Fantasy baseball lineup advice and betting tips for Monday

Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. MLB betting tips for each day’s slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

Note: All information is accurate as of the time of publication. For updates, including what you might have missed from last night, as well as any breaking news that might impact today’s MLB slate, be sure to check out the latest fantasy baseball news.

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Pitchers to stream on Monday

Sean Manaea is one of the top overall plays, let alone streamers on Monday’s busy slate. The New York Mets open an interleague set in Queens against the Cleveland Guardians with Manaea getting the nod. The Guardians sport the fourth lowest wOBA versus left-handers, fueled by an above average strikeout rate.

One of the under-the-radar moves of the trade deadline was the San Diego Padres acquiring JP Sears from the Athletics in the Mason Miller deal. Sears flashed potential this season but was hurt by pitching in Sacramento, where he yielded 14 of his 23 home runs in just 47 2/3 innings. The long ball shouldn’t be as much of an issue in Petco Park, or Monday in Chase Field when the Padres visit the Arizona Diamondbacks. The home team traded Josh Naylor and Eugenio Suarez to the Seattle Mariners in separate deals, losing a lot of pop in the process.

The Houston Astros made a couple of moves to fortify their offense, but it didn’t help them much over the weekend as they plated just five runs in Fenway Park while losing all three games to the Boston Red Sox. The Astros stay on the road with an early week series in South Beach. The Miami Marlins opted to hold onto Sandy Alcantara, who will try to extend his scoreless innings streak. In two post-break starts, the righty posted 12 shutout frames. This is not the ideal setup for Houston to get back on track.

Pitchers to avoid on Monday

Over eight starts covering 46 1/3 innings before his last outing, Brandon Pfaadt posted a 3.50 ERA and 1.10 with 44 strikeouts. He earned the trust of fantasy managers in more than half of ESPN leagues. He struggled in his most recent effort, surrendering three homers to the Detroit Tigers and now faces another potent lineup with the San Diego Padres visiting the desert. It’s best to avoid the Diamondbacks right-hander for this home affair.

Today’s best matchups for pitchers

Today’s worst matchups for pitchers

Hitters to stream on MondayToday’s best matchups for hitters

Today’s worst matchups for hitters

Betting tips

Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.

Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.

Today’s top HR prop bets

Trent Grisham | OVER 0.5 HR (+500)
Projection: 19% chance of this bet hitting, with a $15.86 EV
One reason to bet this: Globe Life Field has the seventh-shortest average fence height among all MLB parks.

Jazz Chisholm Jr | OVER 0.5 HR (+600)
Projection: 16% chance of this bet hitting, with a $13.05 EV
One reason to bet this: Chisholm is in the 97th percentile for power via my projected version of expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances this year at 34.4.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr | OVER 0.5 HR (+325)
Projection: 26% chance of this bet hitting, with a $10.63 EV
One reason to bet this: My projection system sees Coors Field as the 10th-best field in the game for RHB home runs.

Today’s top pitcher prop bets

Erick Fedde | OVER 3.5 K (-125)
Projection: 64% chance of this bet hitting, with a $18.10 EV
One reason to bet this: This matchup is expected to have the third-best conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today.

Bailey Falter | UNDER 3.5 K (-115)
Projection: 58% chance of this bet hitting, with a $9.70 EV
One reason to bet this: According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this matchup will be the second-most suitable for hitting of all games today.

Jesus Luzardo | OVER 6.5 K (-120)
Projection: 58% chance of this bet hitting, with a $7.69 EV
One reason to bet this: Luzardo’s 95.8-mph fastball velocity this year is in the 88th percentile of all starting pitchers.

Today’s top YRFI/NRFI bets

Blue Jays @ Rockies | YRFI (-150)
Projection: 65% chance of RUN with a $11.33 EV

Astros @ Marlins | NRFI (-105)
Projection: 53% chance of NO RUN with a $3.71 EV

Guardians @ Mets | YRFI (-105)
Projection: 52% chance of RUN with a $2.46 EV

Fantasy baseball lineup advice and betting tips for Monday

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