36.
37.
38.
39.
40.
41.
42.
43.
44.
45.
46.
David Guetta, Teddy Swims, Tones and I
Album of the Year Record of the Year Song of the Year New Artist
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
PinkPantheress and Zara Larsson
8.
9.
10.
Rosalia, Bjork, Yves Tumor
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
16.
17.
18.
19.
20.
21.
Rosalia, Yahritza y Su Esencia
22.
23.
24.
25.
26.
David Guetta, Teddy Swims, Tones and I
27.
28.
29.
30.
31.
32.
33.
34.
35.
36.
37.
38.
39.
40.
41.
42.
43.
44.
45.
46.
But given the expanded demographics of the Recording Academy, with an influx of hipper, younger, more diverse members in recent years, there’s a chance Mars could see a rerun of the past few ceremonies. The monster hit “Die With a Smile” seemed like a shoo-in for Song of the Year in 2025, yet lost to Kendrick Lamar’s “Not Like Us.” This year, Mars’ big collab with Rosé on “Apt.” failed to win anything, losing even its genre category to Wicked’s “Defying Gravity,” which was considered a longshot.
Based on the current landscape, expect Mars to get a handful of nods, but don’t be surprised if he joins the recent batch of A-list artists who have left empty-handed despite big nomination hauls, like Sabrina Carpenter in 2026, Taylor Swift in 2025, Olivia Rodrigo in 2024, and Justin Bieber in 2022.