The Astros’ window to extend Cam Smith is closing. Will they even try?

HOUSTON — Cam Smith is an archetype for how general manager Dana Brown planned to build a ballclub. Smith is a 23-year-old outfielder with overwhelming tools, a precocious personality and the profile of a future superstar, the sort of player Brown promised to procure and make a permanent piece of the Houston Astros.

“Cam is a specimen,” third baseman Carlos Correa said. “He’s a special talent. He’s got a chance to make really good money. He’s got everything. He’s got the physicality. He’s got the tools. But he’s also got the mentality to be great. You only see that in a few players.”

Some in that group are already making really good money.

Last year, after the first 46 games of Roman Anthony’s rookie season, the Boston Red Sox gave him $130 million. Earlier this month, the Pittsburgh Pirates paid Konnor Griffin $140 million following his first weekend in the big leagues. On Tuesday, the Detroit Tigers guaranteed Kevin McGonigle $150 million after 77 major-league plate appearances.

Smith played his 153rd major-league game on Thursday while still making the league minimum. Pursuing an extension with him seems obvious — and perhaps should’ve started in earnest last spring, when Brown decided to carry Smith on Houston’s Opening Day roster despite 32 games of professional experience.

When they didn’t, a window for the Astros to sign Smith on their own terms started to narrow. A brilliant beginning to Smith’s sophomore season is threatening to close it and continue a common refrain throughout this golden era.

“I’ve definitely thought about (a contract extension),” Smith said Thursday. “But, honestly, just showing up every day and continuing to help these guys win is at the top of my list. I can’t say I’ve had any talks about it, but just showing up every day and trying to win.”

Each productive plate appearance or prolific catch in right field increases Smith’s value, perhaps to a price point outside of Houston’s comfort zone. So do recent deals for McGonigle and Griffin, two players who are younger than Smith but with far less major-league experience.

If McGonigle received $150 million after 17 major-league games, what may Smith merit after 153 games in which he’s accrued 2.3 wins above replacement and been a Gold Glove finalist?

Kevin McGonigle became the latest rising young star to receive an early contract extension. (Gregory Shamus / Getty Images)

For an Astros franchise that has never guaranteed a player more than $151 million or, under owner Jim Crane, given a contract extension longer than six years, it is a sobering thought.

“These are players with 15 games making a lot of money, which is great for us players, but also when you get a player like Cam, a player like (Jeremy) Peña, they look at this and it waters their mouth a little bit,” Correa said with a grin.

Few players epitomize the Astros’ plight more than Correa. Failing to extend him before the 2021 season put Houston in a place it isn’t comfortable: bidding in free agency against franchises with a bigger appetite to spend.

During Crane’s ownership tenure, the Astros have never given a free-agent contract longer than five years or worth more than $95 million. Operating within these parameters only intensifies the need for early action, be it with pre-free agency contract extensions or a player development pipeline that produces enough prospects to replace players Crane chooses not to pay.

Crane hired Brown, a longtime scout and talent evaluator, to address both issues. Braggadocio and bold ideas have defined Brown’s tenure, which began with him telling Crane to “fasten your seat belt, because it’s time.” At the time, Crane said he hired Brown as his general manager, in part, due to the Atlanta Braves’ ability “to extend some of their player contracts” while Brown worked there.

“I think Jim and I are going to meet somewhere in the middle,” Brown said in 2023. “I’m more on the aggressive side of signing him. He may be more on the conservative side, but he’s very open to getting these players signed.”

Brown is in the final season of a four-year contract.

“You have to evaluate players, and you have to say to yourself, ‘Do I see this player as part of the franchise, and can he make a difference?’ Once you make that decision, I think you owe it to the fan base to try to go after them, to lock the player up so your players are not walking out the door and your team falls off a cliff,” Brown said.

Under Brown’s watch, two Astros have received extensions: franchise cornerstone Jose Altuve and pitcher Cristian Javier, who has a 4.78 ERA in 49 starts since signing it. Atlanta signed seven players to contract extensions during Brown’s four-year tenure as their vice president of scouting, though Brown has since distanced himself from some of the contracts.

“Alex (Anthopoulos) was the boss there. I don’t know if I would have done those deals because I’m just not a 10-year guy,” he said in 2023.

Failing to match Atlanta’s extension frenzy is not itself an indictment of Brown’s acumen. This is Crane’s money, and he offers final approval of how to spend it. That he has self-imposed restrictions on contract length and worth can’t make Brown’s job easier, either, but that underscores the urgency needed to pursue extensions earlier.

When player retention is a platform around which both Brown and Crane tried to build this tenure, the optics are, at best, awkward. There have been attempts. Last season, a legitimate one to extend Peña fell apart. Ace right-hander Hunter Brown sought an extension after the 2023 season but never received real reciprocation, according to multiple league sources.

The boldest move of Brown’s tenure as general manager arrived after another failed extension attempt. In 2023, Brown claimed that Kyle Tucker “would be a Houston Astro for his career.” He could not fulfill the promise, and two years later, he traded Tucker to the Chicago Cubs.

The decision arrived, in part, after the Astros realized they were priced out of Tucker’s services. Houston also had to replenish a fallow farm system, which cemented Smith as the centerpiece of its return.

Now, might Smith face a similar trajectory to Tucker?