The latest Freight Forecast: Rate and Volume OUTLOOK from ACT Research warns of freight market volatility as recent tariffs begin to affect inventory and demand patterns. Although most freight remains domestic, international trade disruptions and pre-tariff buying may lead to a weaker peak season.
Soft Peak Season Expected After Pull-Forwards
Tim Denoyer, Vice President and Senior Analyst at ACT Research, said the impacts of the new tariffs are already visible. “Tariff impacts will be limited by the 75-80% of freight already made and consumed domestically, but the impacts on international trade have been and will continue to be significant.”
He added that after freight volume increased earlier in the year due to pre-tariff inventory building, the market will likely experience a payback period. “Uncertainty may be starting to decline, but after pre-tariff inventory building in the first half, the paybacks from these pull-forwards will likely start soon, leading to a short and soft peak season.”
Class 8 Sales, Capacity Trends
Freight rates weakened after Roadcheck in mid-May, with a brief increase in early July demand already fading. Despite seasonal expectations, capacity remained available due in part to higher-than-expected Class 8 tractor sales in Q2. Denoyer said this likely reflects fleets acquiring units ahead of tariff pricing changes.
He noted that while demand faces headwinds, the market may soon shift. “Soft used tractor day cab prices also suggest private fleets are starting to reverse course, suggesting tighter capacity ahead.”
Driver Supply May Begin to Tighten
Denoyer also pointed to a shift in driver availability. “Our Driver Availability Index started to tighten this month for the first time in over three years as well, and these supply factors should limit the downside for freight rates.”
As equipment sales slow and capacity tightens, ACT also suggested that rate declines may moderate heading into the second half of the year.